Random regret minimization or random utility maximization: An exploratory analysis in the context of automobile fuel choice

Interest in alternative behavioural paradigms to random utility maximisation (RUM) has existed ever since the dominance of the RUM formulation. One alternative is known as random regret minimisation (RRM), which suggests that when choosing between alternatives, decision-makers aim to minimise anticipated regret. Although the idea of regret is not new, its incorporation into the same discrete choice framework of RUM is very recent. This paper is the first to apply the RRM-model framework to model choice among durable goods. Specifically, we estimate and compare RRM- and RUM-models in a stated choice context of choosing amongst petrol, diesel and hybrid fuelled vehicles (associated with specific levels of fuel efficiency and engine capacity). The RRM-model is found to achieve a marginally better fit (using a non-nested test of differences) than its equally parsimonious RUM-counterpart. As a second contribution, we derive a formulation for regret-based elasticities, and compare utility- and regret-based elasticities in the context of stated vehicle-type choices. We find that in the context of our choice-data, mean estimates of elasticities are different for many of the attributes and alternatives

Bootstrapping a Sustainable North American PEM Fuel Cell Industry: Could a Federal Acquisition Program Make a Difference?

The North American Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell industry may be at a critical juncture. A large-scale market for automotive fuel cells appears to be several years away and in any case will require a long-term, coordinated commitment by government and industry to insure the co-evolution of hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell vehicles (Greene et al., 2008). The market for non-automotive PEM fuel cells, on the other hand, may be much closer to commercial viability (Stone, 2006). Cost targets are less demanding and manufacturers appear to be close, perhaps within a factor of two, of meeting them. Hydrogen supply is a significant obstacle to market acceptance but may not be as great a barrier as it is for hydrogen-powered vehicles due to the smaller quantities of hydrogen required. PEM fuel cells appear to be potentially competitive in two markets: (1) Backup power (BuP) supply, and (2) electrically-powered MHE (Mahadevan et al., 2007a, 2007b). There are several Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) of PEM fuel cell systems for these applications but production levels have been quite low (on the order of 100-200 per year) and cumulative production experience is also limited (on the order of 1,000 units to date). As a consequence, costs remain above target levels and PEM fuel cell OEMs are not yet competitive in these markets. If cost targets can be reached and acceptable solutions to hydrogen supply found, a sustainable North American PEM fuel cell industry could be established. If not, the industry and its North American supply chain could disappear within a year or two. The Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Infrastructure Technologies (HFCIT) program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requested a rapid assessment of the potential for a government acquisition program to bootstrap the market for non-automotive PEM fuel cells by driving down costs via economies of scale and learning-by-doing. The six week study included in-depth interviews of three manufacturers, visits to two production facilities, review of the literature on potential markets in North America and potential federal government procurements, development of a cost model reflecting economies of scale and learning-by-doing, and estimation of the impact of federal PEM fuel cell procurements on fuel cell system costs and the evolution of private market demand. This report presents the findings of that study. Section 2 outlines the status of the industry and describes potential markets based on interviews of manufacturers and the existing literature. Section 3 describes the modeling methodology including key premises and assumptions, and presents estimates of market evolution under four scenarios: (1) Base Case with no federal government procurement program, (2) Scenario 1, an aggressive program beginning with less than 200 units procured in 2008 ramping up to more than 2,000 units in 2012, (3) Scenario 2 which is identical to Scenario 1 except that the private market is assumed to be twice as sensitive to price, and (4) Scenario 3, a delayed, smaller federal procurement program beginning in 2011 increasing to a maximum of just over 1,000 units per year in 2012. The analysis suggests that the aggressive program of Scenario 1 would likely stimulate a sustainable, competitive North American non-automotive PEM fuel cell industry. Given plausible assumptions about learning rates and scale economies, the procurements assumed in Scenario 1 appear to be sufficient to drive down costs to target levels. These findings are conditional on the evolution of acceptable hydrogen supply strategies, which were not explicitly analyzed in this study. Success is less certain under Scenarios 2 and 3, and there appears to be a strong probability that existing OEMs would not survive until 2011. In the Base Case, no program, a viable North American industry does not emerge before 2020

Warped Vacuum Statistics

We consider the effect of warping on the distribution of type IIB flux vacua constructed with Calabi-Yau orientifolds. We derive an analytical form of the distribution that incorporates warping and find close agreement with the results of a Monte Carlo enumeration of vacua. Compared with calculations that neglect warping, we find that for any finite volume compactification, the density of vacua is highly diluted in close proximity to the conifold point, with a steep drop-off within a critical distance.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figure

Excitability in a quantum dot semiconductor laser with optical injection

We experimentally analyze the dynamics of a quantum dot semiconductor laser operating under optical injection. We observe the appearance of single- and double-pulse excitability at one boundary of the locking region. Theoretical considerations show that these pulses are related to a saddle-node bifurcation on a limit cycle as in the Adler equation. The double pulses are related to a period-doubling bifurcation and occur on the same homoclinic curve as the single pulses

Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and Assessment of Future Opportunities

