Macroeconomic Volatility and Terms of Trade Shocks

This paper explores the effect of terms of trade volatility on macroeconomic volatility using a panel of 71 countries from 1971–2005. It finds that terms of trade volatility has a statistically significant and positive impact on the volatility of output growth and inflation, although the magnitudes of these effects depend on the policy framework and the structure of markets. Specifically, adopting a more flexible exchange rate tends to ameliorate the effect of terms of trade shocks on macroeconomic volatility. The paper also finds some evidence that a monetary policy regime that focuses on low inflation helps to moderate the volatility of output and inflation in the face of a volatile terms of trade. The same is true of financial market development in the case of output volatility. Using data on the expenditure components of GDP, the channels through which terms of trade shocks affect output are examined. The results suggest that terms of trade volatility has its largest effect on the volatility of consumption, exports and imports. There is evidence to suggest that greater financial market development helps to mitigate the effect of terms of trade volatility on consumption volatility, while monetary policy that focuses on low inflation is associated with lower volatility of imports.terms of trade shocks; growth; inflation; structural reform

'To do or not to do (gender)' and changing the sex-typing of British theatre

Concepts of doing, and undoing, gender have become increasingly prevalent within studies of sex-typed work. However these concepts, as currently figured and applied, contain a significant analytical lacuna: they tend not to register changes in the sex-typing of work. In this study we engage this research gap by addressing the changing sex-typing of British Theatre – specifically, the shift from female dominated amateur to male dominated professional theatre work. We draw upon, and develop, concepts of doing and undoing gender to understand changes in the sex typing of work. In so doing, we explain how spatially and temporally differentiated ways of doing ‘male’ and ‘female’, become implicated in how people make sense of, and enact, the changing spaces and times of ‘amateur/female’ ‘professional/male’ work. Our analysis of theatre work suggests that, despite recent criticisms of their wider significance, concepts of un/doing gender, are useful to understand broader changes in the sex-typing of work. Thus, it also appears possible to (un)change such sex-typings by undoing gender. However, our analysis suggests, such subversive acts remain ineffective, unless those involved in such gendered undoings engage with, rather than renounce, the gendered doings that help enact the changing sex-typing of work

Contending cultures of counterterrorism: transatlantic divergence or convergence?

Terrorist attacks on the United States, Spain and the United Kingdom have underlined the differing responses of Europe and the United States to the 'new terrorism'. This article analyses these responses through the prism of historically determined strategic cultures. For the last four years the United States has directed the full resources of a 'national security' approach towards this threat and has emphasized unilateralism. Europe, based on its own past experience of terrorism, has adopted a regulatory approach pursued through multilateralism. These divergences in transatlantic approaches, with potentially major implications for the future of the relationship, have appeared to be mitigated by a revised American strategy of counterterrorism that has emerged during 2005. However, this article contends that while strategic doctrines may change, the more immutable nature of strategic culture will make convergence difficult. This problem will be compounded by the fact that neither Europe nor America have yet addressed the deeper connections between terrorism and the process of globalization

Together, Slowly but Surely: The Role of Social Interaction and Feedback on the Build-Up of Benefit in Collective Decision-Making

That objective reference is necessary for formation of reliable beliefs about the external world is almost axiomatic. However, Condorcet (1785) suggested that purely subjective information—if shared and combined via social interaction—is enough for accurate understanding of the external world. We asked if social interaction and objective reference contribute differently to the formation and build-up of collective perceptual beliefs. In three experiments, dyads made individual and collective perceptual decisions in a two-interval, forced-choice, visual search task. In Experiment 1, participants negotiated their collective decisions with each other verbally and received feedback about accuracy at the end of each trial. In Experiment 2, feedback was not given. In Experiment 3, communication was not allowed but feedback was provided. Social interaction (Experiments 1 and 2 vs. 3) resulted in a significant collective benefit in perceptual decisions. When feedback was not available a collective benefit was not initially obtained but emerged through practice to the extent that in the second half of the experiments, collective benefits obtained with (Experiment 1) and without (Experiment 2) feedback were robust and statistically indistinguishable. Taken together, this work demonstrates that social interaction was necessary for build-up of reliable collaborative benefit, whereas objective reference only accelerated the process but—given enough opportunity for practice—was not necessary for building up successful cooperation

The diagnostic value of the stump impingement reflex sign for determining anterior cruciate ligament stump impingement as a cause of knee locking

BACKGROUND: The stump impingement reflex is a subtle bounce to the knee thought to be caused by hamstring contraction when the knee is brought into extension and the torn ACL stump impinges between the distal femur and the tibial plateau. We have studied the diagnostic value of this sign. FINDINGS: From Feb 2008-Feb 2009, we audited 30 patients who underwent urgent arthroscopy for acutely locked knees. The presence of the stump impingement reflex prior to surgery was compared with the intra-operative findings. The diagnostic values of the stump impingement sign were found to be: Sensitivity 58%, Specificity 81%, Positive predictive value 70%, Negative predictive value 72% and Accuracy 71%. CONCLUSIONS: We believe that the stump impingement reflex is a specific sign for ACL stump impingement as a cause of knee locking. We recommend close inspection for this sign when examining locked knees