Minding impacting events in a model of stochastic variance

We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a variety of systems impacting events are hardly forgot, we split the process into two different regimes: a first one for regular periods where the average volatility of the fluctuations within a certain period of time is below a certain threshold and another one when the local standard deviation outnumbers it. In the former situation we use standard rules for heteroscedastic processes whereas in the latter case the system starts recalling past values that surpassed the threshold. Our results show that for appropriate parameter values the model is able to provide fat tailed probability density functions and strong persistence of the instantaneous variance characterised by large values of the Hurst exponent is greater than 0.8, which are ubiquitous features in complex systems.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. To published in PLoS on

Entropy production and coarse graining of the climate fields in a general circulation model

We extend the analysis of the thermodynamics of the climate system by investigating the role played by processes taking place at various spatial and temporal scales through a procedure of coarse graining. We show that the coarser is the graining of the climatic fields, the lower is the resulting estimate of the material entropy production. In other terms, all the spatial and temporal scales of variability of the thermodynamic fields provide a positive contribution to the material entropy production. This may be interpreted also as that, at all scales, the temperature fields and the heating fields resulting from the convergence of turbulent fluxes have a negative correlation, while the opposite holds between the temperature fields and the radiative heating fields. Moreover, we obtain that the latter correlations are stronger, which confirms that radiation acts as primary driver for the climatic processes, while the material fluxes dampen the resulting fluctuations through dissipative processes. We also show, using specific coarse-graining procedures, how one can separate the various contributions to the material entropy production coming from the dissipation of kinetic energy, the vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the large scale horizontal fluxes, without resorting to the full three-dimensional time dependent fields. We find that most of the entropy production is associated to irreversible exchanges occurring along the vertical direction, and that neglecting the horizontal and time variability of the fields has a relatively small impact on the estimate of the material entropy production. The approach presented here seems promising for testing climate models, for assessing the impact of changing their parametrizations and their resolution, as well as for investigating the atmosphere of exoplanets, because it allows for evaluating the error in the estimate of their thermodynamical properties due to the lack of high-resolution data. The findings on the impact of coarse graining on the thermodynamic fields on the estimate of the material entropy production deserve to be explored in a more general context, because they provide a way for understanding the relationship between forced fluctuations and dissipative processes in continuum systems

Truth tracking performance of social networks: how connectivity and clustering can make groups less competent

Our beliefs and opinions are shaped by others, making our social networks crucial in determining what we believe to be true. Sometimes this is for the good because our peers help us form a more accurate opinion. Sometimes it is for the worse because we are led astray. In this context, we address via agent-based computer simulations the extent to which patterns of connectivity within our social networks affect the likelihood that initially undecided agents in a network converge on a true opinion following group deliberation. The model incorporates a fine-grained and realistic representation of belief (opinion) and trust, and it allows agents to consult outside information sources. We study a wide range of network structures and provide a detailed statistical analysis concerning the exact contribution of various network metrics to collective competence. Our results highlight and explain the collective risks involved in an overly networked or partitioned society. Specifically, we find that 96% of the variation in collective competence across networks can be attributed to differences in amount of connectivity (average degree) and clustering, which are negatively correlated with collective competence. A study of bandwagon or “group think” effects indicates that both connectivity and clustering increase the probability that the network, wholly or partly, locks into a false opinion. Our work is interestingly related to Gerhard Schurz’s work on meta-induction and can be seen as broadly addressing a practical limitation of his approach

On comparing the accuracy of default predictions in the rating industry

Credit rating, Probability forecasts, Calibration,

Detection of proteases using an immunochemical method with haptenylated–gelatin as a solid-phase substrate.

A simplified method for the measurement of proteases utilising solid-phase substrates incorporating an ELISA end-point detection step is described. Gelatin–hapten conjugates adsorbed onto polystyrene surfaces were found to be efficient substrates for proteases. Digestion of the solid-phase protein–hapten complexes resulted in proportional desorption of the attached conjugates and decrease in the detectable hapten species. Gelatin–cholic acid conjugates, affinity-purified sheep anti-cholic acid antibody–HRP and a chromogenic substrate were incorporated into a convenient and highly sensitive solid-phase immunochemical method. The detectable signal is inversely proportional to enzyme activity. Bacterial proteases (alpha-chymotrypsin Type II, Type IX from Bacillus polymyxa, Type XIV from Streptomyces griseus, Type XXIV from Bacillus licheniformens) were assayed. Dose–response curves for enzyme activities were measured within ranges of 0–550 µunits mL−1 for chymotrypsin, 0–12 µunits mL−1 for type IX, 0–35 µunits mL−1 for type XIV and 0–100 µunits mL−1 for type XXIV. The detection limits of the proteases studied were 89 µunits mL−1 for chymotrypsin, 0.26 µunits mL−1 for type IX, 5.8 µunits mL−1 for type XIV and 6.5 µunits mL−1 for type XXIV. It was demonstrated that the two-step immunochemical method combines the simplicity and sensitivity of solid-phase enzyme immunoassays, the broad specificity of gelatin as a protease substrate and the flexibility of the solid-phase format