Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru.

During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally

On the Estimation of Solar Energetic Particle Injection Timing from Onset Times near Earth

We examine the accuracy of a common technique for estimating the start time of solar energetic particle injection based on a linear fit to the observed onset time versus 1/(particle velocity). This is based on a concept that the first arriving particles move directly along the magnetic field with no scattering. We check this by performing numerical simulations of the transport of solar protons between 2 and 2000 MeV from the Sun to the Earth, for several assumptions regarding interplanetary scattering and the duration of particle injection, and analyzing the results using the inverse velocity fit. We find that in most cases, the onset times align close to a straight line as a function of inverse velocity. Despite this, the estimated injection time can be in error by several minutes. Also, the estimated path length can deviate greatly from the actual path length along the interplanetary magnetic field. The major difference between the estimated and actual path lengths implies that the first arriving particles cannot be viewed as moving directly along the interplanetary magnetic field.Comment: 19 pages, 3 Postscript figures. Astrophys. J., in pres

Asymmetric function theory

The classical theory of symmetric functions has a central position in algebraic combinatorics, bridging aspects of representation theory, combinatorics, and enumerative geometry. More recently, this theory has been fruitfully extended to the larger ring of quasisymmetric functions, with corresponding applications. Here, we survey recent work extending this theory further to general asymmetric polynomials.Comment: 36 pages, 8 figures, 1 table. Written for the proceedings of the Schubert calculus conference in Guangzhou, Nov. 201

Applications of patching to quadratic forms and central simple algebras

This paper provides applications of patching to quadratic forms and central simple algebras over function fields of curves over henselian valued fields. In particular, we use a patching approach to reprove and generalize a recent result of Parimala and Suresh on the u-invariant of p-adic function fields, for p odd. The strategy relies on a local-global principle for homogeneous spaces for rational algebraic groups, combined with local computations.Comment: 48 pages; connectivity now required in the definition of rational group; beginning of Section 4 reorganized; other minor change

Enemies Within: Redefining the insider threat in organizational security policy

The critical importance of electronic information exchanges in the daily operation of most large modern organizations is causing them to broaden their security provision to include the custodians of exchanged data – the insiders. The prevailing data loss threat model mainly focuses upon the criminal outsider and mainly regards the insider threat as ‘outsiders by proxy’, thus shaping the relationship between the worker and workplace in information security policy. A policy that increasingly takes the form of social policy for the information age as it acquires the power to include and exclude sections of society and potentially to re-stratify it? This article draws upon empirical sources to critically explore the insider threat in organizations. It looks at the prevailing threat model before deconstructing ‘the insider’ into various risk profiles, including the well-meaning insider, before drawing conclusions about what the building blocks of information security policy around the insider might be

Using conceptual metaphor and functional grammar to explore how language used in physics affects student learning

This paper introduces a theory about the role of language in learning physics. The theory is developed in the context of physics students' and physicists' talking and writing about the subject of quantum mechanics. We found that physicists' language encodes different varieties of analogical models through the use of grammar and conceptual metaphor. We hypothesize that students categorize concepts into ontological categories based on the grammatical structure of physicists' language. We also hypothesize that students over-extend and misapply conceptual metaphors in physicists' speech and writing. Using our theory, we will show how, in some cases, we can explain student difficulties in quantum mechanics as difficulties with language.Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. ST:PE

Leveraging population admixture to characterize the heritability of complex traits.

Despite recent progress on estimating the heritability explained by genotyped SNPs (h(2)g), a large gap between h(2)g and estimates of total narrow-sense heritability (h(2)) remains. Explanations for this gap include rare variants or upward bias in family-based estimates of h(2) due to shared environment or epistasis. We estimate h(2) from unrelated individuals in admixed populations by first estimating the heritability explained by local ancestry (h(2)γ). We show that h(2)γ = 2FSTCθ(1 - θ)h(2), where FSTC measures frequency differences between populations at causal loci and θ is the genome-wide ancestry proportion. Our approach is not susceptible to biases caused by epistasis or shared environment. We applied this approach to the analysis of 13 phenotypes in 21,497 African-American individuals from 3 cohorts. For height and body mass index (BMI), we obtained h(2) estimates of 0.55 ± 0.09 and 0.23 ± 0.06, respectively, which are larger than estimates of h(2)g in these and other data but smaller than family-based estimates of h(2)

Omega-3 Fatty Acids and Heart Rhythm, Rate, and Variability in Atrial Fibrillation.

