SEA LEVEL RISE AND EQUITY WEIGHTING

Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of national socio-economic scenarios. This model balances the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase due to greater damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection seems to dominate, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. However, there are some important limitations to the analysis, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND analysis. Equity weighting allows the damages to be modified to reflect the wealth of those impacted by sea-level rise. Taking these distributional issues into account increases damage estimates by a factor of three, reflecting that the coasts fall disproportionately on poorer developing countries.climate change, sea level rise, equity weighting

The Economic Impact of Substantial Sea-Level Rise

Using the FUND model, an impact assessment is conducted over the 21st century for rises in sea level of up to 2-m/century and a range of socio-economic scenarios downscaled to the national level, including the four SRES storylines. This model balances the costs of retreat with the costs of protection, including the effects of coastal squeeze. While the costs of sea-level rise increase with greater rise due to greater damage and protection costs, the model suggests that an optimum response in a benefit-cost sense remains widespread protection of developed coastal areas, as identified in earlier analyses. The socio-economic scenarios are also important in terms of influencing these costs. In terms of the four components of costs considered in FUND, protection dominates, with substantial costs from wetland loss under some scenarios. The regional distribution of costs shows that a few regions experience most of the costs, especially East Asia, North America, Europe and South Asia. Importantly, this analysis suggests that protection is much more likely and rational than is widely assumed, even with a large rise in sea level. This is underpinned by the strong economic growth in all the SRES scenarios: without this growth, the benefits of protection are significantly reduced. It should also be noted that some important limitations to the analysis are discussed, which collectively suggest that protection may not be as widespread as suggested in the FUND results. Equity weighting allows the damages to be modified to reflect the wealth of those impacted by sea-level rise. Taking these distributional issues into account increases damage estimates by a factor of three, reflecting that the costs of sea-level rise fall disproportionately on poorer developing countries.Sea-level rise;Socio-economic scenarios;costs;protection;equity weighting

Own attractiveness and perceived relationship quality shape sensitivity in women’s memory for other men on the attractiveness dimension

Although recent work suggests that opposite-sex facial attractiveness is less salient in memory when individuals are in a committed romantic relationship, romantic relationship quality can vary over time. In light of this, we tested whether activating concerns about romantic relationship quality strengthens memory for attractive faces. Partnered women were exposed briefly to faces manipulated in shape cues to attractiveness before either being asked to think about a moment of emotional closeness or distance in their current relationship. We measured sensitivity in memory for faces as the extent to which they recognized correct versions of studied faces over versions of the same person altered to look either more or less-attractive than their original (i.e. studied) version. Contrary to predictions, high relationship quality strengthened hit rate for faces regardless of the sex or attractiveness of the face. In general, women’s memories were more sensitive to attractiveness in women, but were biased toward attractiveness in male faces, both when responding to unfamiliar faces and versions of familiar faces that were more attractive than the original male identity from the learning phase. However, findings varied according to self-rated attractiveness and a psychometric measure of the quality of their current relationship. Attractive women were more sensitive to attractiveness in men, while their less-attractive peers had a stronger bias to remember women as more-attractive and men as less-attractive than their original image respectively. Women in better-quality romantic relationships had stronger positive biases toward, and false memories for, attractive men. Our findings suggest a sophisticated pattern of sensitivity and bias in women’s memory for facial cues to quality that varies systematically according to factors that may alter the costs of female mating competition (‘market demand’) and relationship maintenance

Metal-poor dwarf galaxies in the SIGRID galaxy sample. I. HII region observations and chemical abundances

