A high-resolution bedrock map for the Antarctic Peninsula

Assessing and projecting the dynamic response of glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula to changed atmospheric and oceanic forcing requires high-resolution ice thickness data as an essential geometric constraint for ice flow models. Here, we derive a complete bedrock data set for the Antarctic Peninsula north of 70° S on a 100 m grid. We calculate distributed ice thickness based on surface topography and simple ice dynamic modelling. Our approach is constrained with all available thickness measurements from Operation IceBridge and gridded ice flow speeds for the entire study region. The new data set resolves the rugged subglacial topography in great detail, indicates deeply incised troughs, and shows that 34% of the ice volume is grounded below sea level. The Antarctic Peninsula has the potential to raise global sea level by 69 ± 5 mm. In comparison to Bedmap2, covering all Antarctica on a 1 km grid, a significantly higher mean ice thickness (+48%) is found

Deriving the response of glaciers from an ice-dynamic model

The Tenth Symposium on Polar Science/Ordinary sessions: [OM] Polar Meteorology and Glaciology, Wed. 4 Dec. / 2F Auditorium, National Institute of Polar Researc

Regional and Annual Variability in Subglacial Sediment Transport by Water for Two Glaciers in the Swiss Alps

Glaciers expel large amounts of water and sediments, and the discharge of both is influenced by glacier retreat. Because the majority of sediment originates subglacially, as opposed to proglacially, focus must be given to subglacial sediment discharge. The latter, however, is poorly constrained. We present a subglacial sediment transport time-series from the Gornergletscher and Aletschgletscher catchments in the Swiss Alps, based on hourly suspended sediment transport data and bedload transport estimates. This dataset is used to identify interannual and regional variability and to quantify the relationship between sediment transport and water discharge. Analysis of the relationship suggests that the access of water to subglacial sediment exerts substantial control on the quantity of sediment discharged. Historical data from Gornergletscher since the 1970's show that elevated amounts of sediment were discharged in the 1980's, following the onset of increasing glacier melt. However, by 2016 and 2017, the sediment discharge had returned to quantities below those in the 1970's, suggesting that sediment discharge may return to an equilibrium over decadal times scales following the onset of a new hydrological regime. Erosion rates for the two catchments (0.28 mm a−1 to 0.49 mm a−1) are lower than in other glacierized catchments of the Swiss Alps (~1 mm a−1). In some years in both catchments, these rates are even less than a third of those reported in earlier decades, highlighting substantial regional and interannual variability in catchment-scale erosion. Empirical models of the relationship between sediment concentration and water discharge, calibrated with the presented 2016–2017 data, fail to capture the elevated sediment discharge over the 1980's. This suggests that processes other than runoff, such as changing access to subglacial sediment by meltwater, were responsible for the increase. Subglacial sediment discharge depends on both water discharge and sediment availability. Therefore, we argue that physically-based models of subglacial sediment transport, that can capture its complex temporal and spatial evolution in response to glacier retreat, are needed to predict and understand a glacier's sediment yield

The bedrock topography of Gries- and Findelengletscher

Knowledge of the ice thickness distribution of glaciers is important for glaciological and hydrological applications. In this contribution, we present two updated bedrock topographies and ice thickness distributions for Gries- and Findelengletscher, Switzerland. The results are based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) measurements collected in spring 2015 and already-existing data. The GPR data are analysed using ReflexW software and interpolated by using the ice thickness estimation method (ITEM). ITEM calculates the thickness distribution by using principles of ice flow dynamics and characteristics of the glacier surface. We show that using such a technique has a significance advantage compared to a direct interpolation of the measurements, especially for glacier areas that are sparsely covered by GPR data. The uncertainties deriving from both the interpretation of the GPR signal and the spatial interpolation through ITEM are quantified separately, showing that, in our case, GPR signal interpretation is a major source of uncertainty. The results show a total glacier volume of 0.28±0.06 and 1.00±0.34 km3 for Gries- and Findelengletscher, respectively, with corresponding average ice thicknesses of 56.8±12.7 and 56.3±19.6 m

The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production

High elevation or high latitude hydropower production (HP) strongly relies on water resources that are influenced by glacier melt and are thus highly sensitive to climate warming. Despite of the wide-spread glacier retreat since the development of HP infrastructure in the 20th century, little quantitative information is available about the role of glacier mass loss for HP. In this paper, we provide the first regional quantification for the share of Alpine hydropower production that directly relies on the waters released by glacier mass loss, i.e. on the depletion of long-term ice storage that cannot be replenished by precipitation in the coming decades. Based on the case of Switzerland (which produces over 50% of its electricity from hydropower), we show that since 1980, 3.0%–4.0% (1.0–1.4 TWh yr−1) of the country-scale hydropower production was directly provided by the net glacier mass loss and that this share is likely to reduce substantially by 2040–2060. For the period 2070–2090, a production reduction of about 1.0 TWh yr−1 is anticipated. The highlighted strong regional differences, both in terms of HP share from glacier mass loss and in terms of timing of production decline, emphasize the need for similar analyses in other Alpine or high latitude regions

