Comparing Apples with Apples: Robust Detection Limits for Exoplanet High-Contrast Imaging in the Presence of non-Gaussian Noise

Over the past decade, hundreds of nights have been spent on the worlds largest telescopes to search for and directly detect new exoplanets using high-contrast imaging (HCI). Thereby, two scientific goals are of central interest: First, to study the characteristics of the underlying planet population and distinguish between different planet formation and evolution theories. Second, to find and characterize planets in our immediate Solar neighborhood. Both goals heavily rely on the metric used to quantify planet detections and non-detections. Current standards often rely on several explicit or implicit assumptions about the noise. For example, it is often assumed that the residual noise after data post-processing is Gaussian. While being an inseparable part of the metric, these assumptions are rarely verified. This is problematic as any violation of these assumptions can lead to systematic biases. This makes it hard, if not impossible, to compare results across datasets or instruments with different noise characteristics. We revisit the fundamental question of how to quantify detection limits in HCI. We focus our analysis on the error budget resulting from violated assumptions. To this end, we propose a new metric based on bootstrapping that generalizes current standards to non-Gaussian noise. We apply our method to archival HCI data from the NACO-VLT instrument and derive detection limits for different types of noise. Our analysis shows that current standards tend to give detection limit that are about one magnitude too optimistic in the speckle-dominated regime. That is, HCI surveys may have excluded planets that can still exist.Comment: After first iteration with the referee, resubmitted to AJ. Comments welcome

CROCODILE \\ Incorporating medium-resolution spectroscopy of close-in directly imaged exoplanets into atmospheric retrievals via cross-correlation

The investigation of the atmospheres of closely separated, directly imaged gas giant exoplanets is challenging due to the presence of stellar speckles that pollute their spectrum. To remedy this, the analysis of medium- to high-resolution spectroscopic data via cross-correlation with spectral templates (cross-correlation spectroscopy) is emerging as a leading technique. We aim to define a robust Bayesian framework combining, for the first time, three widespread direct-imaging techniques, namely photometry, low-resolution spectroscopy, and medium-resolution cross-correlation spectroscopy in order to derive the atmospheric properties of close-in directly imaged exoplanets. Our framework CROCODILE (cross-correlation retrievals of directly imaged self-luminous exoplanets) naturally combines the three techniques by adopting adequate likelihood functions. To validate our routine, we simulated observations of gas giants similar to the well-studied $\beta$~Pictoris~b planet and we explored the parameter space of their atmospheres to search for potential biases. We obtain more accurate measurements of atmospheric properties when combining photometry, low- and medium-resolution spectroscopy into atmospheric retrievals than when using the techniques separately as is usually done in the literature. We find that medium-resolution ($R \approx 4000$) K-band cross-correlation spectroscopy alone is not suitable to constrain the atmospheric properties of our synthetic datasets; however, this problem disappears when simultaneously fitting photometry and low-resolution ($R \approx 60$) spectroscopy between the Y and M bands. Our framework allows the atmospheric characterisation of directly imaged exoplanets using the high-quality spectral data that will be provided by the new generation of instruments such as VLT/ERIS, JWST/MIRI, and ELT/METIS

Asgard/NOTT: L-band nulling interferometry at the VLTI I. Simulating the expected high-contrast performance

Context: NOTT (formerly Hi-5) is a new high-contrast L' band (3.5-4.0 \textmu m) beam combiner for the VLTI with the ambitious goal to be sensitive to young giant exoplanets down to 5 mas separation around nearby stars. The performance of nulling interferometers in these wavelengths is affected both by fundamental noise from the background and by the contributions of instrumental noises. This motivates the development of end-to-end simulations to optimize these instruments. Aims: To enable the performance evaluation and inform the design of such instruments on the current and future infrastructures, taking into account the different sources of noise, and their correlation. Methods: SCIFYsim is an end-to-end simulator for single mode filtered beam combiners, with an emphasis on nulling interferometers. It is used to compute a covariance matrix of the errors. Statistical detection tests based on likelihood ratios are then used to compute compound detection limits for the instrument. Results: With the current assumptions on the performance of the wavefront correction systems, the errors are dominated by correlated instrumental errors down to stars of magnitude 6-7 in the L band, beyond which thermal background from the telescopes and relay system becomes dominant. Conclusions: SCIFYsim is suited to anticipate some of the challenges of design, tuning, operation and signal processing for integrated optics beam combiners. The detection limits found for this early version of NOTT simulation with the unit telescopes are compatible with detections at contrasts up to $10^5$ in the L band at separations of 5 to 80 mas around bright stars

Asgard/NOTT: L-band nulling interferometry at the VLTI

Context. NOTT (formerly Hi-5) is a new high-contrast L′ band (3.5–4.0 µm) beam combiner for the VLTI designed with an ambitious aim to be sensitive to young giant exoplanets down to 5 mas separation around nearby stars. The performance of nulling interferometers in these wavelengths is affected both by fundamental noise from the background and contributions of instrumental noise. This motivates the development of end-to-end simulations to optimize these instruments.Aims. The aim of this study is to enable a performance evaluation of NOTT and inform the design of such instruments with current and future infrastructures in mind, taking into account the different sources of noise and their correlation.Methods. SCIFYsim is an end-to-end simulator for single-mode-filtered beam combiners, with an emphasis on nulling interferometers. We use it to compute a covariance matrix of the errors. We then use statistical detection tests based on likelihood ratios to compute compound detection limits for the instrument.Results. With the current assumptions as to the performance of the wavefront correction systems, the errors are dominated by correlated instrumental errors down to stars of magnitude 6–7 in the L band, beyond which thermal background from the telescopes and relay system becomes dominant.Conclusions. SCIFYsim is suited to anticipating some of the challenges of design, tuning, operation, and signal processing for integrated-optics beam combiners. The detection limits found for this early version of NOTT simulation with the unit telescopes are compatible with detections at contrasts up to 105 in the L band at separations of 5–80 mas around bright stars

Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE): X. Detectability of currently known exoplanets and synergies with future IR/O/UV reflected-starlight imaging missions

International audienceContext. The next generation of space-based observatories will characterize the atmospheres of low-mass, temperate exoplanets with the direct-imaging technique. This will be a major step forward in our understanding of exoplanet diversity and the prevalence of potentially habitable conditions beyond the Earth. Aims. We compute a list of currently known exoplanets detectable with the mid-infrared Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE) in thermal emission. We also compute the list of known exoplanets accessible to a notional design of the future Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), observing in reflected starlight. Methods. With a pre-existing statistical methodology, we processed the NASA Exoplanet Archive and computed orbital realizations for each known exoplanet. We derived their mass, radius, equilibrium temperature, and planet-star angular separation. We used the LIFEsim simulator to compute the integration time ( t int ) required to detect each planet with LIFE. A planet is considered detectable if a broadband signal-to-noise ratio S / N = 7 is achieved over the spectral range 4–18.5 µm in t int < 100 h. We tested whether the planet is accessible to HWO in reflected starlight based on its notional inner and outer working angles, and minimum planet-to-star contrast. Results. LIFE's reference configuration (four 2-m telescopes with 5% throughput and a nulling baseline between 10–100 m) can detect 212 known exoplanets within 20 pc. Of these, 49 are also accessible to HWO in reflected starlight, offering a unique opportunity for synergies in atmospheric characterization. LIFE can also detect 32 known transiting exoplanets. Furthermore, we find 38 LIFE-detectable planets orbiting in the habitable zone, of which 13 have M p < 5 M ⊕ and eight have 5 M ⊕ < M p < 10 M ⊕ . Conclusions. LIFE already has enough targets to perform ground-breaking analyses of low-mass, habitable-zone exoplanets, a fraction of which will also be accessible to other instruments

Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE). X. Detectability of currently known exoplanets and synergies with future IR/O/UV reflected-starlight imaging missions

The next generation of space-based observatories will characterize the atmospheres of low-mass, temperate exoplanets with the direct-imaging technique. This will be a major step forward in our understanding of exoplanet diversity and the prevalence of potentially habitable conditions beyond the Earth. We compute a list of currently known exoplanets detectable with the mid-infrared Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE) in thermal emission. We also compute the list of known exoplanets accessible to a notional design of the Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO), observing in reflected starlight. With a pre-existing method, we processed the NASA Exoplanet Archive and computed orbital realizations for each known exoplanet. We derived their mass, radius, equilibrium temperature, and planet-star angular separation. We used the LIFEsim simulator to compute the integration time ($t_{int}$) required to detect each planet with LIFE. A planet is considered detectable if a broadband signal-to-noise ratio $S/N$=7 is achieved over the spectral range $4-18.5\mu$m in $t_{int}\leq$100 hours. We tested whether the planet is accessible to HWO in reflected starlight based on its notional inner and outer working angles, and minimum planet-to-star contrast. LIFE's reference configuration (four 2-m telescopes with 5% throughput and a nulling baseline between 10-100 m) can detect 212 known planets within 20 pc. Of these, 55 are also accessible to HWO in reflected starlight, offering a unique opportunity for synergies in atmospheric characterization. LIFE can also detect 32 known transiting exoplanets. Furthermore, 38 LIFE-detectable planets orbit in the habitable zone, of which 13 with $M_p<5M_\oplus$ and 8 with $5M_\oplus<M_p<10M_\oplus$. LIFE already has enough targets to perform ground-breaking analyses of low-mass, habitable-zone exoplanets, a fraction of which will also be accessible to other instruments.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 14 pages, 5 Tables, 5 Figures + Appendi

Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE): I. Improved exoplanet detection yield estimates for a large mid-infrared space-interferometer mission

One of the long-term goals of exoplanet science is the atmospheric characterization of dozens of small exoplanets in order to understand their diversity and search for habitable worlds and potential biosignatures. Achieving this goal requires a space mission of sufficient scale. We seek to quantify the exoplanet detection performance of a space-based mid-infrared nulling interferometer that measures the thermal emission of exoplanets. For this, we have developed an instrument simulator that considers all major astrophysical noise sources and coupled it with Monte Carlo simulations of a synthetic exoplanet population around main-sequence stars within 20 pc. This allows us to quantify the number (and types) of exoplanets that our mission concept could detect over a certain time period. Two different scenarios to distribute the observing time among the stellar targets are discussed and different apertures sizes and wavelength ranges are considered. Within a 2.5-year initial search phase, an interferometer consisting of four 2 m apertures covering a wavelength range between 4 and 18.5 μm could detect up to ~550 exoplanets with radii between 0.5 and 6 R⊕ with an integrated SNR≥7. At least ~160 of the detected exoplanets have radii ≤1.5 R⊕. Depending on the observing scenario, ~25-45 rocky exoplanets (objects with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 ⊕) orbiting within the empirical habitable zone (eHZ) of their host stars are among the detections. With four times 3.5 m aperture size, the total number of detections can increase to up to ~770, including ~60-80 rocky, eHZ planets. With four times 1 m aperture size, the maximum detection yield is ~315 exoplanets, including ≤20 rocky, eHZ planets. In terms of predicted detection yield, such a mission can compete with large single-aperture reflected light missions