Background Previous randomized control trials showed mixed results concerning the effect of omega-3 fatty acids (n-3 FAs) on atrial fibrillation (AF). The associations of n-3 FA blood levels with heart rhythm in patients with established AF are unknown. The goal of this study was to assess the associations of total and individual n-3 FA blood levels with AF type (paroxysmal versus nonparoxysmal), heart rate (HR), and HR variability in patients with AF. Methods and Results Total n-3 FAs, eicosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, and alpha-linolenic acid blood levels were determined in 1969 patients with known AF from the SWISS-AF (Swiss Atrial Fibrillation cohort). Individual and total n-3 FAs were correlated with type of AF, HR, and HR variability using standard logistic and linear regression, adjusted for potential confounders. Only a mild association with nonparoxysmal AF was found with total n-3 FA (odds ratio [OR], 0.97 [95% CI, 0.89-1.05]) and docosahexaenoic acid (OR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.82-1.06]), whereas other individual n-3 FAs showed no association with nonparoxysmal AF. Higher total n-3 FAs (estimate 0.99 [95% CI, 0.98-1.00]) and higher docosahexaenoic acid (0.99 [95% CI, 0.97-1.00]) tended to be associated with slower HR in multivariate analysis. Docosapentaenoic acid was associated with a lower HR variability triangular index (0.94 [95% CI, 0.89-0.99]). Conclusions We found no strong evidence for an association of n-3 FA blood levels with AF type, but higher total n-3 FA levels and docosahexaenoic acid might correlate with lower HR, and docosapentaenoic acid with a lower HR variability triangular index

Breast Cancer Family History and Contralateral Breast Cancer Risk in Young Women: An Update From the Women's Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology Study.

Purpose The Women's Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology (WECARE) study demonstrated the importance of breast cancer family history on contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk, even for noncarriers of deleterious BRCA1/2 mutations. With the completion of WECARE II, updated risk estimates are reported. Additional analyses that exclude women negative for deleterious mutations in ATM, CHEK2*1100delC, and PALB2 were performed. Patients and Methods The WECARE Study is a population-based case-control study that compared 1,521 CBC cases with 2,212 individually matched unilateral breast cancer (UBC) controls. Participants were younger than age 55 years when diagnosed with a first invasive breast cancer between 1985 and 2008. Women were interviewed about breast cancer risk factors, including family history. A subset of women was screened for deleterious mutations in BRCA1/2, ATM, CHEK2*1100delC, and PALB2. Rate ratios (RRs) were estimated using multivariable conditional logistic regression. Cumulative absolute risks (ARs) were estimated by combining RRs from the WECARE Study and population-based SEER*Stat cancer incidence data. Results Women with any first-degree relative with breast cancer had a 10-year AR of 8.1% for CBC (95% CI, 6.7% to 9.8%). Risks also were increased if the relative was diagnosed at an age younger than 40 years (10-year AR, 13.5%; 95% CI, 8.8% to 20.8%) or with CBC (10-year AR, 14.1%; 95% CI, 9.5% to 20.7%). These risks are comparable with those seen in BRCA1/2 deleterious mutation carriers (10-year AR, 18.4%; 95% CI, 16.0% to 21.3%). In the subset of women who tested negative for deleterious mutations in BRCA1/2, ATM, CHEK2*1100delC, and PALB2, estimates were unchanged. Adjustment for known breast cancer single-nucleotide polymorphisms did not affect estimates. Conclusion Breast cancer family history confers a high CBC risk, even after excluding women with deleterious mutations. Clinicians are urged to use detailed family histories to guide treatment and future screening decisions for young women with breast cancer

Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination

Background: Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria.Methods and Results: Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention.Conclusions: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.<br/