Do the Barcelona agreements allow some convergence of the Moroccan economy? A comparative analysis (In French)

The study aims at examining the assumption of a âBarcelona agreementâ effect on the convergence of Morocco economy. The concept of convergence will be approached according three logics: convergence of Morocco economy towards its own steady state; towards the others countries of the Agreement (the UMA countries) and towards the countries of the EU. This study uses, as an indicator, the β-convergence and the σ-convergence.\r\nEconomic integration, Trade policy, Neoclassical model of Trade, convergence

Do the Barcelona agreements allow some convergence of the Moroccan economy? A comparative analysis (In French)

The study aims at examining the assumption of a âBarcelona agreementâ effect on the convergence of Morocco economy. The concept of convergence will be approached according three logics: convergence of Morocco economy towards its own steady state; towards the others countries of the Agreement (the UMA countries) and towards the countries of the EU. This study uses, as an indicator, the β-convergence and the σ-convergence..Economic integration, Trade policy, Neoclassical model of Trade, convergence.

LES RELATIONS ENTRE LES INVESTISSEMENTS DIRECTS ÉTRANGERS MAROCAINS ET TUNISIENS : CONCURRENCE DES TERRITOIRES OU EFFETS DE DÉVERSEMENT D'ATTRACTIVITÉ ?

The key factors influencing foreign firms’ decisions to locate in developing economies are now rather well documented by empirical studies, and a growing number of countries have implemented similar reforms to promote political and macroeconomic stability and microeconomic incentives. But trade-offs or complementarities between investments received by close national economic spaces can occur and explain part of their performance or their under-performance in attracting FDI. In this paper we try to assess if there is an adverse (positive) relationship between FDI flows in Tunisia and in Morocco. We test this hypothesis within the framework of a model with VEC and we show that FDI in Tunisia improve the business climate in the region and increase FDI in Morocco in an indirect way. But, meanwhile, Morocco may undergo a significant diversion of FDI in favour of Tunisia in the long run.INVESTISSEMENTS DIRECTS ÉTRANGERS (IDE), POLITIQUES D’ATTRACTIVITÉ, EFFETS DE DIVERSION, MAROC, TUNISIE

Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique

This paper is a critical survey of the currency crisis literature. Theoretical and empirical analysis generally fail to anticipate currency crisis because of the complex nature of such crisis and because of the prevailing role of speculators. The main weakness of this research is its incapacity to integrate properly the market maker's behaviours, although determining the crisis launching. Ce travail consiste en une analyse critique de la littérature existante sur les indicateurs avancés des crises de change. Elle rend compte de l’impossibilité de prévoir les crises de change compte tenu du caractère complexe des crises spéculatives et du comportement des opérateurs. La principale limite des modèles actuels est leur incapacité à réellement appréhender le comportement des opérateurs de marché, seul susceptible pourtant de déclencher la crise.

Model of Financial Development: A cluster analysis

This article is a contribution to the analysis of financial development diversity in developing countries and lies within model of capitalism’s framework. By taking into account the degree of control of banking system and securities markets, our empirical analysis produces a three-group typology identifying an embryonic financial system, an intermediate financial system bank oriented and a financial system in maturity. Moreover, this typology cannot support the hypothesis of a model specific to emerging countries but a model for LDC countries and a model for developed countries.Financial development, growth, models of capitalism, factorial analysis, and cluster analysis.

Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique

Ce travail consiste en une analyse critique de la littérature existante sur les indicateurs avancés des crises de change. Elle rend compte de l’impossibilité de prévoir les crises de change compte tenu du caractère complexe des crises spéculatives et du comportement des opérateurs. La principale limite des modèles actuels est leur incapacité à réellement appréhender le comportement des opérateurs de marché, seul susceptible pourtant de déclencher la crise.This paper is a critical survey of the currency crisis literature. Theoretical and empirical analysis generally fail to anticipate currency crisis because of the complex nature of such crisis and because of the prevailing role of speculators. The main weakness of this research is its incapacity to integrate properly the market maker's behaviours, although determining the crisis launching

Trade relation between MERCOSUR, NAFTA, Andean community and UE15: An analysis in term of trade creation - trade deviation (In French)

This paper determines which gravity models are the best adapted to the study of the trade evolution of several economic areas and the behaviors heterogeneity of the countries that belong to these areas (fixed effect model; random effect model). Applied to the countries of UE15, NAFTA, MERCOSUR, Andean community and APEC, the retained model contains random bilateral effects and has proved to be the most suited to describe the specific bonds between different countries. It enables also to apprehend, in terms of trade creation and trade diversion, the trade relations between the countries of the reference areas and MERCOSUR in particular.Trade creation and trade deviation, Trade block Régional, Trade agreements, Gravity Models, Fixed effect model, Random effect model

Recent exports matter: export discoveries, FDI and Growth, an empirical assessment for MENA countries

Export diversification has become a priority goal for the development strategies of the MENA countries. In this paper, we aim at measuring the effects of exports’ diversification on growth in MENA countries. But we also try to assess the way new exports and FDI interact each others in the process of growth. Within the framework of an endogenous growth model, we claim that FDI can act as a complementary factor in the discovery process. The model is estimated by the system-GMM and we provide robust evidence that FDI do not necessarily have the same effect on growth according to the diversification level. We also show that while FDI have a positive and significant effect on the MENA countries’ growth, it is most probably rather linked to the direct effect on value added and employment than to the spillover effects of technological transfer.Export diversification, FDI, Growth, MENA, GMM system

Foreign Direct Investment: a comparative study of the attraction of Moroccan and Tunisian economies (In French)

The existing literature points to a series of determinants of FDI attraction such as the size of markets, the costs of labor, infrastructure, the educational level of the labor force, or policy reforms and political stability … However, potential trade-offs or complementarities between similar countries are rarely underscored as factors explaining the performance or the under-performance in attracting FDI. In this paper we try to determine if there is an inverse (positive) relationship between FDI flows in Tunisia and in Morocco. We test this hypothesis is tested in a VAR model (Vector Autogressive Regression) and we show that FDI in Tunisia attract, in an indirect way, the FDI in Morocco, probably by improving the climate of business in the region. But, meanwhile, Morocco undergoes a significant diversion of FDI in favour of Tunisia in the long run.Foreign direct investment (FDI) ; trade-off, attraction ; Morocco ; Tunisia

EU, its 10 new members and North Africa : polarization of trade and lack of hubs effects (In French)

This paper determines which are, among different type of gravity model, those best adapted to the study of the evolution of trade of several economic areas and of the heterogeneity of the behaviors of the countries constitutive of these zones (fixed effect model; random effect model; model with correction endogeneity biasis). Applied to the three blocks which are the EU, its 10 new members and North Africa, the model with random combined effects (country - partners ) and with correction of endogeneïty biasis the most adequate to apprehend the specific bonds between different countries and apprehend trade creation and trade diversion effects.Regional Integration, Trade creation, Trade deviation, Gravity model