Asset Pricing Model Conditional on Up and Down Market for Emerging Market: The Case of Pakistan

This study proposes an asset pricing model conditional on up and down market for emerging market and tests its validity in Pakistan on individual stocks of Karachi Stock Exchange from July 2004 to December 2012. The basic capital asset pricing model is also tested. The results indicate that when emerging market undergoes negative market excess return, basic capital asset pricing model is inaccurate to predict stock returns. Although the conditional asset pricing model accurately predicts the risk-return trade off with beta as sole determinant of stock returns when there is up market, however yet it is significantly variant during down market where significant impact of residuals is evinced on stock returns.  The market excess returns of up and down markets are also found asymmetric. The study implies that conditional asset pricing model can be an adequate technique for investors and portfolio managers considering investments in emerging markets. Keywords: Asset Pricing Model, Conditional, Pakistan, Emerging Market, Up Market, Down Market. JEL Codes: C21, C22, G10, G12, G1

Market Varying Conditional Risk-Return Relationship

Unlike previous studies conducted on Pakistan, this article attempts to test the validity of conditional relationship between beta and cross-sectional returns of individual securities listed in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), wherein the up and down market periods are separated. The risk-return relationship is also tested using the conventional CAPM to compare the results of both models. The return on market portfolio and risk free asset is proxied by KSE-100 share index return and three months T-bill. Fama and McBeth (1973) and Pettengill, et al. (1995) methods are used to test conventional and conditional risk-return relationship, respectively. The analysis is performed on individual stocks of thirty companies over the period 2004 to 2012. Findings indicate a consistent and significant positive risk return relationship in up market periods where market excess returns are positive; whereas, an inverse risk-return relationship is not proved in down market periods where market excess returns are negative. Furthermore, the study finds no support for symmetry between up and down market periods. The major implication of the analysis is that beta can be a useful measure of risk only in up markets periods

Effect of early tranexamic acid administration on mortality, hysterectomy, and other morbidities in women with post-partum haemorrhage (WOMAN): an international, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Post-partum haemorrhage is the leading cause of maternal death worldwide. Early administration of tranexamic acid reduces deaths due to bleeding in trauma patients. We aimed to assess the effects of early administration of tranexamic acid on death, hysterectomy, and other relevant outcomes in women with post-partum haemorrhage. Methods In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women aged 16 years and older with a clinical diagnosis of post-partum haemorrhage after a vaginal birth or caesarean section from 193 hospitals in 21 countries. We randomly assigned women to receive either 1 g intravenous tranexamic acid or matching placebo in addition to usual care. If bleeding continued after 30 min, or stopped and restarted within 24 h of the first dose, a second dose of 1 g of tranexamic acid or placebo could be given. Patients were assigned by selection of a numbered treatment pack from a box containing eight numbered packs that were identical apart from the pack number. Participants, care givers, and those assessing outcomes were masked to allocation. We originally planned to enrol 15 000 women with a composite primary endpoint of death from all-causes or hysterectomy within 42 days of giving birth. However, during the trial it became apparent that the decision to conduct a hysterectomy was often made at the same time as randomisation. Although tranexamic acid could influence the risk of death in these cases, it could not affect the risk of hysterectomy. We therefore increased the sample size from 15 000 to 20 000 women in order to estimate the effect of tranexamic acid on the risk of death from post-partum haemorrhage. All analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ISRCTN76912190 (Dec 8, 2008); ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00872469; and PACTR201007000192283. Findings Between March, 2010, and April, 2016, 20 060 women were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive tranexamic acid (n=10 051) or placebo (n=10 009), of whom 10 036 and 9985, respectively, were included in the analysis. Death due to bleeding was significantly reduced in women given tranexamic acid (155 [1·5%] of 10 036 patients vs 191 [1·9%] of 9985 in the placebo group, risk ratio [RR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·65–1·00; p=0·045), especially in women given treatment within 3 h of giving birth (89 [1·2%] in the tranexamic acid group vs 127 [1·7%] in the placebo group, RR 0·69, 95% CI 0·52–0·91; p=0·008). All other causes of death did not differ significantly by group. Hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (358 [3·6%] patients in the tranexamic acid group vs 351 [3·5%] in the placebo group, RR 1·02, 95% CI 0·88–1·07; p=0·84). The composite primary endpoint of death from all causes or hysterectomy was not reduced with tranexamic acid (534 [5·3%] deaths or hysterectomies in the tranexamic acid group vs 546 [5·5%] in the placebo group, RR 0·97, 95% CI 0·87-1·09; p=0·65). Adverse events (including thromboembolic events) did not differ significantly in the tranexamic acid versus placebo group. Interpretation Tranexamic acid reduces death due to bleeding in women with post-partum haemorrhage with no adverse effects. When used as a treatment for postpartum haemorrhage, tranexamic acid should be given as soon as possible after bleeding onset. Funding London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Pfizer, UK Department of Health, Wellcome Trust, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation