The effects of seasonal processes on size spectrum dynamics

The recent advent of dynamic size spectrum models has allowed the analysis of life processes in marine ecosystems to be carried out without the high complexity arising from interspecies interactions within dense food webs. In this paper, we use "mizer", a size spectrum modelling framework, to investigate the consequences of including the seasonal processes of plankton blooms and batch spawning in the model dynamics. A multispecies size spectrum model is constructed using 12 common North Sea fish species, with growth, predation, and mortality explicitly modelled, before simulating both seasonal plankton blooms and batch spawning of fish (using empirical data on the spawning patterns of each species). The effect of seasonality on the community size spectrum is investigated; it is found that with seasonal processes included, the species spectra are more varied over time, while the aggregated community spectrum remains fairly similar. Growth of seasonally spawning mature individuals drops significantly during peak reproduction, although lifetime growth curves follow nonseasonal ones closely. On analysing properties of the community spectrum under different fishing scenarios, seasonality generally causes more varied spectrum slopes and lower yields. Under seasonal conditions, increasing fishing effort also results in greater temporal variability of fisheries yields due to truncation of the community spectrum towards smaller sizes. Further work is needed to evaluate robustness of management strategies in the context of a wider range of seasonal processes and behavioural strategies, as well as longer term environmental variability and change

The impact of current infection levels on the cost-benefit of vaccination

When considering a new vaccine program or modifying an existing one, economic cost-benefit analysis, underpinned by predictive epidemiological modelling, is a key component. This analysis is intimately linked to the willingness to pay for additional QALYs (quality-adjusted life-years) gained; currently in England and Wales a health program is economically viable if the cost per QALY gained is less than £ 20,000, and models are often used to assess if a vaccine program is likely to fall below this threshold cost. Before a program begins, infection levels are generally high and therefore vaccination may be expected to have substantial effects and therefore will often be economically viable. However, once a program is established, and infection rates are lower, it might be expected that a re-evaluation of the program (using current incidence information) will show it to be less cost-effective. This is the scenario we examine here with analytical tools and simple ODE models. Surprisingly we show that in most cases the benefits from maintaining an existing vaccination program are at least equal to those of starting the program initially, and in the majority of scenarios the differences between the two are minimal. In practical terms, this is an extremely helpful finding, allowing us to assert that the action of immunising individuals does not de-value the vaccination program

Capturing sexual contact patterns in modelling the spread of sexually transmitted infections : evidence using Natsal-3

Background Understanding the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in a population is of great importance to the planning and delivery of health services globally. The worldwide rise of HIV since the 1980’s, and the recent increase in common STIs (including HPV and Chlamydia) in many countries, means that there is an urgent need to understand transmission dynamics in order to better predict the spread of such infections in the population. Unlike many other infections which can be captured by assumptions of random mixing, STI transmission is intimately linked to the number and pattern of sexual contacts. In fact, it is the huge variation in the number of new sexual partners that gives rise to the extremes of risk within populations which need to be captured in predictive models of STI transmission. Such models are vital in providing the necessary scientific evidence to determine whether a range of controls (from education to screening to vaccination) are cost-effective. Method and results We use probability sample survey data from Britain’s third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) to determine robust distributions for the rate of new partnerships that involve condomless sex and can therefore facilitate the spread of STIs. Different distributions are defined depending on four individual-level characteristics: age, sex, sexual orientation, and previous sexual experience. As individual behaviour patterns can change (e.g. by remaining in a monogamous relationship for a long period) we allow risk-percentiles to be randomly redrawn, to capture longer term behaviour as measured by Natsal-3. We demonstrate how this model formulation interacts with the transmission of infection by constructing an individual-based SIS-P (Susceptible—Infected—Susceptible—Protected) transmission model for the spread of a generic STI, and observing overall population demographics when varying the transmission probability within a partnership, recovery rate and the level of population protection (e.g. from vaccination where applicable)

Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees

We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction

Efficient use of sentinel sites : detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK

Sentinel sites, where problems can be identified early or investigated in detail, form an important part of planning for exotic disease outbreaks in humans, livestock and plants. Key questions are: how many sentinels are required, where should they be positioned and how effective are they at rapidly identifying new invasions? The sentinel apiary system for invasive honeybee pests and diseases illustrates the costs and benefits of such approaches. Here, we address these issues with two mathematical modelling approaches. The first approach is generic and uses probabilistic arguments to calculate the average number of affected sites when an outbreak is first detected, providing rapid and general insights that we have applied to a range of infectious diseases. The second approach uses a computationally intensive, stochastic, spatial model to simulate multiple outbreaks and to determine appropriate sentinel locations for UK apiaries. Both models quantify the anticipated increase in success of sentinel sites as their number increases and as non-sentinel sites become worse at detection; however, unexpectedly sentinels perform relatively better for faster growing outbreaks. Additionally, the spatial model allows us to quantify the substantial role that carefully positioned sentinels can play in the rapid detection of exotic invasions

Invasion dynamics of Asian hornet, Vespa velutina (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) : a case study of a commune in south-west France

Asian hornet, Vespa velutina Lepeletier nests were discovered in 2007 in Andernos-les-Bains on the south-west coast of France, 3 years after the first reported sightings in France. The number of nests increased in the commune over the following 7 years, despite local authorities enacting a destruction policy. The nests existed in close proximity to one another leading to a high density of over 10 nests per square kilometre in urban areas. New information on the chosen habitat for nests is presented, and the differences between primary and secondary locations are evident, with primary nests mostly occupying buildings and man-made structures, while secondary nests were found on trees. Using Bayesian inference methods, we fit a basic model to the observational data, which allows us to estimate key demographic parameters. This model fit is highly informative for predicting V. velutina spread and colonisation of other at-risk regions, and suggests that local control has a limited impact on the spread of V. velutina once established within a region

Indirect eff ects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background The full extent to which childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) can indirectly reduce illness in unvaccinated populations is not known. We aimed to estimate the magnitude and timing of indirect eff ects of PCVs on invasive pneumococcal disease. Methods In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched bibliographic databases for non-randomised quasiexperimental or observational studies reporting invasive pneumococcal disease changes following PCV introduction in unvaccinated populations (studies published Sept 1, 2010, to Jan 6, 2016), updating the previous systematic review of the same topic (studies published Jan 1, 1994, to Sept 30, 2010). Two reviewers extracted summary data by consensus. We used a Bayesian mixed-eff ects model to account for between-study heterogeneity to estimate temporal indirect eff ects by pooling of invasive pneumococcal disease changes by serotype and serogroup. Findings Data were extracted from 70 studies included in the previous review and 172 additional studies, covering 27 high-income and seven middle-income countries. The predicted mean times to attaining a 90% reduction in invasive pneumococcal disease were 8·9 years (95% credible interval [CrI] 7·8–10·3) for grouped serotypes contained in the seven-valent PCV (PCV7), and 9·5 years (6·1–16·6) for the grouped six additional serotypes contained in the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) but not in PCV7. Disease due to grouped serotypes contained in the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) decreased at similar rates per year in adults aged 19–64 years (relative risk [RR] 0·85, 95% CrI 0·75–0·95) and 65 years and older (0·87, 0·84–0·90). However, we noted no changes in either group in invasive pneumococcal disease caused by the additional 11 serotypes covered by PPV23 but not PCV13. Interpretation Population childhood PCV programmes will lead, on average, to substantial protection across the whole population within a decade. This large indirect protection should be considered when assessing vaccination of older age groups

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most widespread sexually transmitted infection worldwide. It causes several health consequences, in particular accounting for the majority of cervical cancer cases in women. In the United Kingdom, a vaccination campaign targeting 12-year-old girls started in 2008; this campaign has been successful, with high uptake and reduced HPV prevalence observed in vaccinated cohorts. Recently, attention has focused on vaccinating both sexes, due to HPV-related diseases in males (particularly for high-risk men who have sex with men) and an equity argument over equalising levels of protection. METHODS: We constructed an epidemiological model for HPV transmission in the UK, accounting for nine of the most common HPV strains. We complemented this with an economic model to determine the likely health outcomes (healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years) for individuals from the epidemiological model. We then tested vaccination with the three HPV vaccines currently available, vaccinating either girls alone or both sexes. For each strategy we calculated the threshold price per vaccine dose, i.e. the maximum amount paid for the added health benefits of vaccination to be worth the cost of each vaccine dose. We calculated results at 3.5% discounting, and also 1.5%, to consider the long-term health effects of HPV infection. RESULTS: At 3.5% discounting, continuing to vaccinate girls remains highly cost-effective compared to halting vaccination, with threshold dose prices of £56-£108. Vaccination of girls and boys is less cost-effective (£25-£53). Compared to vaccinating girls only, adding boys to the programme is not cost-effective, with negative threshold prices (-£6 to -£3) due to the costs of administration. All threshold prices increase when using 1.5% discounting, and adding boys becomes cost-effective (£36-£47). These results are contingent on the UK's high vaccine uptake; for lower uptake rates, adding boys (at the same uptake rate) becomes more cost effective. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccinating girls is extremely cost-effective compared with no vaccination, vaccinating both sexes is less so. Adding boys to an already successful girls-only programme has a low cost-effectiveness, as males have high protection through herd immunity. If future health effects are weighted more heavily, threshold prices increase and vaccination becomes cost-effective