Estimating the ice thickness of mountain glaciers with a shape optimization algorithm using surface topography and mass-balance

We present a shape optimization algorithm to estimate the ice thickness distribution within a two-dimensional, non-sliding mountain glacier, given a transient surface geometry and a mass-balance distribution. The approach is based on the minimization of the surface topography misfit at the end of the glacier's evolution in the shallow ice approximation of ice flow. Neither filtering of the surface topography where its gradient vanishes nor interpolation of the basal shear stress is involved. Novelty of the presented shape optimization algorithm is the use of surface topography and mass-balance only within a time-dependent Lagrangian approach for moving-boundary glaciers. On real-world inspired geometries, it is shown to produce estimations of even better quality in smaller time than the recently proposed steady and transient inverse methods. A sensitivity analysis completes the study and evinces the method's higher susceptibility to perturbations in the surface topography than in surface mass-balance or rate facto

Modelling the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps under the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble

Glaciers in the European Alps play an important role in the hydrological cycle, act as a source for hydroelectricity and have a large touristic importance. The future evolution of these glaciers is driven by surface mass balance and ice flow processes, of which the latter is to date not included explicitly in regional glacier projections for the Alps. Here, we model the future evolution of glaciers in the European Alps with GloGEMflow, an extended version of the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEM), in which both surface mass balance and ice flow are explicitly accounted for. The mass balance model is calibrated with glacier-specific geodetic mass balances and forced with high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO- CORDEX ensemble. The evolution of the total glacier volume in the coming decades is relatively similar under the various representative concentrations pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), with volume losses of about 47 %–52 % in 2050 with respect to 2017. We find that under RCP2.6, the ice loss in the second part of the 21st century is relatively limited and that about one-third (36.8 % ± 11.1 %, multi-model mean ±1σ) of the present-day (2017) ice volume will still be present in 2100. Under a strong warming (RCP8.5) the future evolution of the glaciers is dictated by a substantial increase in surface melt, and glaciers are projected to largely disappear by 2100 (94.4±4.4 % volume loss vs. 2017). For a given RCP, differences in future changes are mainly determined by the driving global climate model (GCM), rather than by the RCM, and these differences are larger than those arising from various model parameters (e.g. flow parameters and cross-section parameterisation). We find that under a limited warming, the inclusion of ice dynamics reduces the projected mass loss and that this effect increases with the glacier elevation range, implying that the inclusion of ice dynamics is likely to be important for global glacier evolution projections

Measuring changes in snowpack SWE continuously on a landscape scale using lake water pressure

The seasonal snowpack is a globally important water resource that is notoriously difficult to measure. Existing instruments make measurements of falling or accumulating snow water equivalent (SWE) that are susceptible to bias, and most represent only a point in the landscape. Furthermore the global array of SWE sensors is too sparse and too poorly distributed to adequately constrain snow in weather and climate models. We present a new approach to monitoring snowpack SWE from time series of lake water pressure. We tested our method in the lowland Finnish Arctic and in an alpine valley and high-mountain cirque in Switzerland, and found that we could measure changes in SWE and their uncertainty through snowfalls with little bias and with an uncertainty comparable to or better than that achievable by other instruments. More importantly, our method inherently senses change over the whole lake surface, an area in this study up to 10.95 km2 or 274 million times larger than the nearest pluviometer. This large scale makes our measurements directly comparable to the grid cells of weather and climate models. We find, for example, snowfall biases of up to 100% in operational forecast models AROME-Arctic and COSMO-1. Seasonally-frozen lakes are widely distributed at high latitudes and are particularly common in mountain ranges, hence our new method is particularly well suited to the widespread, autonomous monitoring of snow-water resources in remote areas that are largely unmonitored today. This is potentially transformative in reducing uncertainty in regional precipitation and runoff in seasonally-cold climates

Re-analysis of seasonal mass balance at Abramov glacier 1968–2014

Abramov glacier, located in the Pamir Alay, Kyrgyzstan, is a reference glacier within the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers. Long-term glaciological measurements exist from 1968 to 1998 and a mass-balance monitoring programme was re-established in 2011. In this study we re-analyse existing mass-balance data and use a spatially distributed mass-balance model to provide continuous seasonal time series of glacier mass balance covering the period 1968–2014. The model is calibrated to seasonal mass-balance surveys and then applied to the period with no measurements. Validation and recalibration is carried out using snowline observations derived from satellite imagery and, after 2011, also from automatic terrestrial camera images. We combine direct measurements, remote observations and modelling. The results are compared to geodetic glacier volume change over the past decade and to a ground-penetrating radar survey in the accumulation zone resolving several layers of accumulation. Previously published geodetic mass budget estimates for Abramov glacier suggest a close-to-zero mass balance for the past decade, which contradicts our results. We find a low plausibility for equilibrium conditions over the past 15 years. Instead, we suggest that the glacier's sensitivity to increased summer air temperature is decisive for the substantial mass loss during the past decade