The food insecurity gap and protracted humanitarian crisis

In 2022, record-high food prices, supply-chain disruptions and increasing climate and conflict risks are causing millions of people across the globe to face worsening levels of food insecurity. But the trend toward greater food insecurity is not simply a product of current events. The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2022 highlights that the population considered in need of urgent action due to acute food insecurity doubled between 2016 and 2021. Food insecurity can cause, deepen, or worsen humanitarian crises, and understanding the most effective ways to target assistance is crucial to preventing multiple and protracted crises.What is food insecurity?Acute food insecurity is faced by people who are unable to afford or access essential food needs, and presents the risks of malnutrition, starvation or death. While the risk of food insecurity is greater for those in humanitarian crisis contexts, a humanitarian crisis does not have to be present for countries to experience high levels of food insecurity.There are a number of metrics which indicate the overall level of food insecurity in a country: the absolute size of a population facing food insecurity; the size of a population facing food insecurity relative to the total population; and the intensity of the food insecurity felt by the population in need, as measured by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) acute food insecurity Phases 1-5.IPC phases range from 1 to 5, where Phases 1 or 2 (minimal or stressed) indicate no immediate unmet food needs; and Phases 3, 4, and 5 (crisis, emergency and catastrophe/famine) indicate increasing severity of unmet food needs and the requirement for urgent assistance. The number of people in Phase 3 and above is a primary metric in tracking food insecurity, although the IPC does not cover every country every year. In 2022, the GRFC assessed 53 countries experiencing acute food insecurity and requiring external emergency assistance to cope. To produce a global total, other sources such as humanitarian needs assessments can be used to supplement IPC data, although these figures may use differing definitions of food security. For more information on calculating the number of people facing food insecurity in countries not covered by the IPC, see the methodology in the Appendix.The food insecurity gapKnowing the overall numbers of people facing food insecurity does not give a complete picture, as the intensity of food insecurity differs between populations, ranging from crisis-level (IPC Phase 3) to catastrophic levels or even famine (IPC Phase 5).We can understand the difference in these levels as increasing gaps in food insecurity: populations with a greater gap – or deeper food insecurity – are experiencing more intense food insecurity and require a different and more urgent set of interventions. Measuring how the intensity of food insecurity differs and changes between populations is vital to understanding and comparing levels of need, and tracking progress over time. To do this, we created a metric known as the 'food insecurity gap', a single percentage figure which indicates the intensity of food insecurity across a population. See the Appendix for more information on the methodology used to calculate this metric.How do we define humanitarian crisis?We define countries experiencing humanitarian crisis as those with a United Nations (UN)-coordinated humanitarian appeal. We identify countries facing protracted crisis as those with five or more consecutive years of UN-coordinated humanitarian appeals, while recurrent-crisis countries are those with two to four consecutive years of appeals. As of September 2022, there are 71 countries with UN-coordinated humanitarian appeals and 44 facing protracted crisis

An exploration of the missing data mechanism in an Internet based smoking cessation trial.

BACKGROUND: Missing outcome data are very common in smoking cessation trials. It is often assumed that all such missing data are from participants who have been unsuccessful in giving up smoking ("missing=smoking"). Here we use data from a recent Internet based smoking cessation trial in order to investigate which of a set of a priori chosen baseline variables are predictive of missingness, and the evidence for and against the "missing=smoking" assumption. METHODS: We use a selection model, which models the probability that the outcome is observed given the outcome and other variables. The selection model includes a parameter for which zero indicates that the data are Missing at Random (MAR) and large values indicate "missing=smoking". We examine the evidence for the predictive power of baseline variables in the context of a sensitivity analysis. We use data on the number and type of attempts made to obtain outcome data in order to estimate the association between smoking status and the missing data indicator. RESULTS: We apply our methods to the iQuit smoking cessation trial data. From the sensitivity analysis, we obtain strong evidence that older participants are more likely to provide outcome data. The model for the number and type of attempts to obtain outcome data confirms that age is a good predictor of missing data. There is weak evidence from this model that participants who have successfully given up smoking are more likely to provide outcome data but this evidence does not support the "missing=smoking" assumption. The probability that participants with missing outcome data are not smoking at the end of the trial is estimated to be between 0.14 and 0.19. CONCLUSIONS: Those conducting smoking cessation trials, and wishing to perform an analysis that assumes the data are MAR, should collect and incorporate baseline variables into their models that are thought to be good predictors of missing data in order to make this assumption more plausible. However they should also consider the possibility of Missing Not at Random (MNAR) models that make or allow for less extreme assumptions than "missing=smoking".RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

A general method for handling missing binary outcome data in randomized controlled trials.

