UČINCI STRUKTURNIH REFORMI NA GOSPODARSKI RAST: DOKAZI IZ ODABRANIH ZEMALJA UNUTAR PROGRAMA KOJI PODRŽAVA MMF

This study investigates the effects of structural reforms in fiscal, financial, trade, and real sectors on economic growth for 56 countries within the IMF-Supported Program over the 2002-19 period. Using a novel data- base (IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements-MONA), it constructs newstructural reform indexes for each sector employing the Z-score approach. The present study highlights that all structural reforms except for real sec- tor reforms in all models, constructed based on the extended Cobb-Douglas production function, have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. The robustness of the models is confirmed by using two different structural reform indexes for each sector and two different estimators considering cross-sectional dependence. Empirical findings point to the structural reforms being potentially key factors that provide strong long-term growth performance for countries. Hence, along with the relevant traditional policies and sufficiently developed institutions, policymakers should extend the structural reforms to lift potential growth and provide lasting economic recovery.U radu se istražuju učinci strukturnih reformi u fiskalnom, financijskom, trgovinskom i realnom sektoru na gospodarski rast za 56 zemalja unutar programa koji podržava MMF, za razdoblje od 2002. do 2019. godine. Koristeći novu bazu podataka (MMF-ovo praćenje aranžmana fondova – MONA, engl. IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements), konstruiraju se novi indeksi strukturnih reformi za svaki sektor koristeći pristup Z-score-a. Ovaj rad ističe da sve strukturne reforme, osim reformi realnog sektora, u svim modelima konstruiranim na temelju proširene Cobb-Douglasove proizvodne funkcije, imaju pozitivan i statistički značajan utjecaj na gospodarski rast. Robusnost modela potvrđena je uporabom dva različita indeksa strukturnih reformi za svaki sektor i dva razli- čita procjenitelja uzimajući u obzir prosječnu ovisnost. Empirijski nalazi ukazuju na to da su struk- turne reforme potencijalno ključni čimbenici koji osiguravaju snažan dugoročni rast za zemlje. Stoga bi, uz relevantne tradicionalne politike i dovoljno (dostatno) razvijene institucije, kreatori politika trebali proširiti strukturne reforme kako bi podigli potencijalni rast i osigurali trajni gospodarski oporavak

POVEZANOST IZMEĐU NEIZVJESNOSTI I TOKOVA IZRAVNIH STRANIH ULAGANJA U ZEMLJAMA ČLANICAMA G20

The main objective of this study is to examine the link between global economic, political, and geopolitical uncertainties and FDI flows to G20 member countries over the 1996-2018 period. Unlike most of the previous studies, this study employs reasonable uncertainty indexes, namely, the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) for economic/political uncertainty rather than the volatility or election indicators. The study also uses the Geopolitical Risk index as a proxy for geopolitical uncertainty, and thereby it not only focuses on economic/ political uncertainty but also considers the geopolitical uncertainty to provide a more comprehensive picture of uncertainty. Findings obtained from the panel data analysis indicate that heightened uncertainty in the global economic/political and geopolitical environment deters FDI flows to G20 member countries. It is also found that there is a unilateral causality running from uncertainty to FDI inflows. Considering these empirical findings, policymakers in G20 economies should provide a stable economic/political and geopolitical environment to attach FDI inflows, which have a key role in stimulating economic growth and development.Glavni cilj ovog istraživanja je ispitati vezu između globalnih ekonomskih, političkih i geopolitičkih neizvjesnosti i tokova izravnih stranih ulaganja u zemljama članicama G20 u razdoblju od 1996. do 2018. godine. Za razliku od većine prethodnih istraživanja, ovo istraživanje koristi razumne indekse nesigurnosti, to jest, indeks nesigurnosti ekonomske politike (EPU) te indeks svjetske nesigurnosti (WUI) za ekonomsku/političku nesigurnost, umjesto pokazatelja volatilnosti ili izbora. Istraživanje se također koristi indeksom geopolitičkog rizika kao zamjenom za geopolitičku neizvjesnost, i stoga se ne usredotočuje samo na ekonomsku/političku neizvjesnost, već također uzima u obzir geopolitičku neizvjesnost kako bi se pružila sveobuhvatniju sliku neizvjesnosti. Nalazi dobiveni analizom panel podataka pokazuju da povećana neizvjesnost u globalnom ekonomskom/ političkom i geopolitičkom okruženju odvraća tokove izravnih stranih ulaganja u zemlje članice G20. Također je utvrđeno da postoji jednostrana uzročnost koja se proteže od neizvjesnosti do priljeva izravnih stranih ulaganja. Uzimajući u obzir ove empirijske nalaze, kreatori politika u gospodarstvima zemalja G20 trebali bi osigurati stabilno ekonomsko/političko i geopolitičko okruženje za privlačenje priljeva izravnih stranih ulaganja, koja imaju ključnu ulogu u poticanju gospodarskog rasta i razvoja

El Impacto de las Reformas Estructurales en Turquía: Evidencia de Modelos ARDL Lineales y No Lineales

