Identifying Key Sectors in the Regional Economy: A Network Analysis Approach Using Input-Output Data

By applying network analysis techniques to large input-output system, we identify key sectors in the local/regional economy. We overcome the limitations of traditional measures of centrality by using random-walk based measures, as an extension of Blochl et al. (2011). These are more appropriate to analyze very dense networks, i.e. those in which most nodes are connected to all other nodes. These measures also allow for the presence of recursive ties (loops), since these are common in economic systems (depending to the level of aggregation, most firms buy from and sell to other firms in the same industrial sector). The centrality measures we present are well suited for capturing sectoral effects missing from the usual output and employment multipliers. We also develop an R package (xtranat) for the processing of data from IMPLAN(R) models and for computing the newly developed measures

Regional Economic Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise in San Diego County

One of the consequences of climate change and sea level rise that has not been extensively examined is the possible damages that can be done to regional economies. Even under scenarios of relatively small sea level rise, areas historically at risk from flooding will find flooding increasing as storms increase in frequency and severity. The result will likely be temporary disruptions of business activity lasting days to weeks. Climate change and accompanying higher sea levels will mean increasing severity of flood risk that will well to areas that have been historically immune to flooding. The cumulative effect of these flood threats poses a significant risk to the San Diego County economy. To investigate these vulnerabilities, the San Diego Regional Climate Collaborative engaged the Center for the Blue Economy of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey to investigate the potential effects from climate change and projected sea level rise, and coastal storms on the economy of San Diego County. The importance of assessing these vulnerabilities arises because San Diego County is the 17th largest metropolitan area in the country and the 5th largest in California. San Diego County has a GDP that is larger than 25 other states. Much of this economy is located near the ocean and bays. In 2014, the 30 zip codes in the county that are adjacent to the shore were the location of over 34,000 employment establishments, with over 543,000 employees accounting for nearly $30 billion in wages and salaries. These zip codes accounted for 42% of county employment establishments, 46% of employment, and 50% of county wages & salaries. This report consists of a regional economic vulnerability assessment using flooding projections developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal Storm Modeling System and economic activity and asset data available for San Diego County. The economic vulnerability assessment seeks to identify whether important parts of the economic base of the region (the industries which sell outside the region) are vulnerable and where adaptation strategies may be needed to sustain commercial and industrial activity. This type of vulnerability assessment does not forecast specific impacts, but points to possible effects of the conditions that define the scenario. It is designed to alert about possible future issues and highlight aspects that require priority attention in planning. It does not consider planned adaptation strategies, which many jurisdictions in the region are currently working on but seeks to help inform those planning efforts. Vulnerability was identified by spatially analyzing the relationship between potential flooding projected by the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) under assumptions of no sea level rise, 1 meter (39.7” or 3.3. feet) of sea level rise and 2 meters (78.7” or 6.6 feet). These assumptions are generally consistent with other sea level rise vulnerability assessments conducted by jurisdictions in the San Diego region that assume between 1.5 to 2 feet of sea level rise by 2050 and 3 to 6.6 feet by 2100

An Integrated Climate Science-Economic Model for Evaluating Adaptations to Sea Level Rise: A Prototype Model for Monterey, California

Preparing for flooding that will be exacerbated by climate change and sea level rise must take place in the context of deep uncertainty . One strategy for dealing with that uncertainty is to convert unknown probabilities into know probabilities using techniques such as Monte Carlo analysis. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating a cost-benefit model for sea level rise adaptation options using an integrated climate change/sea level rise-weather-economic model. The model tests the probability of benefits exceeding costs for shoreline protection such as beach nourishment and armoring under multiple iterations of possible climate futures. It uses shoreline segments in Monterey, California as a test area. The results of the tests indicate action should be taken sooner rather than later to increase the probability of a positive NPV. The need for further refinement and extension of the model is discussed

