An early warning indicator for atmospheric blocking events using transfer operators

The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric flow regimes with time-scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transitions between them motivates to develop early warning indicators for such regime transitions. In this paper, we use a hemispheric barotropic model together with estimates of transfer operators on a reduced phase space to develop an early warning indicator of the zonal to blocked flow transition in this model. It is shown that, the spectrum of the transfer operators can be used to study the slow dynamics of the flow as well as the non-Markovian character of the reduction. The slowest motions are thereby found to have time scales of three to six weeks and to be associated with meta-stable regimes (and their transitions) which can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths. Even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty

Secondary teachers' perceptions of the effectiveness of their pre-service education and strategies to improve pre-service education for teachers: A school based training route in England

This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the impact of an EBITT course on teachers' early professional development, identify strengths of the course and also the ways in which the training could be improved. Data collected was recorded during individual face- to- face interviews using a structured interview schedule. In devising our approach we utilised the model suggested by Sharon Feiman-Nemser in her article How do Teachers Learn to Teach? in Cochran - Smith et. al. (2008) Handbook of Research on Teacher Education The data was analysed to explore (after 2-4 years reflection): • which elements of initial training were valuable and less valuable • what they have learned since the course • which aspects of the course the teachers feel should be improved It was cross referenced against findings from national surveys of teachers in their post qualifying year of teaching (induction year) and early years of teaching conducted by the TDA. These findings were presented as part of a common wider international study on the same theme in four countries (UK, Spain, Australia, and Ireland)

Catalogue of 12CO(J=1-0) and 13CO(J=1-0) Molecular Clouds in the Carina Flare Supershell

We present a catalogue of 12CO(J=1-0) and 13CO(J=1-0) molecular clouds in the spatio-velocity range of the Carina Flare supershell, GSH 287+04-17. The data cover a region of ~66 square degrees and were taken with the NANTEN 4m telescope, at spatial and velocity resolutions of 2.6' and 0.1 km/s. Decomposition of the emission results in the identification of 156 12CO clouds and 60 13CO clouds, for which we provide observational and physical parameters. Previous work suggests the majority of the detected mass forms part of a comoving molecular cloud complex that is physically associated with the expanding shell. The cloud internal velocity dispersions, degree of virialization and size-linewidth relations are found to be consistent with those of other Galactic samples. However, the vertical distribution is heavily skewed towards high-altitudes. The robust association of high-z molecular clouds with a known supershell provides some observational backing for the theory that expanding shells contribute to the support of a high-altitude molecular layer.Comment: To be published in PASJ Vol. 60, No. 6. (Issued on December 25th 2008). 35 pages (including 13 pages of tables), 7 figures. Please note that formatting problems with the journal macro result in loss of rightmost data columns in some long tables. These will be fixed in the final published issue. In the meantime, please contact the authors for missing dat

Geometry of Empty Space is the Key to Near-Arrest Dynamics

We study several examples of kinetically constrained lattice models using dynamically accessible volume as an order parameter. Thereby we identify two distinct regimes exhibiting dynamical slowing, with a sharp threshold between them. These regimes are identified both by a new response function in dynamically available volume, as well as directly in the dynamics. Results for the selfdiffusion constant in terms of the connected hole density are presented, and some evidence is given for scaling in the limit of dynamical arrest.Comment: 11 page

Abundant variation in microsatellites of the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis and linkage to a tandem repeat

An understanding of how genes move between and within populations of parasitic nematodes is important in combating the evolution and spread of anthelmintic resistance. Much has been learned by studying mitochondrial DNA markers, but autosomal markers such as microsatellites have been applied to only a few nematode species, despite their many advantages for studying gene flow in eukaryotes. Here, we describe the isolation of 307 microsatellites from Trichostrongylus tenuis, an intestinal nematode of red grouse. High levels of variation were revealed at sixteen microsatellite loci (including three sex-lined loci) in 111 male T. tenuis nematodes collected from four hosts at a single grouse estate in Scotland (average He = 0.708; mean number of alleles = 12.2). A population genetic analysis detected no deviation from panmixia either between (F(ST) = 0.00) or within hosts (F(IS) = 0.015). We discuss the feasibility of developing microsatellites in parasitic nematodes and the problem of null alleles. We also describe a novel 146-bp repeat element, TteREP1, which is linked to two-thirds of the microsatellites sequenced and is associated with marker development failure. The sequence of TteREP1 is related to the TcREP-class of repeats found in several other trichostrongyloid species including Trichostrongylus colubriformis and Haemonchus contortus

A Systems-Based Approach to the Identification of User/Infrastructure Interdependencies as a Precursor to Identifying Opportunities to Improve Infrastructure Project Value/Cost Ratios

The bulk of the investment needed for infrastructure renewal in the United Kingdom will have to come from private sector investors, who will require attractive value/cost ratios. Government recognises infrastructure interdependencies can help deliver these, but returns remain uncertain. New business models are required to overcome this problem, which take account of enterprise-centred infrastructure interdependencies (interdependencies between social and economic enterprises and the infrastructures they use). The complex and closely coupled nature of enterprise and infrastructure systems can stand in the way of identifying these interdependencies; however, model-based systems engineering techniques offer a framework for dealing with this complexity. This paper describes research that the iBUILD project is doing to develop a methodology for modelling the interdependencies between infrastructure and the enterprises that use it, as a precursor to identifying opportunities to improve infrastructure project value/cost ratios. The methodology involves: identifying the suite of policy, strategy and operational documents relating to the enterprise-of-interest; eliciting system data from the documents and integrating it to create an enterprise system model; and, generating N2 diagrams from the model to identify the interdependencies

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Urban Transport Infrastructure in the UK

Urban areas face many risks from future climate change and their infrastructure will be placed under more pressure due to changes in climate extremes. Using the Tyndall Centre Urban Integrated Assessment Framework, this paper describes a methodology used to assess the impacts of future climate extremes on transport infrastructure in London. Utilising high-resolution projections for future climate in the UK, alongside stochastic weather generators for downscaling, urban temperature and flooding models are used to provide information on the likelihood of future extremes. These are then coupled with spatial network models of urban transport infrastructure and, using thresholds to define the point at which systems cease to function normally, disruption to the networks can be simulated. Results are shown for both extreme heat and urban surface water flooding events and the impacts on the travelling population, in terms of both disruption time and monetary cost

Kinetics of the reduction of metalloproteins by chromous ion

The reduction of Cu(330) in Rhus vernicifera laccase by chromous ion is 30% faster than reduction of Cu(614) at room temperature [pH 4.8, µ = 0.1 (NaCl)], and two parallel first-order paths, attributed to heterogeneity of the protein, are observed at both wavelengths. The reactions of stellacyanin, spinach and French-bean plastocyanins, and cytochrome c with chromous ion under similar conditions are faster than that with laccase by factors of 102 to 104, and are first order in protein concentration. Comparison of rates and activation parameters for the reduction of "blue" copper in laccase, stellacyanin, and the two plastocyanins indicates that reduction of the Cu(614) site in laccase may occur by intramolecular electron transfer from one of the Cu(330) sites. Our value of ΔH (17.4 kcal/mol) for the chromous ion reduction of cytochrome c is consistent with a mechanism in which major conformational changes in the protein must accompany electron transfer