Quantifying the azimuthal plasmaspheric density structure and dynamics inferred from IMAGE EUV

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95221/1/jgra22185.pd

Bayesian optimization for materials design

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during materials design and discovery to find good material designs in as few experiments as possible. We focus on the case when materials designs are parameterized by a low-dimensional vector. Bayesian optimization is built on a statistical technique called Gaussian process regression, which allows predicting the performance of a new design based on previously tested designs. After providing a detailed introduction to Gaussian process regression, we introduce two Bayesian optimization methods: expected improvement, for design problems with noise-free evaluations; and the knowledge-gradient method, which generalizes expected improvement and may be used in design problems with noisy evaluations. Both methods are derived using a value-of-information analysis, and enjoy one-step Bayes-optimality

Non-Perturbative Topological Strings And Conformal Blocks

We give a non-perturbative completion of a class of closed topological string theories in terms of building blocks of dual open strings. In the specific case where the open string is given by a matrix model these blocks correspond to a choice of integration contour. We then apply this definition to the AGT setup where the dual matrix model has logarithmic potential and is conjecturally equivalent to Liouville conformal field theory. By studying the natural contours of these matrix integrals and their monodromy properties, we propose a precise map between topological string blocks and Liouville conformal blocks. Remarkably, this description makes use of the light-cone diagrams of closed string field theory, where the critical points of the matrix potential correspond to string interaction points.Comment: 36 page

Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS/DESIGN: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-hour recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

The Wasteland of Random Supergravities

We show that in a general \cal{N} = 1 supergravity with N \gg 1 scalar fields, an exponentially small fraction of the de Sitter critical points are metastable vacua. Taking the superpotential and Kahler potential to be random functions, we construct a random matrix model for the Hessian matrix, which is well-approximated by the sum of a Wigner matrix and two Wishart matrices. We compute the eigenvalue spectrum analytically from the free convolution of the constituent spectra and find that in typical configurations, a significant fraction of the eigenvalues are negative. Building on the Tracy-Widom law governing fluctuations of extreme eigenvalues, we determine the probability P of a large fluctuation in which all the eigenvalues become positive. Strong eigenvalue repulsion makes this extremely unlikely: we find P \propto exp(-c N^p), with c, p being constants. For generic critical points we find p \approx 1.5, while for approximately-supersymmetric critical points, p \approx 1.3. Our results have significant implications for the counting of de Sitter vacua in string theory, but the number of vacua remains vast.Comment: 39 pages, 9 figures; v2: fixed typos, added refs and clarification

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the “Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study”

Background: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the “Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study” (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. Methods: Young adults (25–45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. Results: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. Conclusions: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time

Pseudomonas aeruginosa quorum sensing molecules correlate with clinical status in cystic fibrosis

ABSTRACT Pseudomonas aeruginosa produces quorum sensing signal molecules that are potential biomarkers for infection. A prospective study of 60 cystic fibrosis patients with chronic P. aeruginosa, who required intravenous antibiotics for pulmonary exacerbations, was undertaken. Clinical measurements and biological samples were obtained at the start and end of the treatment period. Additional data were available for 29 of these patients when they were clinically stable. Cross-sectionally, quorum sensing signal molecules were detectable in the sputum, plasma and urine of 86%, 75% and 83% patients, respectively. They were positively correlated between the three biofluids. Positive correlations were observed for most quorum sensing signal molecules in sputum, plasma and urine, with quantitative measures of pulmonary P. aeruginosa load at the start of a pulmonary exacerbation. Plasma concentrations of 2-nonyl-4-hydroxy-quinoline (NHQ) were significantly higher at the start of a pulmonary exacerbation compared to clinical stability ( p<0.01). Following the administration of systemic antibiotics, plasma 2-heptyl-4-hydroxyquinoline ( p=0.02) and NHQ concentrations (p<0.01) decreased significantly. In conclusion, quorum sensing signal molecules are detectable in cystic fibrosis patients with pulmonary P. aeruginosa infection and are positively correlated with quantitative measures of P. aeruginosa. NHQ correlates with clinical status and has potential as a novel biomarker for P. aeruginosa infection

A multiplicative hazard regression model to assess the risk of disease transmission at hospital during community epidemics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During community epidemics, infections may be imported within hospital and transmitted to hospitalized patients. Hospital outbreaks of communicable diseases have been increasingly reported during the last decades and have had significant consequences in terms of patient morbidity, mortality, and associated costs. Quantitative studies are thus needed to estimate the risks of communicable diseases among hospital patients, taking into account the epidemiological process outside, hospital and host-related risk factors of infection and the role of other patients and healthcare workers as sources of infection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose a multiplicative hazard regression model to analyze the risk of acquiring a communicable disease by patients at hospital. This model derives from epidemiological data on communicable disease epidemics in the community, hospital ward, patient susceptibility to infection, and exposure of patients to infection at hospital. The model estimates the relative effect of each of these factors on a patient's risk of communicable disease.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using individual data on patients and health care workers in a teaching hospital during the 2004-2005 influenza season in Lyon (France), we show the ability of the model to assess the risk of influenza-like illness among hospitalized patients. The significant effects on the risk of influenza-like illness were those of old age, exposure to infectious patients or health care workers, and a stay in a medical care unit.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The proposed multiplicative hazard regression model could be an interesting epidemiological tool to quantify the risk of communicable disease at hospital during community epidemics and the uncertainty inherent in such quantification. Furthermore, key epidemiological, environmental, host, or exposure factors that influence this risk can be identified.</p

Association of car ownership and physical activity across the spectrum of human development: Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS)

Background: Variations in physical activity (PA) across nations may be driven by socioeconomic position. As national incomes increase, car ownership becomes within reach of more individuals. This report characterizes associations between car ownership and PA in African-origin populations across 5 sites at different levels of economic development and with different transportation infrastructures: US, Seychelles, Jamaica, South Africa, and Ghana. Methods: Twenty-five hundred adults, ages 25–45, were enrolled in the study. A total of 2,101 subjects had valid accelerometer-based PA measures (reported as average daily duration of moderate to vigorous PA, MVPA) and complete socioeconomic information. Our primary exposure of interest was whether the household owned a car. We adjusted for socioeconomic position using household income and ownership of common goods. Results: Overall, PA levels did not vary largely between sites, with highest levels in South Africa, lowest in the US. Across all sites, greater PA was consistently associated with male gender, fewer years of education, manual occupations, lower income, and owning fewer material goods. We found heterogeneity across sites in car ownership: after adjustment for confounders, car owners in the US had 24.3 fewer minutes of MVPA compared to non-car owners in the US (20.7 vs. 45.1 minutes/day of MVPA); in the non-US sites, car-owners had an average of 9.7 fewer minutes of MVPA than non-car owners (24.9 vs. 34.6 minutes/day of MVPA). Conclusions: PA levels are similar across all study sites except Jamaica, despite very different levels of socioeconomic development. Not owning a car in the US is associated with especially high levels of MVPA. As car ownership becomes prevalent in the developing world, strategies to promote alternative forms of active transit may become important