Strategies to improve global influenza surveillance: a decision tool for policymakers.

BACKGROUND: Global pandemic influenza preparedness relies heavily on public health surveillance, but it is unclear that current surveillance fully meets pandemic preparedness needs. METHODS: We first developed a conceptual framework to help systematically identify strategies to improve the detection of an early case or cluster of novel human influenza disease during the pre-pandemic period. We then developed a process model (flow diagram) depicting nine major pathways through which a case in the community could be detected and confirmed, and mapped the improvement strategies onto this model. Finally, we developed an interactive decision tool by building quantitative measures of probability and time into each step of the process model and programming it to calculate the net probability and time required for case detection through each detection pathway. Input values for each step can be varied by users to assess the effects of different improvement strategies, alone or in combination. We illustrate application of the tool using hypothetical input data reflecting baseline and 12-month follow-up scenarios, following concurrent implementation of multiple improvement strategies. RESULTS: We compared outputs from the tool across detection pathways and across time, at baseline and 12-month follow up. The process model and outputs from the tool suggest that traditional efforts to build epidemiology and laboratory capacity are efficient strategies, as are more focused strategies within these, such as targeted laboratory testing; expedited specimen transport; use of technologies to streamline data flow; and improved reporting compliance. Other promising strategies stem from community detection - better harnessing of electronic data mining and establishment of community-based monitoring. CONCLUSION: Our practical tool allows policymakers to use their own realistic baseline values and program projections to assess the relative impact of different interventions to improve the probability and timeliness of detecting early human cases or clusters caused by a novel influenza virus, a possible harbinger of a new pandemic. Policymakers can use results to target investments to improve their surveillance infrastructure. Multi-national planners can also use the tool to help guide directions in surveillance system improvements more globally. Finally, our systematic approach can also be tailored to help improve surveillance for other diseases

Three birds with one stone: Tidal wetland restoration, carbon sequestration, and enhancing resilience to rising sea levels in the Snohomish River Estuary, Washington

Recent attention has focused on exploring the carbon storage and sequestration values of tidal wetlands to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Efforts are now underway to develop the tools and refine the science needed to bring carbon markets to bear on tidal wetland restoration activities. Effective restoration not only maximizes carbon storage in former tidal wetlands but also, through the accumulation of organic and mineral matter, enhances these systems’ resilience to rising sea levels. To this end, this project focuses on the Snohomish River estuary of the Puget Sound, Washington, which offers a continuum of diked and un-diked wetlands including seasonal floodplains, open mudflats, mature and tidal forests, and salt marsh habitats. In addition, there is strong restoration potential in a suite of ongoing and proposed projects. We report here on the carbon storage pools, long-term sediment accretion rates (100 years), and estimated rates of carbon storage, derived from sediment cores collected at representative sites within the Snohomish estuary during the spring and summer of 2013. We found that natural wetlands (open to tidal exchange and riverine inputs) were accreting at rates that equaled or exceeded current rates of eustatic sea level rise, while formerly, or currently diked wetlands (closed to such exchanges and inputs) revealed marked evidence of subsidence. Restored sites showed evidence of both high rates of sediment accretion (1.61 cm/year) and carbon storage (352 g C/m2/year)

Youth Service in Comparative Perspective

Youth Service in Comparative Perspectiv

The effect of statins on muscle symptoms in primary care:the StatinWISE series of 200 N-of-1 RCTs

Background: Uncertainty persists about whether or not statins cause symptomatic muscle adverse effects (e.g. pain, stiffness and weakness) in the absence of severe myositis.Objectives: To establish the effect of statins on all muscle symptoms, and the effect of statins on muscle symptoms that are perceived to be statin related.Design: A series of 200 double-blinded N-of-1 trials.Setting: Participants were recruited from 50 general practices in England and Wales.Participants: Patients who were considering discontinuing statin use and those who had discontinued statin use in the last 3 years because of perceived muscle symptoms.Interventions: Participants were randomised to a sequence of six 2-month treatment periods during which they received 20 mg of atorvastatin daily or a matched placebo.Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was self-reported muscle symptoms rated using a visual analogue scale on the last week of each treatment period. Secondary outcomes included the participant's belief about the cause of their muscle symptoms, the site of muscle symptoms, how the muscle symptoms affected the participant, any other symptoms they experienced, adherence to medication, the participant's decision about statin treatment following the trial, and whether or not they found their own trial result helpful.Results: A total of 151 out of 200 (75.5%) randomised participants provided one or more visual analogue scale measurements in a placebo period and one or more measurements in a statin period, and were included in the primary analysis. There was no evidence of a difference in muscle symptom scores between statin and placebo periods (mean difference statin minus placebo -0.11, 95% confidence interval -0.36 to 0.14; p = 0.398). Withdrawals, adherence and missing data were similar during the statin periods and the placebo periods.Conclusions: Among people who previously reported severe muscle symptoms while taking statins, this series of randomised N-of-1 trials found no overall effect of statins on muscle symptoms compared with the placebo. The slight difference in withdrawals due to muscle symptoms suggests that statins may contribute to symptoms in a small number of patients. The results are generalisable to patients who are considering discontinuing or have already discontinued statins because of muscle symptoms, and who are willing to re-challenge or participate in their own N-of-1 trial.Future work: We recommend that additional statins and doses are explored using N-of-1 trials. More broadly, N-of-1 trials present a useful tool for exploring transient symptoms with other medications.Limitations: This study used 20-mg doses of atorvastatin only. Furthermore, a dropout rate of 43% was observed, but this was accounted for in the power calculations.Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30952488 and EudraCT 2016-000141-31.</p

Associations Between Neighborhood SES and Functional Brain Network Development

Higher socioeconomic status (SES) in childhood is associated with stronger cognitive abilities, higher academic achievement, and lower incidence of mental illness later in development. While prior work has mapped the associations between neighborhood SES and brain structure, little is known about the relationship between SES and intrinsic neural dynamics. Here, we capitalize upon a large cross-sectional community-based sample (Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort, ages 8–22 years, n = 1012) to examine associations between age, SES, and functional brain network topology. We characterize this topology using a local measure of network segregation known as the clustering coefficient and find that it accounts for a greater degree of SES-associated variance than mesoscale segregation captured by modularity. High-SES youth displayed stronger positive associations between age and clustering than low-SES youth, and this effect was most pronounced for regions in the limbic, somatomotor, and ventral attention systems. The moderating effect of SES on positive associations between age and clustering was strongest for connections of intermediate length and was consistent with a stronger negative relationship between age and local connectivity in these regions in low-SES youth. Our findings suggest that, in late childhood and adolescence, neighborhood SES is associated with variation in the development of functional network structure in the human brain