This paper investigates the relationship between structural reforms and economic growth in Turkey during the 1990-2019 period. Employing a novel database (the MONA database), it constructs structural reform indexes for the fiscal, financial, real, and trade sectors with two different approaches (z-score and min-max). The study uses both the linear ARDL and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models to provide additional robust evidence of the response of economic growth to structural reforms. The findings indicate that financial, fiscal, real, and total structural reforms have positive and statistically significant effects on economic growth in Turkey, although the growth potential of trade structural reforms seems not to have been realized.Este trabajo investiga la relación entre las reformas estructurales y el crecimiento en Turquía para el periodo 1990-2019. Utilizando una nueva base de datos (MONA), se construyen índices de reformas fiscal, financiera, real y comercial. Se utilizan modelos ARDL lineales y no lineales que proveen evidencia robusta de la respuesta del crecimiento a las reformas. Se encuentra que todas las reformas, a excepción de la comercial, han afectado significativa y positivament

TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE CARİ İŞLEMLER AÇIĞININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: DÖNEMSEL VE YAPISAL KIRILMALI BİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ (1984Q1-2017Q4)

In this study, it is aimed to investigate the sustainability of the current account deficit level in Turkish economy, where the process of financially international expansion has accelerated until the 1980’s,  under the inter-period model developed by Husted (1992). In line with this purpose, sustainability level of the current account deficit in Turkish economy is examined periodically in a comparative perspective by using time series analysis methodology with structural breaks for the periods 1984:Q1-2001:Q4, 2002:Q1-2017:Q4, and 1984:Q1-2017:Q4. As a result of the study, it is determined that the current account deficit in Turkish economy is strongly sustainable in the period 1984:Q1-2001:Q4 while it is unsustainable or weakly sustainable in the periods 2017: Q4 and 1984:Q1-2017:Q4. It is also determined that the unsustainability of the current account deficit is at its highest level or the sustainability of the current account deficit in a weak form is at its lowest level in the period 2002:Q1-2017:Q4. These results indicate the necessity of the development and the treatment of the monetary and fiscal policy measures to remove the deficit between export revenues and import expenditures and reduce the current account deficit.Bu çalışmada, finansal açıdan dışa açılma sürecinin hız kazandığı 1980’lerden buyana cari işlemler açıklarıyla karşılaşan Türkiye ekonomisinde, cari işlemler açıklarının sürdürülebilirlik düzeyinin, Husted (1992) tarafından geliştirilen dönemlerarası model kapsamında ampirik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, Türkiye ekonomisinde cari işlemler açıklarının sürdürülebilirlik düzeyi, 1984:Q1-2001:Q4, 2002:Q1-2017:Q4 ve 1984:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemleri için yapısal kırılmaları içeren zaman serisi analizi metodolojisi kullanılarak dönemsel açıdan karşılaştırmalı bir bakış açısıyla incelenmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda, Türkiye ekonomisinde cari işlemler açıklarının 1984:Q1-2001:Q4 döneminde güçlü bir düzeyde sürdürülebilir olduğu belirlenirken, 2002:Q1-2017:Q4 ve 1984:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemlerinde ise sürdürülemez veya zayıf bir düzeyde sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde cari işlemler açıklarının sürdürülemezlik düzeyinin en fazla veya zayıf formdaki sürdürülebilirlik düzeyinin en az olduğu döneminin ise 2002:Q1-2017:Q4 dönemi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisinde politika yapıcıları tarafından ihracat gelirleri ile ithalat giderleri arasındaki farklılıkların giderilmesine ve cari işlemler açığının azaltılmasına yönelik para ve maliye politikası tedbirlerinin geliştirilip uygulanmasının gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir

Sex-dependent colonic microbiota modulation by hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) dietary fiber

Although many efforts have been made to characterize the functional properties of hazelnut constituents (mainly its oil, protein, and phenolics), those of its dietary fiber (DF) have not been elucidated yet. Here, we aimed to investigate the impact of DF of natural and roasted hazelnuts, and hazelnut skin on the colonic microbiota in vivo (C57BL/6J mouse models) by determining their composition through 16S rRNA sequencing and microbial short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) using gas chromatography. Our results revealed that hazelnut DF generally showed an acetogenic effect in male mice, whereas the same trend was not observed in the female counterparts. The 16S rRNA sequencing results showed that hazelnut DF, especially that of natural hazelnuts, increased the relative abundances of Lactobacillus-related OTUs that have probiotic potential. LEfSe analysis indicated that, for female mice, Lachnospiraceae, Prevotella, Ruminococcaceae, and Lactobacillus were found to be discriminators for DF of natural hazelnuts, roasted hazelnuts, hazelnut skin, and control, respectively, whereas Bacteroides, Lactobacillus, Prevotella, and Lactococcus were the discriminators for the male counterparts, respectively. This study clearly indicates that, although the roasting process slightly alters the functionalities, hazelnut DF favors beneficial microbes and stimulates beneficial microbial metabolites in the colon in a sex-dependent way, which could be a contributing factor to the health-promoting effects of hazelnuts. Furthermore, hazelnut skin, a byproduct of the hazelnut industry, was found to have potential to be utilized to produce functional DF targeting colonic health