An analysis of the petroleum industry’s inability to deliver on early production forecasts : shortcomings in probabilistic modeling

Previous studies have confirmed that production forecasts in the oil and gas industry are exposed to a variety of biases. This thesis extends those previous findings by investigating the quality of production forecasts for oil fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, which were approved between 1995 and 2017. The research focuses on optimism and overconfidence biases. Both biases are observable in the production forecasts provided by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. By comparing annual production data with production forecasts, it is possible to draw conclusions pertaining to the quality of those forecasts. A variety of methods are applied to investigate and illustrate the magnitude of those biases. The findings illustrate that the reason operators do not attain set project goals is because of aforementioned biases rather than unexpected events. The systemic inability to deliver on what was promised is observable through the lack of forecasting quality improvement over time. Two correction processes are proposed to reduce the encountered biases. A reference class is established to put past outcomes in a distributional setting. Uplift and scaling factors are drawn from the class to adjust the biased production forecasts. The results show a clear improvement in the quality of production forecasts through the use of reference class forecasting. A second process is introduced in which a Bayesian framework is suggested to calculate updated production forecasts. The same reference class is used to provide a prior distribution, which is then updated by the initial forecast (signal) to determine a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution exhibts on average a greater variance and a lower mean than the initial forecast. Therefore, the updated production forecasts are better calibrated and the impact of the biases is reduced. Limitations arise regarding the availability of additional data, however preliminary results from the analyses are encouraging. Drawing on past experience to debias production forecasts is of paramount importancePetroleum and Geosystems Engineerin

Frequency and diversity of small cryptic plasmids in the genus Rahnella.

BACKGROUND: Rahnella is a widely distributed genus belonging to the Enterobacteriaceae and frequently present on vegetables. Although Rahnella has interesting agro-economical and industrial properties and several strains possess antibiotic resistances and toxin genes which might spread within microbial communities, little is known about plasmids of this genus. Thus, we isolated a number of Rahnella strains and investigated their complements of small plasmids. RESULTS: In total 53 strains were investigated and 11 plasmids observed. Seven belonged to the ColE1 family; one was ColE2-like and three shared homology to rolling circle plasmids. One of them belonged to the pC194/pUB110 family and two showed similarity to poorly characterised plasmid groups. The G+C content of two rolling circle plasmids deviated considerably from that of Rahnella, indicating that their usual hosts might belong to other genera. Most ColE1-like plasmids formed a subgroup within the ColE1 family that seems to be fairly specific for Rahnella. Intriguingly, the multimer resolution sites of all ColE1-like plasmids had the same orientation with respect to the origin of replication. This arrangement might be necessary to prevent inappropriate synthesis of a small regulatory RNA that regulates cell division. Although the ColE1-like plasmids did not possess any mobilisation system, they shared large parts with high sequence identity in coding and non-coding regions. In addition, highly homologous regions of plasmids isolated from Rahnella and the chromosomes of Erwinia tasmaniensis and Photorhabdus luminescens could be identified. CONCLUSIONS: For the genus Rahnella we observed plasmid-containing isolates at a frequency of 19%, which is in the average range for Enterobacteriaceae. These plasmids belonged to different groups with members of the ColE1-family most frequently found. Regions of striking sequence homology of plasmids and bacterial chromosomes highlight the importance of plasmids for lateral gene transfer (including chromosomal sequences) to distinct genera.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Detecting Moments of Stress from Measurements of Wearable Physiological Sensors

There is a rich repertoire of methods for stress detection using various physiological signals and algorithms. However, there is still a gap in research efforts moving from laboratory studies to real-world settings. A small number of research has verified when a physiological response is a reaction to an extrinsic stimulus of the participant’s environment in real-world settings. Typically, physiological signals are correlated with the spatial characteristics of the physical environment, supported by video records or interviews. The present research aims to bridge the gap between laboratory settings and real-world field studies by introducing a new algorithm that leverages the capabilities of wearable physiological sensors to detect moments of stress (MOS). We propose a rule-based algorithm based on galvanic skin response and skin temperature, combing empirical findings with expert knowledge to ensure transferability between laboratory settings and real-world field studies. To verify our algorithm, we carried out a laboratory experiment to create a “gold standard” of physiological responses to stressors. We validated the algorithm in real-world field studies using a mixed-method approach by spatially correlating the participant’s perceived stress, geo-located questionnaires, and the corresponding real-world situation from the video. Results show that the algorithm detects MOS with 84% accuracy, showing high correlations between measured (by wearable sensors), reported (by questionnaires and eDiary entries), and recorded (by video) stress events. The urban stressors that were identified in the real-world studies originate from traffic congestion, dangerous driving situations, and crowded areas such as tourist attractions. The presented research can enhance stress detection in real life and may thus foster a better understanding of circumstances that bring about physiological stress in humans

Frequency and diversity of small cryptic plasmids in the genus Rahnella.

BACKGROUND: Rahnella is a widely distributed genus belonging to the Enterobacteriaceae and frequently present on vegetables. Although Rahnella has interesting agro-economical and industrial properties and several strains possess antibiotic resistances and toxin genes which might spread within microbial communities, little is known about plasmids of this genus. Thus, we isolated a number of Rahnella strains and investigated their complements of small plasmids. RESULTS: In total 53 strains were investigated and 11 plasmids observed. Seven belonged to the ColE1 family; one was ColE2-like and three shared homology to rolling circle plasmids. One of them belonged to the pC194/pUB110 family and two showed similarity to poorly characterised plasmid groups. The G+C content of two rolling circle plasmids deviated considerably from that of Rahnella, indicating that their usual hosts might belong to other genera. Most ColE1-like plasmids formed a subgroup within the ColE1 family that seems to be fairly specific for Rahnella. Intriguingly, the multimer resolution sites of all ColE1-like plasmids had the same orientation with respect to the origin of replication. This arrangement might be necessary to prevent inappropriate synthesis of a small regulatory RNA that regulates cell division. Although the ColE1-like plasmids did not possess any mobilisation system, they shared large parts with high sequence identity in coding and non-coding regions. In addition, highly homologous regions of plasmids isolated from Rahnella and the chromosomes of Erwinia tasmaniensis and Photorhabdus luminescens could be identified. CONCLUSIONS: For the genus Rahnella we observed plasmid-containing isolates at a frequency of 19%, which is in the average range for Enterobacteriaceae. These plasmids belonged to different groups with members of the ColE1-family most frequently found. Regions of striking sequence homology of plasmids and bacterial chromosomes highlight the importance of plasmids for lateral gene transfer (including chromosomal sequences) to distinct genera.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are