Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan.

INTRODUCTION: Despite progress made in child survival in the past 20 years, 5.9 million children under five years died in 2015, with 9% of these deaths due to diarrhea. Rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of diarrhea deaths. In 2013, rotavirus was estimated to cause 215,000 deaths among children under five years, including 89,000 in Asia. As of April 2017, 92 countries worldwide have introduced rotavirus vaccination in their national immunization program. Afghanistan has applied for Gavi support to introduce rotavirus vaccination nationally. This study estimates the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of a national rotavirus immunization program in Afghanistan. METHODS: This study examined the use of Rotarix® (RV1) administered using a two-dose schedule at 6 and 10 weeks of age. We used the ProVac Initiative's UNIVAC model (version 1.2.09) to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccine program compared with no vaccine over ten birth cohorts from 2017 to 2026 with a 3% annual discount rate. All monetary units are adjusted to 2017 US$. RESULTS: Rotavirus vaccination in Afghanistan has the potential to avert more than one million cases; 660,000 outpatient visits; approximately 50,000 hospital admissions; 650,000 DALYs; and 12,000 deaths, over 10 years. Not accounting for any Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination can avert DALYs at US$82/DALY from the government perspective and US$80/DALY from the societal perspective. With Gavi support, DALYs can be averted at US$29/DALY and US$31/DALY from the societal and government perspective, respectively. The average yearly cost of a rotavirus vaccination program would represent 2.8% of the total immunization budget expected in 2017 and 0.1% of total health expenditure. CONCLUSION: The introduction of rotavirus vaccination would be highly cost-effective in Afghanistan, and even more so with a Gavi subsidy

Cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid conjugate vaccines in an outbreak setting: a modeling study

BackgroundSeveral prolonged typhoid fever epidemics have been reported since 2010 throughout eastern and southern Africa, including Malawi, caused by multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi. The World Health Organization recommends the use of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in outbreak settings; however, current data are limited on how and when TCVs might be introduced in response to outbreaks.MethodologyWe developed a stochastic model of typhoid transmission fitted to data from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital in Blantyre, Malawi from January 1996 to February 2015. We used the model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies over a 10-year time horizon in three scenarios: (1) when an outbreak is likely to occur; (2) when an outbreak is unlikely to occur within the next ten years; and (3) when an outbreak has already occurred and is unlikely to occur again. We considered three vaccination strategies compared to the status quo of no vaccination: (a) preventative routine vaccination at 9 months of age; (b) preventative routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign to 15 years of age; and (c) reactive vaccination with a catch-up campaign to age 15 (for Scenario 1). We also explored variations in outbreak definitions, delays in implementation of reactive vaccination, and the timing of preventive vaccination relative to the outbreak.ResultsAssuming an outbreak occurs within 10 years, we estimated that the various vaccination strategies would prevent a median of 15-60% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Reactive vaccination was the preferred strategy for WTP values of $0-300 per DALY averted. For WTP values >$300, introduction of preventative routine TCV immunization with a catch-up campaign was the preferred strategy. Routine vaccination with a catch-up campaign was cost-effective for WTP values above $890 per DALY averted if no outbreak occurs and >$140 per DALY averted if implemented after the outbreak has already occurred.ConclusionsCountries for which the spread of antimicrobial resistance is likely to lead to outbreaks of typhoid fever should consider TCV introduction. Reactive vaccination can be a cost-effective strategy, but only if delays in vaccine deployment are minimal; otherwise, introduction of preventive routine immunization with a catch-up campaign is the preferred strategy

Re-evaluating the cost and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh, Ghana, and Malawi: A comparison of three rotavirus vaccines

INTRODUCTION: Diarrhea is a leading cause of mortality worldwide and rotavirus accounts for many of these deaths. As of August 2018, 96 countries have introduced rotavirus vaccines into their immunization programs. Two rotavirus vaccines, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, have been WHO-prequalified since 2009, with Rotarix® being the preferred product of most Gavi-supported countries. ROTAVAC® and ROTASIIL® have both been prequalified recently. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reevaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh, Ghana, and Malawi and compared Rotarix®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® in each country. For consistency with previously published analyses in these countries, we used the same Excel-based cohort model and much of the same data as the original analyses. We varied the expected price (with and without Gavi subsidy), wastage, and incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. We assumed the same efficacy and waning assumptions following administration of two or three doses for the respective product. RESULTS: The discounted cost per DALY averted compared to no vaccination ranged from 0.3 to 1.3 times GNI per capita for each vaccine. With the Gavi subsidy, the average cost-effectiveness ratios were below 0.3 times GNI per capita in all three countries. Though critical empirical cost data are not yet available, Rotarix® is the least costly and most cost-effective product in the countries examined in this modelling study. However, small decreases in the incremental health system cost for other products could result in cost and cost-effectiveness outcomes that match or surpass those of Rotarix®. CONCLUSION: Countries may wish to consider new rotavirus vaccines entering the market. Countries should carefully examine multiple product attributes including price and the incremental health system costs associated with each vaccine. These costs will vary by country and may be a defining factor in determining the least costly and most cost-effective product for the population

Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality

Objectives: We estimated the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on deaths among children under five years old by year. Methods: We used a proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate rotavirus deaths prevented by vaccination over the period 2006-2019 in 186 countries. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses and compared our estimates to surveillance-based estimates in 20 countries. Results: We estimate that rotavirus vaccines prevented 139,000 under-five rotavirus deaths (95% uncertainty interval 98,000-201,000) in the period 2006-2019. In 2019 alone, rotavirus vaccines prevented 15% (95% uncertainty interval 11-21%) of under-five rotavirus deaths (0.5% of child mortality). Assuming global use of rotavirus vaccines and coverage equivalent to other co-administered vaccines could prevent 37% of under-five rotavirus deaths (1.2% of child mortality). Our estimates were sensitive to the choice of rotavirus mortality burden data and several vaccine impact modeling assumptions. The World Health Organization's recommendation to remove age restrictions in 2012 could have prevented up to 17,000 rotavirus deaths in the period 2013-2019. Our modeled estimates of rotavirus vaccine impact were broadly consistent with estimates from post-vaccination surveillance sites. Conclusion: Rotavirus vaccines have made a valuable contribution to global public health. Enhanced rotavirus mortality prevention strategies are needed in countries with high mortality in under-5-year-old children

Typhoid fever.

Typhoid fever is an invasive bacterial disease associated with bloodstream infection that causes a high burden of disease in Africa and Asia. Typhoid primarily affects individuals ranging from infants through to young adults. The causative organism, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhi is transmitted via the faecal-oral route, crossing the intestinal epithelium and disseminating to systemic and intracellular sites, causing an undifferentiated febrile illness. Blood culture remains the practical reference standard for diagnosis of typhoid fever, where culture testing is available, but novel diagnostic modalities are an important priority under investigation. Since 2017, remarkable progress has been made in defining the global burden of both typhoid fever and antimicrobial resistance; in understanding disease pathogenesis and immunological protection through the use of controlled human infection; and in advancing effective vaccination programmes through strategic multipartner collaboration and targeted clinical trials in multiple high-incidence priority settings. This Primer thus offers a timely update of progress and perspective on future priorities for the global scientific community