Approximating the inspiral of test bodies into Kerr black holes

We present a new approximate method for constructing gravitational radiation driven inspirals of test-bodies orbiting Kerr black holes. Such orbits can be fully described by a semi-latus rectum $p$, an eccentricity $e$, and an inclination angle $\iota$; or, by an energy $E$, an angular momentum component $L_z$, and a third constant $Q$. Our scheme uses expressions that are exact (within an adiabatic approximation) for the rates of change ($\dot{p}$, $\dot{e}$, $\dot{\iota}$) as linear combinations of the fluxes ($\dot{E}$, $\dot{L_z}$, $\dot{Q}$), but uses quadrupole-order formulae for these fluxes. This scheme thus encodes the exact orbital dynamics, augmenting it with approximate radiation reaction. Comparing inspiral trajectories, we find that this approximation agrees well with numerical results for the special cases of eccentric equatorial and circular inclined orbits, far more accurate than corresponding weak-field formulae for ($\dot{p}$, $\dot{e}$, $\dot{\iota}$). We use this technique to study the inspiral of a test-body in inclined, eccentric Kerr orbits. Our results should be useful tools for constructing approximate waveforms that can be used to study data analysis problems for the future LISA gravitational-wave observatory, in lieu of waveforms from more rigorous techniques that are currently under development.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, submitted to PR

How black holes get their kicks: Gravitational radiation recoil revisited

Gravitational waves from the coalescence of binary black holes carry away linear momentum, causing center of mass recoil. This "radiation rocket" effect has important implications for systems with escape speeds of order the recoil velocity. We revisit this problem using black hole perturbation theory, treating the binary as a test mass spiraling into a spinning hole. For extreme mass ratios (q = m1/m2 << 1) we compute the recoil for the slow inspiral epoch of binary coalescence very accurately; these results can be extrapolated to q ~ 0.4 with modest accuracy. Although the recoil from the final plunge contributes significantly to the final recoil, we are only able to make crude estimates of its magnitude. We find that the recoil can easily reach ~ 100-200 km/s, but most likely does not exceed ~ 500 km/s. Though much lower than previous estimates, this recoil is large enough to have important astrophysical consequences. These include the ejection of black holes from globular clusters, dwarf galaxies, and high-redshift dark matter halos.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, emulateapj style; minor changes made; accepted to ApJ Letter

Perspectives of Statistician, Microbiologist, and Clinician Stakeholders on the Use of Microbiological Outcomes in Randomised Trials of Antimicrobial Stewardship Interventions

Microbiological data are used as indicators of infection, for diagnosis, and the identification of antimicrobial resistance in trials of antimicrobial stewardship interventions. However, several problems have been identified in a recently conducted systematic review (e.g., inconsistency in reporting and oversimplified outcomes), which motivates the need to understand and improve the use of these data including analysis and reporting. We engaged key stakeholders including statisticians, clinicians from both primary and secondary care, and microbiologists. Discussions included issues identified in the systematic review and questions about the value of using microbiological data in clinical trials, perspectives on current microbiological outcomes reported in trials, and alternative statistical approaches to analyse these data. Various factors (such as unclear sample collection process, dichotomising or categorising complex microbiological data, and unclear methods of handling missing data) were identified that contributed to the low quality of the microbiological outcomes and the analysis of these outcomes in trials. Whilst not all of these factors would be easy to overcome, there is room for improvement and a need to encourage researchers to understand the impact of misusing these data. This paper discusses the experience and challenges of using microbiological outcomes in clinical trials

The correlation of early flow disturbances with the development of infrainguinal graft stenosis: A 10-year study of 341 autogenous vein grafts