AIMS: The analysis of randomized controlled trials with incomplete binary outcome data is challenging. We develop a general method for exploring the impact of missing data in such trials, with a focus on abstinence outcomes. DESIGN: We propose a sensitivity analysis where standard analyses, which could include 'missing = smoking' and 'last observation carried forward', are embedded in a wider class of models. SETTING: We apply our general method to data from two smoking cessation trials. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 489 and 1758 participants from two smoking cessation trials. MEASUREMENTS: The abstinence outcomes were obtained using telephone interviews. FINDINGS: The estimated intervention effects from both trials depend on the sensitivity parameters used. The findings differ considerably in magnitude and statistical significance under quite extreme assumptions about the missing data, but are reasonably consistent under more moderate assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: A new method for undertaking sensitivity analyses when handling missing data in trials with binary outcomes allows a wide range of assumptions about the missing data to be assessed. In two smoking cessation trials the results were insensitive to all but extreme assumptions

Media Literacy, Democracy, and the Challenge of Fake News

In this essay, the authors offer a context for discussions about fake news, democracy, and considerations for media literacy education. Drawing on media ecology and critical media studies, they highlight the longer history of fake news and how this concept cannot be separated from the media technologies in which cultures grow. They discuss current iterations of this phenomenon alongside the effects of social media and offer a preview of the special issue

Assessing Habitat Compensation in the Lower Fraser River and Estuary

Over the last century, wetland ecosystems along the Lower Fraser River (LFR) have been heavily impacted by foreshore development and industry. Wetlands along the LFR provide important ecosystem services and habitat for wildlife such as rearing grounds for fish and staging grounds for migratory birds. For 30 years, habitat compensation has been the accepted method for offsetting habitat degradation; however, due to a lack of follow-up research and consistent baseline data it is yet to be determined if compensation projects truly replicate habitat lost. This project, funded by the National Wetland Conservation Fund, aims to (1) review, assess, and determine the success of selected wetland habitat compensation sites along the LFR and (2) create an open access, interactive online map to promote access to data and improve accountability. The success of each site was analysed in two ways; assessing both regulatory achievements and the ecosystem health. Regulatory success was determined by ground truthing habitats to determine if spatial obligations were fulfilled. Ecosystem health was assessed through vegetation surveys. The main indicators of health were based on the relative percent cover of native species relative to non-native species. The study also examined ecosystem health along spatial and temporal gradients, in relation to wetland structure design, as well as in relation to stressors such as waterfowl grazing and log debris. Project findings will provide tangible suggestions for increasing compensation habitat success in the region and a comprehensive source of baseline data for future studies

Chiasma

Newspaper reporting on events at the Boston University School of Medicine in the 1960s

Methods in Plant Foliar Volatile Organic Compounds Research

Plants are a major atmospheric source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These secondary metabolic products protect plants from high-temperature stress, mediate in plant–plant and plant–insect communication, and affect our climate globally. The main challenges in plant foliar VOC research are accurate sampling, the inherent reactivity of some VOC compounds that makes them hard to detect directly, and their low concentrations. Plant VOC research relies on analytical techniques for trace gas analysis, usually based on gas chromatography and soft chemical ionization mass spectrometry. Until now, these techniques (especially the latter one) have been developed and used primarily by physicists and analytical scientists, who have used them in a wide range of scientific research areas (e.g., aroma, disease biomarkers, hazardous compound detection, atmospheric chemistry). The interdisciplinary nature of plant foliar VOC research has recently attracted the attention of biologists, bringing them into the field of applied environmental analytical sciences. In this paper, we review the sampling methods and available analytical techniques used in plant foliar VOC research to provide a comprehensive resource that will allow biologists moving into the field to choose the most appropriate approach for their studies

Multiple Visions of Teachers\u27 Understandings of Mathematics

In this dialog, the notion of mathematical understanding as might be needed by classroom teachers is critically examined by mathematics educators, mathematicians, and a classroom teacher, based on the outcomes of recent work with expert classroom teachers. Terminology, assumptions and examples are discussed and analysed from a number of points of view. Ultimately, the goal is to construct common ground from which appropriate mathematics courses for future teachers might be developed and taught. The need for common terminology and a unifying framework from which to work becomes apparent as multiple interpretations and visions are discussed

Report on the health of Colorado's forests

The reports describes "an annual investigation of critical forest health issues, including the identification of priority areas across the state where current forest conditions demand timely action." They are intended to "expand Coloradans' knowledge of and interest in our state's forest resources.".Reports produced by the Colorado State Forest Service in conjunction with Colorado Department of Natural Resources, Division of Forestry.Includes bibliographical references.January 2017Fire and water. The words themselves evoke contrasting forces of nature - fire, often viewed as an all-consuming inferno of destruction; water, a quenching and life-sustaining means of rejuvenation. But such generalizations are not always accurate, especially in Colorado. Fire is necessary to the ecology of healthy forests, and can be a useful wildland firefighting tool for containment and fuels reduction, while life-giving streams and rivers may turn into raging torrents that cause heavy erosion and loss of property and life. So important are these two natural elements that we've chosen them for the focus of this year's forest health report, to give you a better understanding of their impacts on Colorado's forested lands. Fire and water are integrally linked as necessary components in shaping a healthy, natural forest environment; in return, both are heavily influenced by forests themselves. Fire has significant impacts on people and forests; less obvious are the effects it has on the quality and quantity of water available for human and agricultural consumption. The demand for water, of particular concern in rapidly developing sections of our state, underscores the need to work across organizational boundaries to develop effective solutions. Interagency efforts highlight the importance of forest management to safeguard water supplies from post-fire erosion so water providers can maintain their ability to provide safe, clean water to Colorado residents in a cost-effective, consistent manner. In this report, we take the opportunity to highlight collaborative partnerships and projects with Denver Water, Northern Water, the City of Ouray and professionals implementing Colorado's Water Plan