In this paper we present the results of observations of seventeen HII regions in thirteen galaxies from the SIGRID sample of isolated gas rich irregular dwarf galaxies. The spectra of all but one of the galaxies exhibit the auroral [OIII] 4363A line, from which we calculate the electron temperature, Te, and gas-phase oxygen abundance. Five of the objects are blue compact dwarf (BCD) galaxies, of which four have not previously been analysed spectroscopically. We include one unusual galaxy which exhibits no evidence of the [NII] {\lambda}{\lambda} 6548,6584A lines, suggesting a particularly low metallicity (< Zsolar/30). We compare the electron temperature based abundances with those derived using eight of the new strong line diagnostics presented by Dopita et al. (2013). Using a method derived from first principles for calculating total oxygen abundance, we show that the discrepancy between the Te-based and strong line gas-phase abundances have now been reduced to within ~0.07 dex. The chemical abundances are consistent with what is expected from the luminosity-metallicity relation. We derive estimates of the electron densities and find them to be between ~5 and ~100 cm-3. We find no evidence for a nitrogen plateau for objects in this sample with metallicities 0.5 > Zsolar > 0.15.Comment: 46 pages, 15 figures, 6 tables, 1 appendix. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Comparison of Theoretical Starburst Photoionisation Models for Optical Diagnostics

We study and compare different examples of stellar evolutionary synthesis input parameters used to produce photoionisation model grids using the MAPPINGS V modelling code. The aim of this study is to (a) explore the systematic effects of various stellar evolutionary synthesis model parameters on the interpretation of emission lines in optical strong-line diagnostic diagrams, (b) characterise the combination of parameters able to reproduce the spread of local galaxies located in the star-forming region in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and (c) investigate the emission from extremely metal-poor galaxies using photoionisation models. We explore and compare the stellar input ionising spectrum (stellar population synthesis code [Starburst99, SLUG, BPASS], stellar evolutionary tracks, stellar atmospheres, star-formation history, sampling of the initial mass function) as well as parameters intrinsic to the H II region (metallicity, ionisation parameter, pressure, H II region boundedness). We also perform a comparison of the photoionisation codes MAPPINGS and CLOUDY. On the variations in the ionising spectrum model parameters, we find that the differences in strong emission-line ratios between varying models for a given input model parameter are small, on average ~0.1 dex. An average difference of ~0.1 dex in emission-line ratio is also found between models produced with MAPPINGS and CLOUDY. Large differences between the emission-line ratios are found when comparing intrinsic H II region parameters. We find that low-metallicity galaxies are better explained by a density-bounded H II region and higher pressures better encompass the spread of galaxies at high redshift.Comment: 33 pages, 26 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Consent in pregnancy - an observational study of ante-natal care in the context of Montgomery: all about risk?

Background How to best support pregnant women in making truly autonomous decisions which accord with current consent law is poorly understood and problematic for them and their healthcare professionals. This observational study examined a range of ante-natal consultations where consent for an intervention took place to determine key themes during the encounter. Methods Qualitative research in a large urban teaching hospital in London. Sixteen consultations between pregnant women and their healthcare professionals (nine obstetricians and three midwives) where ante-natal interventions were discussed and consent was documented were directly observed. Data were collectively analysed to identify key themes characterising the consent process. Results Four themes were identified: 1) Clinical framing - by framing the consultation in terms of the clinical decision to be made HCPs miss the opportunity to assess what really matters to a pregnant woman. For many women the opportunity to feel that their previous experiences had been ‘heard’ was an important but sometimes neglected prelude to the ensuing consultation; 2) Clinical risk dominated narrative - all consultations were dominated by information related to risk; discussion of reasonable alternatives was not always observed and women’s understanding of information was seldom verified making compliance with current law questionable; 3) Parallel narrative - woman-centred experience – for pregnant women social factors such as the place of birth and partner influences were as or more important than considerations of clinical risk yet were often missed by HCPs; 4) Cross cutting narrative - genuine dialogue - we observed variably effective interaction between the clinical (2) and patient (3) narratives influenced by trust and empathy and explicit empowering language by HCPs. Conclusion We found that ante-natal consultations that include consent for interventions are dominated by clinical framing and risk, and explore the woman-centred narrative less well. Current UK law requires consent consultations to include explicit effort to gauge a woman’s preferences and values, yet consultations seem to fail to achieve such understanding. At the very least, consultations may be improved by the addition of opening questions along the lines of ‘what matters to you most?