A Satisficing Alternative to Prospect Theory

In this paper, we axiomatize a target-based model of choice that allows decision makers to be both risk averse and risk seeking, depending on the payoff's position relative to a prespecified target. The approach can be viewed as a hybrid model, capturing in spirit two celebrated ideas: first, the satisficing concept of Simon (1955); second, the switch between risk aversion and risk seeking popularized by the prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979). Our axioms are simple and intuitive; in order to be implemented in practice, our approach requires only the specification of an aspiration level. We show that this approach is dual to a known approach using risk measures, thereby allowing us to connect to existing theory. Though our approach is intended to be normative, we also show that it resolves the classical examples of Allais (1953) and Ellsberg (1961).satisficing; aspiration levels; targets; prospect theory; reflection effect; risk measures; coherent risk measures; convex risk measures; portfolio optimization

Dual representation of choice and aspirational preferences

We consider choice over a set of monetary acts (random variables) and study a general class of preferences. These preferences favor diversification, except perhaps on a subset of sufficiently disliked acts, over which concentration is instead preferred. This structure encompasses a number of known models in this setting. We show that such preferences can be expressed in dual form in terms of a family of measures of risk and a target function. Specifically, the choice function is equivalent to selection of a maximum index level such that the risk of beating the target function at that level is acceptable. This dual representation may help to uncover new models of choice. One that we explore in detail is the special case of a bounded target function. This case corresponds to a type of satisficing and has descriptive relevance. Moreover, the model results in optimization problems that may be efficiently solved in large-scale.

Oil prices and aggregate economic activity: a study of eight OECD countries

Power resources - Prices ; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Oil prices and inflation

Power resources - Prices ; Inflation (Finance)

Nickel complexes of a bis(benzimidazolin-2-ylidene)pyridine pincer ligand with four- and five-coordinate geometries

The four- and five-coordinate complexes [(CNC)NiX2] (X = Cl, Br, I), [(CNC)NiX]PF6 (X = Cl,Br) and [(CNC)NiCl]ClH2O have been isolated, where CNC is the bis(N-butylbenzimidazolin-2-ylidene)-2,6-pyridine pincer ligand. A five-coordinate geometry is rare for this class of complex.Where amenable, the complexes have been structurally characterised by single crystal X-raydiffraction studies and in solution by NMR, UV-vis and MS studies. The five-coordinate dibromocomplex [(CNC)NiBr2] is readily prepared on the gram-scale from the benzimidazolium saltprecursor and Ni(OAc)24H2O in DMSO without the exclusion of air. Halide exchange and saltmetathesis reactions using [(CNC)NiBr2] afford the other four- and five-coordinate complexes.[(CNC)NiBr2] displays very low solubility, and upon dissolution affords solutions of the fourcoordinate[(CNC)NiBr]+. Factors that influence the formation of four- or five-coordinatecomplexes with this ligand class are discussed

QUEST/Ada (Query Utility Environment for Software Testing) of Ada: The development of a program analysis environment for Ada

A history of the Query Utility Environment for Software Testing (QUEST)/Ada is presented. A fairly comprehensive literature review which is targeted toward issues of Ada testing is given. The definition of the system structure and the high level interfaces are then presented. The design of the three major components is described. The QUEST/Ada IORL System Specifications to this point in time are included in the Appendix. A paper is also included in the appendix which gives statistical evidence of the validity of the test case generation approach which is being integrated into QUEST/Ada

QUEST/Ada (Query Utility Environment for Software Testing of Ada): The development of a prgram analysis environment for Ada, task 1, phase 2

The results of research and development efforts are described for Task one, Phase two of a general project entitled The Development of a Program Analysis Environment for Ada. The scope of this task includes the design and development of a prototype system for testing Ada software modules at the unit level. The system is called Query Utility Environment for Software Testing of Ada (QUEST/Ada). The prototype for condition coverage provides a platform that implements expert system interaction with program testing. The expert system can modify data in the instrument source code in order to achieve coverage goals. Given this initial prototype, it is possible to evaluate the rule base in order to develop improved rules for test case generation. The goals of Phase two are the following: (1) to continue to develop and improve the current user interface to support the other goals of this research effort (i.e., those related to improved testing efficiency and increased code reliable); (2) to develop and empirically evaluate a succession of alternative rule bases for the test case generator such that the expert system achieves coverage in a more efficient manner; and (3) to extend the concepts of the current test environment to address the issues of Ada concurrency

Uptake of an OHS code of practice by construction firms : barriers and enablers in an Australian industry

The Australian construction industry, reflecting a global trend, is moving towards the implementation of a voluntary code of practice (hereafter VCP) for occupational health and safety. The evidence suggests that highlyvisible clients and project management firms, in addition to their subcontractors, look set to embrace such a code. However, smaller firms not operating in high-profile contracting regimes may prove reticent to adopt a VCP. This paper incorporates qualitative data from a high-profile research project commissioned by Engineers Australia and supported by the Australian Contractors’ Association, Property Council of Australia, Royal Australian Institute of Architects, Association of Consulting Engineers Australia, Australian Procurement and Construction Council, Master Builders Australia and the Australian CRC for Construction Innovation. The paper aims to understand the factors that facilitate or prevent the uptake of the VCP by smaller firms, together with pathways to the adoption of a VCP by industry

The Saga of the Masked Bobwhite: Lessons Learned and Unlearned

No bird has generated so much interest and controversy as has the masked bobwhite (Colinus virginianus ridgwayi). From its discovery in 1884 to the present, this gallinaceous game bird has captured the attention of hunter-naturalists, ornithologists, collectors, game breeders, conservationists and bureaucrats. Believed threatened with extinction throughout its 130 year history, the masked bobwhite prompted several collecting expeditions, a survey technique study, a plethora of propagation attempts, and the purchase of an 117,464 acre refuge by the federal government, and expenditures totaling millions of dollars. Yet, despite propagated stock existing in a captive facility on Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge, the status of the masked bobwhite is now more perilous than ever, and this subtropical race of America’s most popular game bird may now be functionally extinct. How this all came about is a lesson that needed to be learned by wildlife managers seeking to increase and secure wild populations of native game birds