The Demand for Children in a "Natural Fertility" Population

The paper is concerned with two theories that proport to explain fertility variations In developing countries. The first of these theories is based on supply or natural fertility considerations while the second looks to (the underlying) costs and benefits of children as one Source explanation for fertility differences. These theories indicate that demand consideration do explain some of the systematic variation in fertility even among "noncontracepting" populations

A Tale of Two Countries: Indonesia and Kazakhstan; So Different, But So the Same

This paper sheds light on two development success stories that because autocratic leaders orchestrated them seldom get the attention they deserve. Indonesia and Kazakhstan on the surface could not be more different, yet as an international development person who has worked extensively in both countries, they bear similarities that carry important lessons for the international development community and other developing countries. The starting point is the observation that both countries represent development successes absolutely and relative to their natural comparators. Among the key messages from these experiences is that there may be times in a countries development when a strong, benevolent autocratic ruler is a better governance model than democracy, contrary to the messages and beliefs of many western countries, most especially the United States.  Both Suharto in Indonesia and Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan were not afraid to surround themselves with and listen to world-class technocrats who for the most part supported highly conventional (Washington-consensus) development policies. The weakness in this development model is the end game. Strong autocrats who have created a country find it difficult to manage the “end game,” that is to orchestrate smooth transitions from their regime to what follows. When one adds to this that they also often keep institutions weak to avoid challenges to their power, the result is an often difficult and costly leadership transition. Moreover, the international community has not been helpful in providing advice on how to manage this transition. Keywords: Autocratic, development policy, Indonesia, Kazakhsta

On the care and handling of regression specifications in fertility research

Economists, sociologists and demographers must often attempt to answer important questions with data not well suited to the problem at hand. One example that crops up frequently in socio-economic-demographic literature is the use of samples of women, whose ages span the entire fecund period, to study the effects of couples' characteristics on "completed" fertility, or on the demand for children. In this case, the usual procedure is to control either for age or for duration of marriage, and to assume that issues concerned with timing and spacing of children can be ignored. Under this assumption, differences in the level of the stock of children among families at any point in time (any age) bear a one-to-one correspondence to differences in completed fertility observed at the end of the fertile period. In this paper, we explore some of the pitfalls researchers may encounter when using data with this characteristic, especially in the absence of exact knowledge of the functional form of the relationship between age or duration of marriage and other variables thought to affect actual fertility

Baseline study of Essential Ocean Variable monitoring in Irish waters; current measurement programmes & data quality

This report provides an initial assessment of Ireland’s current measurement programmes and capacity for Essential Ocean Variables (EOV) data collection. These are typically programmes that involve physical sampling of the marine environment, using a combination of ship-based measurements, fixed platforms e.g. tide and wave gauges, offshore buoys, autonomous platforms e.g. underwater gliders, and conventional collection of physical samples that are analysed on board ships or in shore-based laboratories. Systematic measurement of essential ocean variables underpins the delivery of services to government and the public in terms of real-time decision support, assessments of ocean health e.g. Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), Oslo & Paris Conventions (OSPAR), International Council on the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) and long-term observations to inform policy on marine climate change and provide climate information to guide related adaptation measures required under climate change sectoral adaptation plans e.g. seafood sector, transport, biodiversity, and built heritage

Fundamental questions and applications of sclerochronology: Community-defined research priorities

Horizon scanning is an increasingly common strategy to identify key research needs and frame future agendas in science. Here, we present the results of the first such exercise for the field of sclerochronology, thereby providing an overview of persistent and emergent research questions that should be addressed by future studies. Through online correspondence following the 5th International Sclerochronology Conference in 2019, participants submitted and rated questions that addressed either knowledge gaps or promising applications of sclerochronology. An initial list of 130 questions was compiled based on contributions of conference attendees and reviewed by expert panels formed during the conference. Herein, we present and discuss the 50 questions rated to be of the highest priority, determined through an online survey distributed to sclerochronology community members post the conference. The final list: (1) includes important questions related to mechanisms of biological control over biomineralization; (2) highlights state of the art applications of sclerochronological methods and data for solving long-standing questions in other fields such as climate science and ecology: and (3) emphasizes the need for common standards for data management and analysis. Although research priorities are continually reassessed, our list provides a roadmap that can be used to motivate research efforts and advance sclerochronology toward new, and more powerful, applications