Economic Impacts of Climate Adaptation Strategies for Southern Monterey Bay

Local governments along Monterey Bay’s shores are undertaking a number of initiatives for which sea level rise adaptation planning is required. Governor Schwarzenegger’s 2008 Executive Order S-13-08 and the 2011 Resolution of the California Ocean Protection Council on sea level rise led to the proliferation of individual agency guidance documents (e.g., CalTrans (2011), BCDC (2011), CCC (2015)) that require emerging best available science (e.g., Pacific Institute Report (Heberger et al. 2009), NRC Report (2012)). These guidance documents stipulate that sea level rise and coastal hazards need to be considered in planning (e.g., Climate Action Compact, Climate Action Plans, Integrated Regional Water Management Plans, Local Hazard Mitigation Plans, Local Coastal Programs). Moreover, the California Coastal Commission has recently issued guidance indicating that sea level rise adaptation planning will be a critical piece of Local Coastal Programs going forward. As Ocean Protection Council (OPC)/California Coastal Commission (CCC) Local Coastal Program Update grantees, Monterey and Santa Cruz Counties serve as important pilots for the rest of California’s coastal communities as the state moves toward climate-ready planning. For years, scientists have emphasized the need to put detailed, dynamic inundation information in the hands of decision-makers in order to support this planning. This information should characterize the physical risk of sea level rise and storms in order to inform coastal managers. Detailed economic analysis, while not completely absent, has lagged behind. Many past studies have focused on the cost of sea level rise, or in some cases estimated the economic benefits of a single adaptation strategy (armoring). The southern Monterey Bay shore is, on average, the most erosive sandy shore in California (Hapke et al. 2006). The purpose of this study is to provide decision makers in the region with the tools they need to compare a suite of possible adaptation strategies to combat accelerating coastal erosion for their coastline. The physical process modeling projects how the coast would change in response to the implementation of each of these strategies, considering different rates of coastal erosion and flood hazards as well as sea level rise under several different sea level rise projections. This study also analyzes the economic costs and benefits of each adaptation approach, allowing decision makers to compare how the different management strategies will impact their jurisdiction economically as well as physically. This study provides a detailed, integrated analysis of the costs and benefits of a range of coastal climate change adaptation strategies at four reaches in southern Monterey Bay (Figure 1), given a range of sea level rise projections. We consider a wide range of costs and benefits including losses to private property, to public goods such as recreational resources, and to the ecological function of coastal habitats. With extensive stakeholder input, we chose realistic alternative shoreline management strategies specific to discrete reaches of coastline in the study area. By combining projections of coastal hazard impacts (such as sea level rise, erosion, storm surge, wave impacts, etc.) with economic analyses of the impact on both at-risk human-made infrastructure (buildings, roads, etc.) and natural capital (ecological function and recreational assets), we estimated the value of various adaptation approaches for each reach. This information will give coastal managers the information they need to compare the benefits and impacts of different adaptation approaches and develop adaptation plans for their jurisdictions

Assessment of the Economic Impact of Huanglongbing (HLB) disease on Mexico's Citrus Chain

In this article, the authors assess the economic impact that HLB could have on Mexico’s citrus chain, and compare the preventive and control measures that different countries have adopted. The assessment of economic impact was carried out at three levels: primary fruit production, agro-industrial operations and the economy as a whole. The results suggest that the volume and value of the production of citrus fruits and their byproducts would be affected, as would employment (on farms and in agro-industrial operations and related businesses) and the foreign exchange earned by exports of fresh and processed citrus fruits. Other factors highlighted by the study are the high risk of an epidemic and the potential economic impact in the states of Veracruz, Colima and Michoacán, in the Pacific coastal region and in the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as less serious effects on quality, the amount of raw material available and the turnover of packing and processing plants. The study indicates that the primary sector would be the hardest hit by direct losses, with a decline in the value of production, employment, wages, food products, beverages and tobacco. Mexico responded immediately to the outbreaks of HLB that occurred in July 2009 in the Yucatan Peninsula,instituting an emergency plan to mitigate the risk of the entry and spread of the disease

Evaluación del impacto económico de Huanglongbing (HLB) en la cadena citrícola Mexicana

Presenta los antecedentes de l HLB. Menciona la importancia de la actividad citrícola en México. Explica la metodología del estudio y el análisis epidemiológico del HBL en el sector primario de los cítricos mexicanos. Evalúa los impactos económicos del HBL en la industria citrícola, así como lel impacto en la economía mexicana. Analiza las medidas preventivas y de control del HLB en México y otros países