EU, its 10 new members and North Africa : polarization of trade and lack of hubs effects (In French)

Abstract

This paper determines which are, among different type of gravity model, those best adapted to the study of the evolution of trade of several economic areas and of the heterogeneity of the behaviors of the countries constitutive of these zones (fixed effect model; random effect model; model with correction endogeneity biasis). Applied to the three blocks which are the EU, its 10 new members and North Africa, the model with random combined effects (country - partners ) and with correction of endogeneïty biasis the most adequate to apprehend the specific bonds between different countries and apprehend trade creation and trade diversion effects.Regional Integration, Trade creation, Trade deviation, Gravity model