AbstractPurpose: Although duplex surveillance of infrainguinal bypass grafts is widely accepted, the optimal frequency and intensity of graft surveillance remains controversial. Earlier reports have suggested that grafts can be stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on the presence or absence of early graft flow disturbances. The purpose of this study was to provide long-term data in determining whether early graft flow disturbances detected by means of duplex scanning can predict the development of intrinsic vein graft stenosis. Methods: We reviewed a series of patients undergoing prospective duplex graft surveillance after autogenous infrainguinal bypass grafting procedures from 1987 to 1997. Patients included in the study underwent at least one duplex scan within 3 months of graft implantation and were observed for a minimum of 6 months. Grafts were categorized as abnormal when a focal flow disturbance with a peak systolic velocity greater than 150 cm/s was identified within 3 months of graft implantation. Results: Of 341 vein grafts in 296 patients who met inclusion criteria, 89 grafts (26%) required revision for intrinsic stenosis; the mean follow-up period was 35 months (range, 6 months to 10 years). Early flow disturbances were detected in 84 (25%) grafts. Grafts with early flow disturbances were more likely to ultimately require revision (43% vs 21%; P = .0001) and required initial revision earlier (8 months vs 16 months; P = .019). Eighty-two percent of initial graft revisions occurred in the first 2 postoperative years; 69% occurred in the first year. However, an annual 2% to 4% incidence of late-appearing graft stenosis persisted during long-term follow-up. An additional 24 patients (7% of grafts) required an inflow or outflow reconstruction. Conclusion: Grafts with early postoperative flow disturbances detected by means of duplex scanning have nearly three times the incidence of graft-threatening stenosis and an earlier requirement for revision, when compared with normal grafts. This suggests that the biology and etiology of these lesions may differ. These data support not only aggressive efforts to detect early graft lesions to stratify grafts at highest risk, but also continued lifelong graft surveillance to detect late-appearing lesions, inflow and outflow disease progression, and maximize graft patency. (J Vasc Surg 1999;30:8-15.

Shallow stratigraphic control on pockmark distribution in north temperate estuaries

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 329-331 (2012): 34-45, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2012.09.006.Pockmark fields occur throughout northern North American temperate estuaries despite the absence of extensive thermogenic hydrocarbon deposits typically associated with pockmarks. In such settings, the origins of the gas and triggering mechanism(s) responsible for pockmark formation are not obvious. Nor is it known why pockmarks proliferate in this region but do not occur south of the glacial terminus in eastern North America. This paper tests two hypotheses addressing these knowledge gaps: 1) the region's unique sea-level history provided a terrestrial deposit that sourced the gas responsible for pockmark formation; and 2) the region's physiography controls pockmarks distribution. This study integrates over 2500 km of high-resolution swath bathymetry, Chirp seismic reflection profiles and vibracore data acquired in three estuarine pockmark fields in the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy. Vibracores sampled a hydric paleosol lacking the organic-rich upper horizons, indicating that an organic-rich terrestrial deposit was eroded prior to pockmark formation. This observation suggests that the gas, which is presumably responsible for the formation of the pockmarks, originated in Holocene estuarine sediments (loss on ignition 3.5–10%), not terrestrial deposits that were subsequently drowned and buried by mud. The 7470 pockmarks identified in this study are non-randomly clustered. Pockmark size and distribution relate to Holocene sediment thickness (r2 = 0.60), basin morphology and glacial deposits. The irregular underlying topography that dictates Holocene sediment thickness may ultimately play a more important role in temperate estuarine pockmark distribution than drowned terrestrial deposits. These results give insight into the conditions necessary for pockmark formation in nearshore coastal environments.Graduate support for Brothers came from a Maine Economic Improvement Fund Dissertation Fellowship

Interstate Variation in the Burden of Fragility Fractures

Demographic differences may produce interstate variation in the burden of osteoporosis. We estimated the burden of fragility fractures by race/ethnicity, age, sex, and service site across five diverse and populous states. State inpatient databases for 2000 were used to describe hospital fracture admissions, and a Markov decision model was used to estimate annual fracture incidence and cost for populations ≥50 yr of age for 2005–2025 in Arizona (AZ), California (CA), Florida (FL), Massachusetts (MA), and New York (NY). In 2000, mean hospital charges for incident fractures varied 1.7-fold across states. For hip fracture, mean charges ranged from $16,700 (MA) to$29,500 (CA), length of stay from 5.3 (AZ) to 8.9 days (NY), and discharge rate to long-term care from 43% (NY) to 71% (CA). In 2005, projected fracture incidence rates ranged from 199 (CA) to 266 (MA) per 10,000. Total cost ranged from $270 million (AZ) to$1,434 million (CA). Men accounted for 26–30% of costs. Across states, hip fractures constituted on average 77% of costs; “other” fractures (e.g., leg, arm), 10%; pelvic, 6%; vertebral, 5%; and wrist, 2%. By 2025, Hispanics are projected to represent 20% of fractures in AZ and CA and Asian/Other populations to represent 27% of fractures in NY. In conclusion, state initiatives to prevent fractures should include nonwhite populations and men, as well as white women, and should address fractures at all skeletal sites. Interstate variation in service utilization merits further evaluation to determine efficient and effective disease management strategies

