Sustainable External Debt Levels : Estimates for Selected Asian Countries

High ratios of external debt to GDP in selected Asian countries have contributed to the initiation, propagation, and severity of the financial and economic crises in recent years, reflecting runaway fiscal deficits and excessive foreign borrowing by the private sector. Applying the formal framework proposed by Villanueva (2003) to a selected group of Asian countries, the research estimates the external debt thresholds beyond which further debt accumulation will have negative effects on growth and will become unsustainable. The framework is an extension of the standard neoclassical growth model that incorporates global capital markets. Sustainability is measured in terms of the steady-state ratio of the stock of external debt to GDP, as functions of real world interest rates, risk spreads and their responsiveness to external debt burdens and market perceptions of country risk, marginal propensities to save out of national disposable income and foreign borrowing, rates of technical change, and parameters of the production function. The major policy implications are that in the long run, fiscal consolidation and the promotion of private saving are critical, and that reliance on foreign saving in a globalized financial world has limits, particularly when the risk spreads are positively correlated with rising external debt levels.GDP, financial and economic crises, neoclassical growth model

Sustainable External Debt Levels: Estimates for Selected Asian Countries

High ratios of external debt to GDP in selected Asian countries have contributed to the initiation, propagation, and severity of the financial and economic crises in recent years, reflecting runaway fiscal deficits and excessive foreign borrowing by the private sector. Applying the formal framework proposed by Villanueva (2003) to a selected group of Asian countries, the research estimates the external debt thresholds beyond which further debt accumulation will have negative effects on growth and will become unsustainable. The framework is an extension of the standard neoclassical growth model that incorporates global capital markets. ‘Sustainability’ is measured in terms of the steady-state ratio of the stock of external debt to GDP, as functions of real world interest rates, risk spreads and their responsiveness to external debt burdens and market perceptions of country risk, marginal propensities to save out of national disposable income and foreign borrowing, rates of technical change, and parameters of the production function. The major policy implications are that in the long run, fiscal consolidation and the promotion of private saving are critical, and that reliance on foreign saving in a globalized financial world has limits, particularly when the risk spreads are positively correlated with rising external debt levels.

External Debt, Adjustment, and Growth

High ratios of external debt to GDP in selected Asian countries have contributed to the initiation, propagation, and severity of the financial and economic crises in recent years, reflecting runaway fiscal deficits and excessive foreign borrowing by the private sector. More importantly, the servicing of large debt stocks has diverted scarce resources from investment and long-term growth. Applying and calibrating the formal framework proposed by Villanueva (2003) to Philippine data, we explore the joint dynamics of external debt, capital accumulation, and growth. The relative simplicity of the model makes it convenient to analyze the links between domestic adjustment policies, foreign borrowing, and growth. We estimate the optimal domestic saving rate that is consistent with maximum real consumption per unit of effective labor in the long run. As a by-product, we estimate the steady-state ratio of net external debt to GDP that is associated with this optimal outcome. The framework is an extension of the standard neoclassical growth model that incorporates endogenous technical change and global capital markets. The major policy implications are that in the long run, fiscal adjustment and the promotion of private saving are critical; reliance on foreign saving in a globalized financial world has limits; and when risk spreads are highly and positively correlated with rising external debt levels, unabated foreign borrowing depresses long run welfare.

FINANCE AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH

In a two-class growth model of Pasinetti (1962), there is no financial intermediary that mobilizes bank deposits to be lent to the capitalist class for physical investment. The absence of a capital market also precludes workers from buying capitalists’ new issues of stocks and bonds to finance investment. Thus, the equilibrium rate of return to capital is independent of the saving rate of the working class—what Samuelson and Modigliani (1966) referred to as the Pasinetti paradox. In this paper’s modified Pasinetti framework with endogenous growth, the equilibrium rate of return to capital is shown to be a function of all structural parameters, including both saving rates of the capitalist and working classes. Additionally, the modified model explains the recessionary dynamics of the 2007/2008 global and regional financial crises. Implications for growth policies are drawn

CAPITAL AND GROWTH

  This paper develops and discusses a neoclassical growth model with two inputs: physical capital stock and combined stock of human and intellectual capital.  The production process is subject to diminishing returns to capital in perfect markets, in sharp contrast to new endogenous growth models that assume increasing returns to capital in imperfect markets.  The model finds that a high saving rate raises both transitional and steady state growth rates of output through increases in physical, human, and intellectual investments that augment labor productivity—a key extension of the Solow (1956)-Swan (1956) growth model.  Additionally, the paper derives an optimal rule for choosing the saving rate that maximizes consumer welfare.  Implications for growth policies are drawn.This paper develops and discusses a neoclassical growth model with two inputs: physical capital stock and combined stock of human and intellectual capital.  The production process is subject to diminishing returns to capital in perfect markets, in sharp contrast to new endogenous growth models that assume increasing returns to capital in imperfect markets.  The model finds that a high saving rate raises both transitional and steady state growth rates of output through increases in physical, human, and intellectual investments that augment labor productivity—a key extension of the Solow (1956)-Swan (1956) growth model.  Additionally, the paper derives an optimal rule for choosing the saving rate that maximizes consumer welfare.  Implications for growth policies are drawn

A MODIFIED NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL WITH ENDOGENOUS LABOR PARTICIPATION

In light of robust econometric results on the determinants of labor participation in 36 advanced economies reported by Grigoli et al. (2018) and independently by CBO (2018), my paper modifies the Solow (1956) - Swan (1956), or S-S, growth model by making endogenous the rate of labor participation (exogenously fixed at a constant fraction of population in the S-S model). By allowing a fully adjusting natural rate, I find that the positive growth effects of a higher saving rate hold in the transition to and in the steady state (a generalization of the S-S model).In light of robust econometric results on the determinants of labor participation in 36 advanced economies reported by Grigoli et al. (2018) and independently by CBO (2018), my paper modifies the Solow (1956) - Swan (1956), or S-S, growth model by making endogenous the rate of labor participation (exogenously fixed at a constant fraction of population in the S-S model). By allowing a fully adjusting natural rate, I find that the positive growth effects of a higher saving rate hold in the transition to and in the steady state (a generalization of the S-S model)

Financial System Soundness and Risk-Based Supervision

This volume contains selected papers presented at the Eleventh SEACEN Meeting of Directors of Supervision held in Kuala Lumpur, 8-10 October 1997. It covers an opening address and introduction; financial system soundness and monetary and supervisory policies; approaches to risk-based supervision; the case for an international banking standard; and, a conclusion.

The Microeconomic Dimension of Monetary Policy

This paper which touches on the links between the macroeconomic and microeconomic dimensions of monetary management, argues that bank soundness is a sine quo non of price stability (or exchange rate stability), and vice versa. It then describes the structural weaknesses of a banking system that create conditions for a financial crisis. The paper concludes by describing how official oversight can buttress market discipline, given some externalities inherent in the banking industry and the public goods nature of banking soundness.