Fuel cells (FCs) are considered essential future energy technologies by developed and developing economies alike. Several countries, including the United States, Japan, Germany, and South Korea have established publicly funded R&D and market transformation programs to develop viable domestic FC industries for both automotive and non-automotive applications. Important non-automotive applications include large scale and small scale distributed combined heat and electrical power, backup and uninterruptible power, material handling and auxiliary power units. The U.S. FC industry is in the early stages of development, and is working to establish sustainable markets in all these areas. To be successful, manufacturers must reduce costs, improve performance, and overcome market barriers to new technologies. U.S. policies are assisting via research and development, tax credits and government-only and government-assisted procurements. Over the past three years, the industry has made remarkable progress, bringing both stack and system costs down by more than a factor of two while improving durability and efficiency, thanks in part to government support. Today, FCs are still not yet able to compete in these markets without continued policy support. However, continuation or enhancement of current policies, such as the investment tax credit and government procurements, together with continued progress by the industry, appears likely to establish a viable domestic industry within the next decade

Orientation of Vortices in a Superconducting Thin-Film: Quantitative Comparison of Spin-Polarized Neutron Reflectivity and Magnetization

We present a quantitative comparison of the magnetization measured by spin-polarized neutron reflectivity (SPNR) and DC magnetometry on a 1370 \AA\ -thick Nb superconducting film. As a function of magnetic field applied in the film plane, SPNR exhibits reversible behavior whereas the DC magnetization shows substantial hysteresis. The difference between these measurements is attributed to a rotation of vortex magnetic field out of the film plane as the applied field is reduced. Since SPNR measures only the magnetization parallel to the film plane whereas DC magnetization is strongly influenced by the perpendicular component of magnetization when there is a slight sample tilt, combining the two techniques allows one to distinguish two components of magnetization in a thin film.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, It will be printed in PRB, Oct. 200

The Standard Model on a D-brane

We present a consistent string theory model which reproduces the Standard Model, consisting of a D3-brane at a simple orbifold singularity. We study some simple features of the phenomenology of the model. We find that the scale of stringy physics must be in the multi-TeV range. There are natural hierarchies in the fermion spectrum and there are several possible experimental signatures of the model.Comment: 8 pages Latex, 1 fig. v2: discussion improved, added new reference

The Full-sky Astrometric Mapping Explorer -- Astrometry for the New Millennium

FAME is designed to perform an all-sky, astrometric survey with unprecedented accuracy. It will create a rigid astrometric catalog of 4x10^7 stars with 5 < m_V < 15. For bright stars, 5 < m_V < 9, FAME will determine positions and parallaxes accurate to < 50 microarcseconds, with proper motion errors < 50 microarcseconds/year. For fainter stars, 9 < m_V < 15, FAME will determine positions and parallaxes accurate to < 500 microarcseconds, with proper motion errors < 500 microarcseconds/year. It will also collect photometric data on these 4 x 10^7 stars in four Sloan DSS colors.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, to appear in "Working on the Fringe

Brane Localization and Stabilization via Regional Physics

Extra-dimensional scenarios have become widespread among particle and gravitational theories of physics to address several outstanding problems, including cosmic acceleration, the weak hierarchy problem, and the quantization of gravity. In general, the topology and geometry of the full spacetime manifold will be non-trivial, even if our ordinary dimensions have the topology of their covering space. Most compact manifolds are inhomogeneous, even if they admit a homogeneous geometry, and it will be physically relevant where in the extra-dimensions one is located. In this letter, we explore the use of both local and global effects in a braneworld scenario to naturally provide position-dependent forces that determine and stabilize the location of a single brane. For illustrative purposes, we consider the 2-dimensional hyperbolic horn and the Euclidean cone as toy models of the extra-dimensional manifold, and add a brane wrapped around one of the two spatial dimensions. We calculate the total energy due to brane tension and bending (extrinsic curvature) as well as that due to the Casimir energy of a bulk scalar satisfying a Dirchlet boundary condition on the brane. From the competition of at least two of these effects there can exist a stable minimum of the effective potential for the brane location. However, on more generic spaces (on which more symmetries are broken) any one of these effects may be sufficient to stabilize the brane. We discuss this as an example of physics that is neither local nor global, but regional.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures. PRL submitte

Loss of Effector and Anti-Inflammatory Natural Killer T Lymphocyte Function in Pathogenic Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection

Chronic immune activation is a key determinant of AIDS progression in HIV-infected humans and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-infected macaques but is singularly absent in SIV-infected natural hosts. To investigate whether natural killer T (NKT) lymphocytes contribute to the differential modulation of immune activation in AIDS-susceptible and AIDS-resistant hosts, we compared NKT function in macaques and sooty mangabeys in the absence and presence of SIV infection. Cynomolgus macaques had significantly higher frequencies of circulating invariant NKT lymphocytes compared to both rhesus macaques and AIDS-resistant sooty mangabeys. Despite this difference, mangabey NKT lymphocytes were functionally distinct from both macaque species in their ability to secrete significantly more IFN-γ, IL-13, and IL-17 in response to CD1d/α-galactosylceramide stimulation. While NKT number and function remained intact in SIV-infected mangabeys, there was a profound reduction in NKT activation-induced, but not mitogen-induced, secretion of IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-10, and TGF-β in SIV-infected macaques. SIV-infected macaques also showed a selective decline in CD4+ NKT lymphocytes which correlated significantly with an increase in circulating activated memory CD4+ T lymphocytes. Macaques with lower pre-infection NKT frequencies showed a significantly greater CD4+ T lymphocyte decline post SIV infection. The disparate effect of SIV infection on NKT function in mangabeys and macaques could be a manifestation of their differential susceptibility to AIDS. Alternately, these data also raise the possibility that loss of anti-inflammatory NKT function promotes chronic immune activation in pathogenic SIV infection, while intact NKT function helps to protect natural hosts from developing immunodeficiency and aberrant immune activation