Generation and Disruption of Subducted Lithosphere in the Central-Western Mediterranean Region and Time-Space Distribution of Magmatic Activity Since the Late Miocene

The long migration of the Balearic Arc (Alpine-Apennine and Alpine- Maghrebian belts) in the Early-Middle Miocene caused the formation of a subducted lithospheric edifice in the western and central Mediterranean regions. Then, since the Late Miocene, this slab was almost completely disrupted, only maintaining a narrow and deformed remnant beneath the southernmost Tyrrhenian basin. This work describes a tentative reconstruction of the tectonic processes that caused the formation of major tears and breakoffs in the original slabs and the consequent disruption of the subducted lithosphere. In particular, it is suggested that this relatively fast process was produced by the collision between the Anatolian-Aegean system and the continental Adriatic domain, which triggered a number of extrusion processes. Possible connections between the proposed tectonic evolution and the spatio-temporal distribution and geochemical signatures of magmatic activity are then discussed. It is supposed that such activity has been mainly conditioned by the occurrence of transtensional tectonics in the wake of escaping orogenic wedges

Terremoti avvenuti in Appennino centrale nel periodo Agosto-Ottobre 2016: un chiaro esempio di come le attuali carte di pericolosità sismica sottovalutano il problema

Le attuali carte di pericolosità in Italia sono basate sullo studio della sismicità passata condotto con metodologie statistiche (Cornell, 1968; McGuire, 1978). In vari articoli (si vedano, ad esempio, Viti et al., 2009 e Mantovani et al., 2012, 2013, 2014a, 2014b), il gruppo di ricerca geofisica che fa capo al Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell’Ambiente (DSFTA) dell’Università di Siena ha sottolineato che i risultati ottenuti da tale tipo di approccio possono portare a significative sottovalutazioni della pericolosità

Seismotectonics of the Padanian region and surrounding belts: which driving mechanism?

It is argued that the complex tectonic pattern observed in the study area can plausibly be explained as an effect of the kinematics of the Iberia and Adria blocks, induced by the NNE ward motion of Africa and the roughly westward motion of the Anatolian- Aegean system with respect to Eurasia. These boundary conditions cause the constrictional regime which is responsible for the observed shortening processes in the Padanian region and Western Alps. The proposed dynamic context can plausibly account for the peculiar distribution of major seismic sources, located in the northern Apennines, the Giudicarie fault system, the offshore of the western Ligurian coast and the Swiss Alps. The observed tectonic pattern in Western Europe and the study area can hardly be reconciled with the implications of the roughly NWward convergence between Africa and Eurasia proposed by global kinematic models, whereas it is compatible with the alternative Africa-Eurasia kinematics and plate mosaic proposed by [1]

Tentative recognition of the Italian seismic zones most prone to next strong earthquakes (as a tool for reduction of seismic risk)

A large portion of the building heritage in Italy has not been realized to resist the seismic shaking caused by earthquakes occurred in the past. Thus, the limited economic resources now available are largely insufficient to obtain a significant reduction of the seismic risk throughout the whole country. A way to achieve such objective might be identified by exploiting the fact that most probably in the next tens of years only few Italian zones will be hit by strong earthquakes and that, consequently, for such period the restoration of weak buildings and critical infrastructures will be urgent only in a very limited portion of the national territory. Thus, if the present scientific knowledge allowed us to reliably identify the location of the next major shocks, a significant reduction of the of seismic risk in Italy could become economically and operationally feasible. The hope of realizing such very attractive possibility should strongly increase the attention of Civil Protection authorities towards the researches that may provide the information cited above. As a first contribution towards that objective, this report describes a procedure that might allow the recognition of the Italian zone most prone to the next strong earthquake

Possible location of the next major earthquakes in the northern Apennines: present key role of the Romagna-Marche-Umbria wedge

It is argued that in some zones of the Northern Apennines, in particular the Rimini-Ancona thrust system, the Romagna Apennines and the Alta Valtiberina trough, the probability of major earthquakes is now higher than in other Apennine zones. This hypothesis is suggested by the comparison of the present short-term kinematics of the Romagna-Marche-Umbria wedge in the Northern Apennines, deduced by the distribution of major shocks in the last tens of years, with the previous repeated behavior of the same wedge, evidenced by the distribution of major earthquakes in the last seven centuries. The seismotectonics of the Apennine region here considered is closely connected with the larger context that involves the progressive migration (from south to north) of seismicity along the peri-Adriatic zones. The information provided by this study can be used to better manage the resources for prevention in Italy

