Hypoxia and Sturgeons: report to the Chesapeake Bay Program Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Team

In this essay, three lines of evidence are developed that sturgeons in the Chesapeake Bay and elsewhere are unusually sensitive to hypoxic conditions: 1. In comparison to other fishes, sturgeons have a limited behavioral and physiological capacity to respond to hypoxia. Basal metabolism, growth, and consumption are quite sensitive to changes in oxygen level, which may indicate a relatively poor ability by sturgeons to oxyregulate. 2. During summertime, temperatures >20 C amplify the effect of hypoxia on sturgeons and other fishes due to a temperature*oxygen "squeeze" (Coutant 1987)- In bottom waters, this interaction results in substantial reduction of habitat; in dry years, nursery habitats in the Chesapeake Bay may be particularly reduced or even eliminated. 3. While evidence for population level effects by hypoxia are circumstantial, there are corresponding trends between the absence of Atlantic sturgeon reproduction in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay where summertime hypoxia predominates on a system-wide scale. Also, the recent and dramatic recovery of shortnose sturgeon in the Hudson River (4-fold increase in abundance from 1980 to 1995) may have been stimulated by improvement of a large portion of the nursery habitat that was restored from hypoxia to normoxia during the period 1973-1978. (PDF contains 26 pages

Abstractions for designing and evaluating communication bridges for people in developing regions

This paper describes two novel abstractions that help soft- ware engineers work in developing regions to align social and technical factors when building communication systems. The abstractions extend two concepts familiar to engineers of computer networks and applications: the Open Systems Interconnect stack for design, and Quality of Service for eval- uation. The novel nature of the abstractions lies in how they help cultivate awareness of socio-cultural and technical is- sues when designing and evaluating communication bridges in the eld. Advantages of the abstractions are that they can be understood easily by software engineers, they aid communication with bene ciaries, and can therefore facili- tate collaboration. The paper makes an argument for these socially aware abstractions, describes the abstractions in de- tail, provides examples of how we used the new abstractions in the eld and then gives practical guidelines for how to use them. The simple nature of the new abstractions can help software engineers and end-users to work together to produce useful information technology based communication systems for people in developing regions.Telkom, Cisco, THRIP, NRF, SANPADWeb of Scienc

Using voice over IP to bridge the digital divide: a critical action research approach

There is a great disparity between those who have access to Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and those that do not. This phenomenon forms part of the Digital Divide. Many ICTs may be used to help overcome this divide if they are applied in a useful way, providing locally applicable content and services. Critical Action Research (CAR) is an approach used to develop such applications. CAR aims to empower people by involving them in the development process. Using CAR, this project investigates how Voice over IP (VoIP) may be applied in a productive way in an underserviced community. VoIP is an ICT used for sending voice over packet switched networks using Internet Protocol. It can be used to integrate data and voice to produce multimedia applications. In South Africa (SA), VoIP may only be provided by Telkom, the Second National Operator and the Under-Serviced Area Licensees. Using CAR and VoIP, an application is being developed to service a specific need of a particular rural community. The application will either provide a service to a small rural business or aid the provision of healthcare in rural areas. The project evaluates how well CAR integrates with a normal Software Development Lifecycle and makes policy recommendations for the use of VoIP in rural SA.Telkom, Siemens, THRI

Telemedicine using VoIP combined with a store and forward approach

Rural areas in South Africa have unique conditions such as remoteness and scarcity of reliable public facilities. Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) introduced into these areas must be suitable for these conditions. Using a user-centred design approach based on Participatory Design and Action Research, we have developed a telemedicine application for a rural village in the Eastern Cape. This paper describes how we determined the requirements and design for the application and why we chose Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) combined with a store and forward approach to achieve our telemedicine goals. We present an overview of the methodology we are using, describe the software application we have developed and mention several challenges we have faced to date. Finally we conclude that VoIP and store and forward technologies are appropriate to the South African rural situation.Telkom, Siemens, THRIP, IDRC, SANPADDepartment of HE and Training approved lis

Fully quantum mechanical dynamic analysis of single-photon transport in a single-mode waveguide coupled to a traveling-wave resonator

We analyze the dynamics of single photon transport in a single-mode waveguide coupled to a micro-optical resonator using a fully quantum mechanical model. We examine the propagation of a single-photon Gaussian packet through the system under various coupling conditions. We review the theory of single photon transport phenomena as applied to the system and we develop a discussion on the numerical technique we used to solve for dynamical behavior of the quantized field. To demonstrate our method and to establish robust single photon results, we study the process of adiabatically lowering or raising the energy of a single photon trapped in an optical resonator under active tuning of the resonator. We show that our fully quantum mechanical approach reproduces the semi-classical result in the appropriate limit and that the adiabatic invariant has the same form in each case. Finally, we explore the trapping of a single photon in a system of dynamically tuned, coupled optical cavities.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figure

