Radial interpolation of GPS and leveling data of ground deformation in a resurgent caldera: application to Campi Flegrei (Italy)

This study presents a new method, called the Radial Interpolation Method, to interpolate data characterized by an approximately radial pattern around a relatively constrained central zone, such as the ground deformation patterns shown in many active volcanic areas. The method enables the fast production of short-term deformation maps on the base of spatially sparse ground deformation measurements and can provide uncertainty quantification on the interpolated values, fundamental for hazard assessment purposes and deformation source reconstruction. The presented approach is not dependent on a priori assumptions about the geometry, location and physical properties of the source, except for the requirement of a locally radial pattern, i.e., allowing multiple centers of symmetry. We test the new method on a synthetic point source example, and then, we apply the method to selected time intervals of real geodetic data collected at the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last 39 years, including examples of leveling, Geodetic Precise Traversing measurements and Global Positioning System. The maps of horizontal displacement, calculated inland, show maximum values lying along a semicircular annular region with a radius of about 2–3 km in size. This semi-annular area is marked by mesoscale structures such as faults, sand dikes and fractures. The maps of vertical displacement describe a linear relation between the maximum vertical uplift measured and the volume variation. The multiplicative factor in the linear relation is about 0.3 × 106 m3/cm if we estimate the proportion of the ΔV that is captured by the GPS network onland and we use this to estimate the full ΔV. In this case, the 95% confidence interval on K because of linear regression is ± 5%. Finally, we briefly discuss how the new method could be used for the production of short-term vent opening maps on the base of real-time geodetic measurements of the horizontal and vertical displacements

NeVoCGPS network: contributions to the Deformation Analysis in Neapolitan Volcanic area based on Continuous GPS measurements

Osservatorio Vesuviano, department of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, installed a permanent GPS network (NeVoCGPS), constituted of 25 stations, in Neapolitan volcanic area, where three active volcanoes (Somma-Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia Island) rise, each characterized by a peculiar type of ground movements activity. The Somma-Vesuvius system exhibits now a low level of ground deformation; the Campi Flegrei, caracterized from over 2000 years by slow up and down vertical movements (bradyseism), at present is in a very slow uplift phase; Ischia, finally, shows subsidence in the specific areas (Southern and North-West sectors of the island). The presence of these volcanoes and the dense urbanization of the area make the ground deformation monitoring a crucial point for risk mitigation and modelling aims. The 3D ground displacements are calculated using CGPS data, acquired with a 30s rate and with the daily and weekly vertexes position estimate. All the stations are managed by remote control and the data are automatically downloaded and processed using Bernese software package. The entire chain of acquisition, processing and data analysis is accurately described and some results obtained in the last years are shown

Concurrent deformation processes in the Matese massif area (Central-Southern Apennines, Italy)

We investigated the interseismic GPS velocity field across the transition zone between Central and Southern Apennine comprising the Meta–Mainarde-Venafro and Alto Molise–Sannio-Matese mounts. The kinematic field obtained by combining GPS network solutions is based on data collected by the unpublished episodic campaigns carried out on Southern Apennine Geodetic network (SAGNet from 2000 to 2013), IGM95 network (Giuliani et al., 2009 from 1994 to 2007) and continuous GPS stations. The data collected after the 29 December 2013 earthquake (Mw 5.0) until early 2014 allowed estimating displacements at 15 SAGNet stations. The extension rate computed across the Matese massif along an anti-Apennine profile is 2.0±0.2 mm/yr. The interseismic velocities projected along the profile show that the maximum extension does not follow the topographic high of the Apennines but is shifted toward the eastern outer belt. No significant GPS deformation corresponding to inner faults systems of the Matese massif is detected. Taking into account our results and other geophysical data, we propose a conceptual model, which identifies the 2013–2014 seismic sequence as not due to an extensional deformation style usual along the Apennine chain. In fact, we have measured too large “coseismic” displacements, that could be explained as the result of tectonic regional stress, CO2-rich fluid migration and elastic loading of water in the karst Matese massif. We recognized a tensile source as model of dislocation of 2013–2014 earthquakes. It represents a simplification of a main fault system and fracture zone affecting the Matese massif. The dislocation along NE-dipping North Matese Fault System (NMFS) could be the driving mechanism of the recent seismic sequences. Moreover, to the first time the SAGnet GPS data collected from 1994 to 2014, are share and available to the scientific community in the open access data archive.INGV and DPCS1-C1 - 2012-2021.Published2282342T. Deformazione crostale attivaJCR Journa

Review of multiple hazards in volcanic islands to enable the management of long-term risks: the cases of Ischia and Vulcano, Italy

