Repository of drought event impacts across the danube catchment countries between 1981 and 2016 using publicly available sources

Drought directly and indirectly affects human society in a number of ways. In many regions of the world climate change will exasperate the effects of droughts, affect national economies more intensely. The main aim of this article was to catalogue and analyze the drought impacts in the 11 Central and South Eastern European states located in the Danube river basin. The identification of dry episodes was based on information from publicly available sources, namely, newspaper and journal articles that reported drought impacts. Information on drought impact occurrences was classified into one of five defined categories in which the drought impact report was most clearly manifested (i.e., agriculture, forestry, soil systems, wildfires and hydrology). In terms of the spatial distribution of drought impacts, individual recorded events were analyzed at the level of EU NUTS regions (or their equivalent in non-EU countries). The analysis highlights country-specific vulnerability to drought. Furthermore, gradual increases in drought events and the number of reported impacts were identified, which was particularly evident in the agricultural sector

Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas.

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world's entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas

Detection of drought events using combination of satellite data and soil moisture modelling

The use of satellite data offers a potentially well usable tool to accurate drought monitoring. The study examines the space-time possibility of agricultural drought detection using freely available data from the MODIS instrument onboard Terra and Aqua satellites that reflects vegetation condition. Vegetation greenness metrics used in this study are based on the spectral reflectance curves in the visible red and near-infrared part of the spectrum and are expressed in relation to the average for the period of 2000-2014. The results are presented in weekly time step for the whole area of the Czech Republic, and are compared to the drought monitor system, based on the SoilClim dynamic model for soil water content estimates. These data, as well as other parameters, such as soil properties and land use, are integrated at 500 meters spatial resolution

Drought - present and future meteorological hazard.

Drought belongs to the climate extremes, which influence many branches of human activities. Selected methods of drought description and their application are reviewed in this contribution. Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and Palmer Z-index were modified to construct spatial drought climatology for individual regions (e.g. whole territory of Czech Republic). Newhall model was used for the estimation of the soil moisture regime. Based on plausible climate change scenarios, possible projections of future drought and soil moisture regime development are presented.(In Czech, English summary only

Estimating Crop Yields at the Field Level Using Landsat and Modis Products

Remote sensing can be used for yield estimation prior to harvest at the field level to provide helpful information for agricultural decision making. This study was undertaken in Polkovice, located at low elevations in the Czech Republic. From 2014–2016, two datasets of satellite imagery were used: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat 8 datasets. Satellite data were compared with yields and other observations at the level of land blocks. Winter oilseed rape, winter wheat and spring barley yield data, representing the crops planted over the analyzed period, were used for comparison. In 2016, a more detailed analysis was conducted. We tested a relationship between remote sensing data and the spatial yield variability measured by a yield monitor from a combine harvester. Correlations varied from approximately r = 0.4 to r = 0.7 with the highest correlation (r = 0.74) between yield and the Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index collected from a drone. Vegetation indices from both Landsat 8 and the MODIS showed a positive relationship with yields for the compared period. The highest correlation was between yield and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (r = 0.8) while the lowest was between yield and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from MODIS (r = 0.1)

Pest occurrence model in current climate – validation study for European domain

The present study yields detail validation of the pest occurrence models under current climate in wide European domain. Study organisms involve Cydia pomonella, Lobesia botrana, Ostrinia nubilalis, Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Oulema melanopus, Rhopalosiphum padi, and Sitobion avenae. Method used in this study belongs to the category climate matching (CLIMEX model) allowing the estimation of areas climatically favourable for species persistence based on the climatic parameters characterising the species development. In the process of model validation parameters were iteratively tested and altered to truly describe the pest presence. The modelled pests presence was verified by comparison of the observed pests occurrence with the number of generations in given modelled area. The notable component of the model parameterization was the sensitivity analyses testing the reaction of species development on changing meteorological items. Parameterization of the factors causing distribution patterns of study species was successful and modelled potential distributions of species correspond well to known core distribution areas for all of these species. This validation study is intended as an initial for forthcoming studies focused on the estimation of geographical shifts of selected pests in the conditions of climate change within the Europe

Consequences of climate change for the soil climate in Central Europe and the central plains of the United States

This study aims to evaluate soil climate quantitatively under present and projected climatic conditions across Central Europe (12.1°–18.9° E and 46.8°–51.1° N) and the U.S. Central Plains (90°–104° W and 37°–49° N), with a special focus on soil temperature, hydric regime, drought risk and potential productivity (assessed as a period suitable for crop growth). The analysis was completed for the baselines (1961–1990 for Europe and 1985–2005 for the U.S.) and time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2100 based on the outputs of three global circulation models using two levels of climate sensitivity. The results indicate that the soil climate (soil temperature and hydric soil regimes) will change dramatically in both regions, with significant consequences for soil genesis. However, the predicted changes of the pathways are very uncertain because of the range of future climate systems predicted by climate models. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the risk of unfavorable dry years will increase, resulting in greater risk of soil erosion and lower productivity. The projected increase in the variability of dry and wet events combined with the uncertainty (particularly in the U.S.) poses a challenge for selecting the most appropriate adaptation strategies and for setting adequate policies. The results also suggest that the soil resources are likely be under increased pressure from changes in climate. Includes Supplementary Materials

Fire Hazard: Undesirable Ecosystem Function of Orchard Vegetation

Fires will become an increasingly frequent perturbation even under the conditions of the mild climate zone and will interfere with the agricultural landscape. Fire is a natural phenomenon, and depending on ecosystems, vegetation may develop and contribute to the occurrence and spread of fire. Vegetation of the sour cherry orchard located in the climatically dry conditions of the South Moravian Region, Czech Republic (CR), was evaluated. Vegetation assessment was performed using phytocenological relevé. In each variant, 10 relevé were recorded. Coverage of the found species was estimated directly in percentages. Moreover, the maximum height in the stand was measured for each type of plant. Biomass of individual plant species was calculated, using the biomass index (IB) equation. The IB values of individual plant species in the treatments were processed by employing a multidimensional analysis of the ecological data. Different vegetation management practices in an orchard change the species diversity of the vegetation and thus the fire hazards in the orchard conditions. Grassy interrow has the most grass biomass during the entire vegetation season, and therefore represents the greatest hazard and spread of fire. The most important grasses include Arrhenatherum elatius, Dactylis glomerata, Festuca pratensis, Lolium perenne, and Poa pratensis. On the contrary, bare soil conditions in the interrow are most suitable for annual species, and this is the place with the highest changes in the number of species during the growing season. Biomass of the orchard vegetation combined with dry and warm weather increases the fire hazard. Annual and perennial grasses have very good potential for the production of biomass, which increases the hazard of fire. The nature of the vegetation in the orchards has the potential for the actual start of a fire and its subsequent spread, however, under other environmental conditions. During hot and dry weather, dead biomass may accumulate resulting in increasing the hazard of large wildfires. Varied orchard management practices lead to a higher diversity of vegetation and make orchards, islands of biodiversity in the agricultural landscape