Land-Rich Economies, Education and Economic Development

We analyze the emergence of large-scale education systems in a setup where growth is associated with changes in the configuration of the economy. The model is based on three central elements: first, individual preferences over consumption goods generate changes in the composition of individual spending as income grows, embodied in Engel curves. Second, the production of sophisticated services is intensive in human capital. Third, investment in human capital by individual households faces borrowing constraints. Our model uses an overlapping generation framework similar to the one in Galor and Moav (2003). As that paper does, we also model the incentives that the economic ´elite may have (collectively) to accept taxation destined to finance the education of credit-constrained workers. In our model this incentive does not necessarily arise from a complementarity between physical and human capital in manufacturing. Rather, we emphasize the demand for human-capital-intensive services by high-income groups. The argument model seems capable to account for salient features of the development of Latin America in the 19th century, where, in particular, land-rich countries such as Argentina established an extensive public education system and a sophisticated service sector before developing significant manufacturing activities.

Missed Expectations: The Argentine Convertibility

This paper studies the process that led to the Argentine crisis. The crisis is understood as a major disappointment of previous expectations, indicated by widespread insolvencies and abrupt declines in consumption. The analysis concentrates on the sequence of public and private decisions, and the varying perceptions and policy incentives that motivated them. In the nineties Argentina searched for a new growth trend. During much of the period, the behavior of agents seemed to be based on the anticipation that current and future incomes could sustain a value of domestic spending much higher than in the past. The government was motivated to reinforce those expectations, for signaling and political economy reasons. The convertibility monetary regime not only provided a very visible nominal anchor, but also operated as a basic framework for financial contracts, mostly denominated in dollars. Dollar contracting implicitly presumed that the dollar value of incomes would support the servicing of debts. Despite precautionary measures, the reliance on the sustainability of the real exchange rate increased over time. In the late nineties exports stopped rising and the foreign supply of credit tightened. Facing these contraints, the economy contracted and the solvency of the government was put into question. The financial system was vulnerable both in the event of devaluation and that of a (large) deflation-cum-adjustment. As was implicit in its design and management, convertibility proved to have very large exit costs.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39900/3/wp515.pd

Income Distribution, Factor Endowments, and Trade Revisited: The Role of Non-Tradable Goods

We return to the traditional theme of the distributive consequences of international prices and trade policies, focusing on economies relatively abundant in natural resources with a large non-tradable-goods sector. Changes in international prices create an aggregate demand effect which impacts on the earnings of factors employed in the non-traded goods sector. We show that, in economies highly specialized in the production of tradable goods and where the import-competing sector is small, under standard assumptions, terms-of- trade shifts have a neutral effect on factor prices and thus lack distributive effects, quite differently from Stolper-Samuelson scenarios. In economies with sizable import-competing sectors and two ?urban? productive factors (e.g. skilled and unskilled labor), changes in the terms of trade do induce distributional tensions through two channels: (i) the exogenous shift in the relative price of tradable goods, and (ii) the endogenous displacement of the demand for non-tradables. We illustrate how, according to the structure of the economy, different patterns of income distribution may arise. Next, we analyze the introduction of trade duties. Trade taxes change relative prices between tradable goods as a terms-of-trade shock does, but also introduce an additional demand mechanism, that depends on the use the government gives to the revenues. If the tax revenues are transferred back to the private sector, the resulting reallocation of spending favors those factors used intensively in the production of non-tradables.Fil: Galiani, Sebastian. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Heymann, Carlos Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Politica de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Politica de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Magud, Nicolas E.. International Monetary Fund.; Estados Unido

On the (In)consistency of RE Modeling

Rational Expectations (RE) is typically interpreted as: (i) an equivalence between the probability distribution of future outcomes informing agents´ decisions and the objective distributions; or: (ii) a correspondence between the expectations of agents and those generated by professionally validated models. Both definitions differ, unless absolute validity is counterfactually attributed fallible models built by economists. Another ambiguity arises with the model-consistency notion, since what is considered relevant theory has varied over time and across researchers, especially in Macroeconomics. These issues affect the logic and significance of analytical procedures for treating expectations, and seem particularly pertinent when studying crises.La noción de expectativas racionales (RE) se interpreta típicamente como (i) una equivalencia entre la distribución de probabilidades de eventos futuros que guía las decisiones de los agentes y la distribución que de hecho caracteriza a esa evolución futura; o, (ii) una correspondencia entre las expectativas de los agentes y las distribuciones que serían generadas por la teoría relevante, profesionalmente validada. Ambas definiciones son distintas a menos que, contrafácticamente, se atribuya validez plena a los falibles y mutables modelos elaborados por los economistas. Una ambigüedad adicional surge con la noción de modelo- consistencia, porque lo que se considera teoría relevante ha variado con el tiempo y suele diferir entre analistas, particularmente en Macroeconomía. Estas cuestiones afectan a la lógica y el significado de los procedimientos usados en la representación de las expectativas, y serían especialmente centrales en el estudio de fenómenos de crisis.Fil: Heymann, Carlos Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Pascuini, Paulo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Temas Tradicionales: Sobre stop go y devaluaciones contractivas

El interés por estudiar con una perspectiva analítica rasgos particulares del desempeño macroeconómico del país tiene larga historia en la Argentina. En los 1960s y 1970s, un rico conjunto de trabajos investigó patrones de comportamiento salientes, como las intensas fluctuaciones de actividad y precios asociadas con la variable disponibilidad de divisas (stop go). En este artículo se vuelve sobre estos temas, en un marco analítico similar al empleado en la literatura tradicional, y poniendo énfasis en las implicancias de las restricciones macroeconómicas de presupuesto. Los resultados permiten precisar condiciones para la validez de efectos como las devaluaciones contractivas.Fil: Heymann, Carlos Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Politica de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Politica de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Alejandro Nakab. University of California; Estados Unido