On the Importance of Cycle Minimum in Sunspot Cycle Prediction

The characteristics of the minima between sunspot cycles are found to provide important information for predicting the amplitude and timing of the following cycle. For example, the time of the occurrence of sunspot minimum sets the length of the previous cycle, which is correlated by the amplitude-period effect to the amplitude of the next cycle, with cycles of shorter (longer) than average length usually being followed by cycles of larger (smaller) than average size (true for 16 of 21 sunspot cycles). Likewise, the size of the minimum at cycle onset is correlated with the size of the cycle's maximum amplitude, with cycles of larger (smaller) than average size minima usually being associated with larger (smaller) than average size maxima (true for 16 of 22 sunspot cycles). Also, it was found that the size of the previous cycle's minimum and maximum relates to the size of the following cycle's minimum and maximum with an even-odd cycle number dependency. The latter effect suggests that cycle 23 will have a minimum and maximum amplitude probably larger than average in size (in particular, minimum smoothed sunspot number Rm = 12.3 +/- 7.5 and maximum smoothed sunspot number RM = 198.8 +/- 36.5, at the 95-percent level of confidence), further suggesting (by the Waldmeier effect) that it will have a faster than average rise to maximum (fast-rising cycles have ascent durations of about 41 +/- 7 months). Thus, if, as expected, onset for cycle 23 will be December 1996 +/- 3 months, based on smoothed sunspot number, then the length of cycle 22 will be about 123 +/- 3 months, inferring that it is a short-period cycle and that cycle 23 maximum amplitude probably will be larger than average in size (from the amplitude-period effect), having an RM of about 133 +/- 39 (based on the usual +/- 30 percent spread that has been seen between observed and predicted values), with maximum amplitude occurrence likely sometime between July 1999 and October 2000

Prelude to Cycle 23: The Case for a Fast-Rising, Large Amplitude Cycle

For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages of sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum years (R(max)) and of the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (aa(min)) are consistent with the notion that each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating each of these fits to cycle 23, we infer that it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) = 176.7 +/- 61.8, and aa(min) = 21.0 +/- 5.0 (at the 95-percent level of confidence), suggesting that cycle 23 will have R(min) greater than 7.0, R(max) greater than 114.9, and aa(min) greater than 16.0 (at the 97.5-percent level of confidence). Such values imply that cycle 23 will be larger than average in size and, consequently (by the Waidmeier effect), will be a fast riser. We also infer from the R(max) and aa(min) records the existence of an even- odd cycle effect, one in which the odd-following cycle is numerically larger in value than the even-leading cycle. For cycle 23, the even-odd cycle effect suggests that R(max) greater than 157.6 and aa(min) greater than 19.0, values that were recorded for cycle 22, the even-leading cycle of the current even-odd cycle pair (cycles 22 and 23). For 1995, the annual average of the aa index measured about 22, while for sunspot number, it was about 18. Because aa(min) usually lags R(min) by 1 year (true for 8 of 11 cycles) and 1996 seems destined to be the year of R(min) for cycle 23, it may be that aa(min) will occur in 1997, although it could occur in 1996 in conjunction with R(min) (true for 3 of 11 cycles). Because of this ambiguity in determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on the correlation of R(max) against aa(min), having r = 0.90, or of R(max) against the combined effects of R(min) and aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having r = 0.99, is possible until 1997, at the earliest

On Determining the Rise, Size, and Duration Classes of a Sunspot Cycle

The behavior of ascent duration, maximum amplitude, and period for cycles 1 to 21 suggests that they are not mutually independent. Analysis of the resultant three-dimensional contingency table for cycles divided according to rise time (ascent duration), size (maximum amplitude), and duration (period) yields a chi-square statistic (= 18.59) that is larger than the test statistic (= 9.49 for 4 degrees-of-freedom at the 5-percent level of significance), thereby, inferring that the null hypothesis (mutual independence) can be rejected. Analysis of individual 2 by 2 contingency tables (based on Fisher's exact test) for these parameters shows that, while ascent duration is strongly related to maximum amplitude in the negative sense (inverse correlation) - the Waldmeier effect, it also is related (marginally) to period, but in the positive sense (direct correlation). No significant (or marginally significant) correlation is found between period and maximum amplitude. Using cycle 22 as a test case, we show that by the 12th month following conventional onset, cycle 22 appeared highly likely to be a fast-rising, larger-than-average-size cycle. Because of the inferred correlation between ascent duration and period, it also seems likely that it will have a period shorter than average length

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Minimum

By definition, the conventional onset for the start of a sunspot cycle is the time when smoothed sunspot number (i.e., the 12-month moving average) has decreased to its minimum value (called minimum amplitude) prior to the rise to its maximum value (called maximum amplitude) for the given sunspot cycle. On the basis (if the modern era sunspot cycles 10-22 and on the presumption that cycle 22 is a short-period cycle having a cycle length of 120 to 126 months (the observed range of short-period modern era cycles), conventional onset for cycle 23 should not occur until sometime between September 1996 and March 1997, certainly between June 1996 and June 1997, based on the 95-percent confidence level deduced from the mean and standard deviation of period for the sample of six short-pei-iod modern era cycles. Also, because the first occurrence of a new cycle, high-latitude (greater than or equal to 25 degrees) spot has always preceded conventional onset of the new cycle by at least 3 months (for the data-available interval of cycles 12-22), conventional onset for cycle 23 is not expected until about August 1996 or later, based on the first occurrence of a new cycle 23, high-latitude spot during the decline of old cycle 22 in May 1996. Although much excitement for an earlier-occurring minimum (about March 1996) for cycle 23 was voiced earlier this year, the present study shows that this exuberance is unfounded. The decline of cycle 22 continues to favor cycle 23 minimum sometime during the latter portion of 1996 to the early portion of 1997