The management of long-term volcanic risks represents a challenge that requires a close cooperation between science and decision-making. This is particularly crucial in volcanic islands, which are characterized by multiple hazards concentrated in a relatively small environment, often associated with a large seasonality of exposure due to tourism. The scientific challenges are mainly the quantification and the characterization of the interactions among the multiple hazardous phenomena that may occur during the different “states of thevolcano” (quiescence, unrest, eruption) and the definition of robust methods to forecast the transition between these states. For these topics, the emerging scientific knowledge is often rather limited and uncertain and, also in case it was well constrained, difficult to communicate to decision makers due to its intrinsic complexity. On the other side, the challenge for decision making is to assimilate this uncertain knowledgeand translate it into actions. Here, we discuss the experience gained in two working groups (WGs) in charge of reviewing the state of knowledge about volcanic hazards for the Italian volcanic islands of Ischia and Vulcano to build the scientific ground for subsequent decision making. These WGs, formed within the agreement between INGV and the Italian Civil Protection Department, involved about 20 researchers from INGV and Universities, as well as representatives of the Italian Civil Protection, to facilitate the reciprocal understanding and to address the work toward useful results for decision making. The WGs reviewed all the potential volcanic hazards for Ischia and Vulcano based on literature, results of previous projects, as well as ad hoc audits of other experts on specific topics, and organized a workshop to present the results and receive feedbacks from the extended scientific community

Four Years of Continuous Seafloor Displacement Measurements in the Campi Flegrei Caldera

We present 4 years of continuous seafloor deformation measurements carried out in the Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), one of the most hazardous and populated volcanic areas in the world. The seafloor sector of the caldera has been monitored since early 2016 by the MEDUSA marine research infrastructure, consisting of four instrumented buoys installed where sea depth is less than 100 m. Each MEDUSA buoy is equipped with a cabled, seafloor module with geophysical and oceanographic sensors and a subaerial GPS station providing seafloor deformation and other environmental measures. Since April 2016, the GPS vertical displacements at the four buoys show a continuous uplift of the seafloor with cumulative measured uplift ranging between 8 and 20 cm. Despite the data being affected by environmental noise associated with sea and meteorological conditions, the horizontal GPS displacements on the buoys show a trend coherent with a radial deformation pattern. We use jointly the GPS horizontal and vertical velocities of seafloor and on-land deformations for modeling the volcanic source, finding that a spherical source fits best the GPS data. The geodetic data produced by MEDUSA has now been integrated with the data flow of other monitoring networks deployed on land at Campi Flegrei

Escalating CO2 degassing at the Pisciarelli fumarolic system, and implications for the ongoing Campi Flegrei unrest

This short communication aims at providing an updated report on degassing activity and ground deformation variations observed during the ongoing (2012–2019) Campi Flegrei caldera unrest, with a particular focus on Pisciarelli, currently its most active fumarolic field.We show that the CO2 flux fromthe main Pisciarelli fumarolic vent (referred as “Soffione”) has increased by a factor N 3 since 2012, reaching in 2018–2019 levels (N600 tons/ day) that are comparable to those typical of a medium-sized erupting arc volcano. A substantial widening ofthe degassing vents and bubbling pools, and a further increase in CO2 concentrations in ambient air (up to 6000 ppm), have also been detected since mid-2018. We interpret this escalating CO2 degassing activity using a multidisciplinary dataset that includes thermodynamically estimated pressures for the source hydrothermal system, seismic and ground deformation data. From this analysis, we show that degassing, deformation and seis- micity have all reached in 2018–2019 levels never observed since the onset ofthe unrest in 2005, with an overall uplift of~57 cmand ~448 seismic events in the last year. The calculated pressure ofthe Campi Flegrei hydrother- mal system has reached ~44 bar and is rapidly increasing. Our results raise concern on the possible evolution of the Campi Flegrei unrest and reinforce the need for careful monitoring of the degassing activity at Pisciarelli, hopefully with the deployment of additional permanent gas monitoring units.Published151-1574V. Processi pre-eruttiviJCR Journa

Comment on “The 21 August 2017 M d 4.0 Casamicciola Earthquake: First Evidence of Coseismic Normal Surface Faulting at the Ischia Volcanic Island” by

We are writing this comment because many aspects of the analysis presented by Nappi et al. (2018) are debatable. In particular, a major issue is relevant to the conclusion suggested by Nappi et al. (2018) about a seismogenic normal fault with northward dip. This finding is not well‐founded because the authors do not really present a causative source model. In addition, their statement is clearly not consistent with the Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR), Global Positioning System (GPS) and seismological measurements presented in the article previously published by De Novellis et al. (2018). Moreover, we also report an evident error in the geologic map proposed by Nappi et al. (2018, their fig. 3).Published313-3156V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischioJCR Journa

The 21 August 2017 Ischia (Italy) Earthquake Source Model Inferred From Seismological, GPS, and DInSAR Measurements

The causative source of the first damaging earthquake instrumentally recorded in the Island of Ischia, occurred on 21 August 2017, has been studied through a multiparametric geophysical approach. In order to investigate the source geometry and kinematics we exploit seismological, Global Positioning System, and Sentinel-1 and COSMO-SkyMed differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar coseismic measurements. Our results indicate that the retrieved solutions from the geodetic data modeling and the seismological data are plausible; in particular, the best fit solution consists of an E-W striking, south dipping normal fault, with its center located at a depth of 800 m. Moreover, the retrieved causative fault is consistent with the rheological stratification of the crust in this zone. This study allows us to improve the knowledge of the volcano-tectonic processes occurring on the Island, which is crucial for a better assessment of the seismic risk in the area.Published2193-22023T. Sorgente sismicaJCR Journa