System dynamics advances strategic economic transition planning in a developing nation

The increasingly complex environment of today's world, characterized by technological innovation and global communication, generates myriads of possible and actual interactions while limited physical and intellectual resources severely impinge on decision makers, be it in the public or private domains. At the core of the decision-making process is the need for quality information that allows the decision maker to better assess the impact of decisions in terms of outcomes, nonlinear feedback processes and time delays on the performance of the complex system invoked. This volume is a timely review on the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic envrionments and of the various modeling approaches used. The book consists of five parts, each composed of several chapters: I: Complex Decision Making: Concepts, Theories and Empirical Evidence II: Tools and Techniques for Decision Making in Complex Environments and Systems III: System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling IV: Methodological Issues V: Future Direction

Chain friction system gives positive, reversible drive

By cementing a strip of an elastomer to the smooth metal rim of the pulley and neoprene covered idlers providing suitable tension to the chain around the pulley, a positive reversible drive is accomplished more quietly and with less vibration

Identification of the X-ray pulsar in Hercules: A new optical pulsar

A series of photographic, photoelectric, and spectroscopic observations beginning June 1, 1972 has led to the optical identification of Her X-1 (2U 1705 + 34), a pulsed X-ray source in an eclipsing binary system, with the thirteenth magnitude blue variable star HZ Herculis. The detection of optical pulses at the frequency of the X-ray pulsar on three nights makes the identification conclusive and establishes HZ Her as the second known optical pulsar. The strength of the optical pulses may be correlated with the orbital phase but is not obviously related to the high or low intensity states of the X-ray source

Comment on "1/f noise in the Bak-Sneppen model"

Contrary to the recently published results by Daerden and Vanderzande [Phys. Rev. E 53, 4723 (1996)], we show that the time correlation function in the random-neighbor version of the Bak-Sneppen model can be well approximated by an exponential giving rise to a 1/f2 power spectrum.Comment: 2 pages, 2 figure

Network of Earthquakes and Recurrences Therein

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of earthquakes is constructed, which is time ordered and with links between the more correlated ones. Data pertaining to the California region has been used in the study. Recurrences to earthquakes are identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are analyzed subsequently to extract information about the complex dynamics. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence lengths helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes. The out-degree of the network shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude earthquakes. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws are also obtained with recurrence time distribution agreeing with the Omori law.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figure

Front explosion in a periodically forced surface reaction

Resonantly forced oscillatory reaction-diffusion systems can exhibit fronts with complicated interfacial structure separating phase-locked homogeneous states. For values of the forcing amplitude below a critical value the front "explodes" and the width of the interfacial zone grows without bound. Such front explosion phenomena are investigated for a realistic model of catalytic CO oxidation on a Pt(110) surface in the 2:1 and 3:1 resonantly forced regimes. In the 2:1 regime, the fronts are stationary and the front explosion leads to a defect-mediated turbulent state. In the 3:1 resonantly forced system, the fronts propagate. The front velocity tends to zero as the front explosion point is reached and the final asymptotic state is a 2:1 resonantly locked labyrinthine pattern. The front dynamics described here should be observable in experiment since the model has been shown to capture essential features of the CO oxidation reaction

Far-Ultraviolet Observations of NGC 3516 using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope

We observed the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 3516 twice during the flight of Astro-2 using the Hopkins Ultraviolet Telescope in March 1995. Simultaneous X-ray observations were performed with ASCA. Our far-ultraviolet spectra cover the spectral range 820-1840 A with a resolution of 2-4 A. No significant variations were found between the two observations. The total spectrum shows a red continuum, $f_\nu \sim \nu^{-1.89}$, with an observed flux of $\rm 2.2 \times 10^{-14}~erg~cm^{-2}~s^{-1}~\AA^{-1}$ at 1450 A, slightly above the historical mean. Intrinsic absorption in Lyman $\beta$ is visible as well as absorption from O~vi 1032,1038, N~v 1239,1243, Si~iv 1394,1403, and C~iv 1548,1551. The UV absorption lines are far weaker than is usual for NGC~3516, and also lie closer to the emission line redshift rather than showing the blueshift typical of these lines when they are strong. The neutral hydrogen absorption, however, is blueshifted by $400~\rm km~s^{-1}$ relative to the systemic velocity, and it is opaque at the Lyman limit. The sharpness of the cutoff indicates a low effective Doppler parameter, $b < \rm 20~km~s^{-1}$. For $b = \rm 10~km~s^{-1}$ the derived intrinsic column is $\rm 3.5 \times 10^{17}~cm^{-2}$. As in NGC~4151, a single warm absorber cannot produce the strong absorption visible over the wide range of observed ionization states. Matching both the UV and X-ray absorption simultaneously requires absorbers spanning a range of $10^3$ in both ionization parameter and column density.Comment: 18 pages, 4 PostScript figures, uses aaspp4.sty To appear in the August 20, 1996, issue of The Astrophysical Journa

Network of recurrent events for the Olami-Feder-Christensen model

We numerically study the dynamics of a discrete spring-block model introduced by Olami, Feder and Christensen (OFC) to mimic earthquakes and investigate to which extent this simple model is able to reproduce the observed spatiotemporal clustering of seismicty. Following a recently proposed method to characterize such clustering by networks of recurrent events [Geophys. Res. Lett. {\bf 33}, L1304, 2006], we find that for synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model these networks have many non-trivial statistical properties. This includes characteristic degree distributions -- very similar to what has been observed for real seismicity. There are, however, also significant differences between the OFC model and earthquake catalogs indicating that this simple model is insufficient to account for certain aspects of the spatiotemporal clustering of seismicity.Comment: 11 pages, 16 figure