High-resolution characterisation of short-term temporal variability in the taxonomic and resistome composition of wastewater influent

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for population-level surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is gaining significant traction, but the impact of wastewater sampling methods on results is unclear. In this study, we characterized taxonomic and resistome differences between single-timepoint-grab and 24 h composites of wastewater influent from a large UK-based wastewater treatment work [WWTW (population equivalent: 223435)]. We autosampled hourly influent grab samples (n=72) over three consecutive weekdays, and prepared additional 24 h composites (n=3) from respective grabs. For taxonomic profiling, metagenomic DNA was extracted from all samples and 16S rRNA gene sequencing was performed. One composite and six grabs from day 1 underwent metagenomic sequencing for metagenomic dissimilarity estimation and resistome profiling. Taxonomic abundances of phyla varied significantly across hourly grab samples but followed a repeating diurnal pattern for all 3days. Hierarchical clustering grouped grab samples into four time periods dissimilar in both 16S rRNA gene-based profiles and metagenomic distances. 24H-composites resembled mean daily phyla abundances and showed low variability of taxonomic profiles. Of the 122 AMR gene families (AGFs) identified across all day 1 samples, single grab samples identified a median of six (IQR: 5–8) AGFs not seen in the composite. However, 36/36 of these hits were at lateral coverage <0.5 (median: 0.19; interquartile range: 0.16–0.22) and potential false positives. Conversely, the 24H-composite identified three AGFs not seen in any grab with higher lateral coverage (0.82; 0.55–0.84). Additionally, several clinically significant human AGFs (blaVIM, blaIMP, blaKPC) were intermittently or completely missed by grab sampling but captured by the 24 h composite. Wastewater influent undergoes significant taxonomic and resistome changes on short timescales potentially affecting interpretation of results based on sampling strategy. Grab samples are more convenient and potentially capture low-prevalence/transient targets but are less comprehensive and temporally variable. Therefore, we recommend 24H-composite sampling where feasible. Further validation and optimization of WBE methods is vital for its development into a robust AMR surveillance approach

High-resolution characterization of short-term temporal variability in the taxonomic and resistome composition of wastewater influent

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for population-level surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is gaining significant traction, but the impact of wastewater sampling methods on results is unclear. In this study, we characterized taxonomic and resistome differences between single-timepoint-grab and 24 h composites of wastewater influent from a large UK-based wastewater treatment work [WWTW (population equivalent: 223 435)]. We autosampled hourly influent grab samples (n=72) over three consecutive weekdays, and prepared additional 24 h composites (n=3) from respective grabs. For taxonomic profiling, metagenomic DNA was extracted from all samples and 16S rRNA gene sequencing was performed. One composite and six grabs from day 1 underwent metagenomic sequencing for metagenomic dissimilarity estimation and resistome profiling. Taxonomic abundances of phyla varied significantly across hourly grab samples but followed a repeating diurnal pattern for all 3 days. Hierarchical clustering grouped grab samples into four time periods dissimilar in both 16S rRNA gene-based profiles and metagenomic distances. 24H-composites resembled mean daily phyla abundances and showed low variability of taxonomic profiles. Of the 122 AMR gene families (AGFs) identified across all day 1 samples, single grab samples identified a median of six (IQR: 5–8) AGFs not seen in the composite. However, 36/36 of these hits were at lateral coverage <0.5 (median: 0.19; interquartile range: 0.16–0.22) and potential false positives. Conversely, the 24H-composite identified three AGFs not seen in any grab with higher lateral coverage (0.82; 0.55–0.84). Additionally, several clinically significant human AGFs (bla VIM, bla IMP, bla KPC) were intermittently or completely missed by grab sampling but captured by the 24 h composite. Wastewater influent undergoes significant taxonomic and resistome changes on short timescales potentially affecting interpretation of results based on sampling strategy. Grab samples are more convenient and potentially capture low-prevalence/transient targets but are less comprehensive and temporally variable. Therefore, we recommend 24H-composite sampling where feasible. Further validation and optimization of WBE methods is vital for its development into a robust AMR surveillance approach