Best strategy for the development of a seismic prevention plan

An effective mitigation of seismic risk in Italy can hardly be obtained without a tentative recognition of few priority zones, where the limited resources available in the short term can be concentrated. A reliable recognition of the zones where the probability of major earthquakes is highest must be carried out by a deterministic approach, exploiting the profound knowledge acquired about the present seismotectonic context in the zones involved. Some years ago, this kind of procedure led us to identify the central-northern Apennines (i.e. the zone hit by the recent major earthquakes, 2016 and 2017) as the Italian area most prone to next strong shocks. The reliability of the methodology here proposed is also supported by the fact that the implications of the adopted tectonic setting can provide plausible and coherent explanations for the spatio-temporaldistribution of major earthquakes in the central Mediterranean area in the last six centuries

Geodynamics of the South Balkan and Northern Aegean Regions Driven by the Westward Escape of Anatolia

The Plio-Quaternary deformation pattern of the northern Aegean and south Balkan regions is interpreted as an effect of the interaction between the Anatolian-Aegean-Pelagonian system (Tethyan belt), undergoing westward extrusion and strong deformation, and the surrounding plates (Nubia, Europe and Adriatic). Since the middle-late Miocene, the collision of the Tethyan belt with the continental Adriatic domain has caused strong E-W shortening in the outer Hellenides and Albanides, also involving the southward extrusion of the Peloponnesus wedge, at the expense of the Ionian oceanic domain. The roughly E-W extension recognized in the western South Balkan zones (Macedonia and eastern Albania) is related to the divergence between the Pelagonian belt (Albanides and Hellenides) and the Rhodope-Moesia domain. Stressed by the westward displacement of the central Anatolian plateau and by the southward bowing of the Cycladic Arc, the northern Aegean zone has contemporaneously undergone E-W compression and N-S extension, which has generated a series of dextral shear faults, delimiting a number of slats. The westward displacement and deformation of such slats can explain the morphological features of the northern Aegean zone. During this phase, the push of the central Anatolian plateau also caused the separation of the Rhodope massif from the Moesian European domain, with the consequent formation of the upper Thrace basin. This hypothesis can explain the Plio-Quaternary compressional deformations recognized in a sector of the North Anatolian fault system, the Ganos-Gelibolu zone. The proposed geodynamic/tectonic interpretation may help to explain some features of the time-space distribution of major earthquakes in the study area

Short-Term Kinematics of the Adria Plate and Space-Time Distribution of Major Peri-Adriatic Earthquakes

Seismic activity is quite strong in the peri-Adriatic zones, whereas the internal part of the Adria plate is almost aseismic. This pattern suggests that Adria is a solid block that interacts with the surrounding belts, trying to move roughly northward. Each major earthquake in a peri-Adriatic zone triggers the acceleration of the decoupled Adria sector, which induces a perturbation of the stress/strain fields in the still blocked boundaries of the plate. Step by step, the displacement of Adria involves more and more northern zones to finally reach the northern front of the plate (eastern Southern Alps). This interpretation seems to be compatible with the time patterns of seismic activity in the main peri-Adriatic zones since 1600 A.D., which may suggest repeated northward migrations of seismic crises. Each supposed migrating sequence involves major earthquakes in most zones. The main features of the first 4 seismic sequences (1600-1930) are used to get insights into possible regularities in the progressive activations of the peri-Adriatic zones. This information and the main features of the ongoing migrating sequence (since 1931) are then used to tentatively recognize the peri-Adriatic zones where the occurrence of next major earthquakes may be most likely

Present Tectonic Setting and Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Seismicity in the Apennine Belt

In previous papers, we have argued that a close connection may exist between the discontinuous northward displacement of the Adria plate and the spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes in the periAdriatic regions [1]-[3]. In particular, five seismic sequences are tentatively recognized in the post 1400 A.D. seismic history, each characterized by a progressive migration of major shocks along the eastern (Hellenides, Dinarides), western (Apennines) and northern (Eastern Southern Alps) boundaries of Adria. In this work, we describe an attempt at gaining insights into the short-term evolution of the strain field that underlies the migration of seismicity in the Apennine belt. The results of this study suggest that seismicity in the study area is mainly conditioned by the fact that the outer (Adriatic) sector of the Apennine belt, driven by the Adria plate, is moving faster than the inner (Tyrrhenian) belt. This kinematics is consistent with the observed Pleistocene deformation pattern and the velocity field inferred by GPS data. The spatio-temporal distribution of major shocks during the last still ongoing seismic sequence (post 1930) suggests that at present the probability of next major shocks is highest in the Northern Apennines. Within this area, we suggest that seismic hazard is higher in the zones located around the outer sector of the Romagna-Marche-Umbria units (RMU), since that wedge is undergoing an accelerated relative motion with respect to the inner Apennine belt. This hypothesis may also account for the pattern of background seismicity in the Northern Apennines. This last activity might indicate that the Upper Tiber Valley fault system is the most resisted boundary sector of the RMU mobile wedge, implying an higher probability of major earthquakes