Effect on life expectancy of temporal sequence in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure among 1·7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up: a retrospective cohort study using linked data

BACKGROUND: To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical-mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile). FINDINGS: Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0-65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased. INTERPRETATION: The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death. FUNDING: Health Data Research UK

Case-Control Study of Fetal Microchimerism and Breast Cancer

Prior pregnancy is known to protect against development of breast cancer. Recent studies have demonstrated that pregnancy has the capacity to establish small numbers of immunologically active fetal-derived cells in the mother, a phenomenon known as fetal microchimerism (FMc). We asked whether presence of FMc, routinely acquired during pregnancy, is a protective factor for breast cancer.DNA extracts from peripheral blood specimens were obtained from a population-based case-control study of risk factors for breast cancer in women 21 to 45 years old. Specimens were tested with quantitative PCR for presence and concentrations of male DNA presumed to derive from prior pregnancies with a male fetus. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated with consideration of multiple established reproductive and environmental risk factors for breast cancer. FMc results were generated on 99 parous women, 54 with primary invasive breast cancer and 45 general population controls. FMc prevalence was 56% (25/45) and 26% (14/54) in controls and cases, respectively. Women harboring FMc were less likely to have had breast cancer (OR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.11-0.83; p = 0.02, adjusting for age, number of children, birth of a son, history of miscarriage, and total DNA tested). In addition, FMc concentrations were higher in controls versus cases (p = 0.01). Median concentrations were 2 (0-78) and 0 (0-374) fetal genomes/10(6) maternal genomes in controls and cases, respectively.Results suggest that the enigma of why some parous women are not afforded protection from breast cancer by pregnancy might in part be explained by differences in FMc. Mechanistic studies of FMc-derived protection against breast cancer are warranted

HIV Incidence and Risk Factors for Acquisition in HIV Discordant Couples in Masaka, Uganda: An HIV Vaccine Preparedness Study

To determine the incidence of and risk factors for HIV acquisition in a cohort of HIV-uninfected partners from HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda, and to establish its suitability for HIV vaccine trials.HIV-uninfected adults living in HIV discordant couple relationships were enrolled and followed for 2 years. Interviews, medical investigations, HIV counseling and testing, syphilis and urine pregnancy (women) tests were performed at quarterly visits. Sexual risk behaviour data were collected every 6 months.495 participants were enrolled, of whom 34 seroconverted during 786.6 person-years of observation (PYO). The overall HIV incidence rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4.3 [3.1-6]; and 4.3 [2.8-6.4] and 4.4 [2.5-8] per 100 PYO in men and women respectively. Independent baseline predictors for HIV acquisition were young age [18-24 (aRR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.6-10.8) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-5.8) years]; alcohol use (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1-6); and reported genital discharge (aRR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6-7.2) in the past year. Condom use frequency in the year preceding enrolment was predictive of a reduced risk of HIV acquisition [sometimes (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.8); always (aRR = 0.1, 95% CI 0.02-0.9)]. In the follow-up risk analysis, young age [18-24 (aRR = 6.2, 95% CI 2.2-17.3) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.0) years], reported genital discharge (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1-5.5), serological syphilis (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3-7.7) and the partner being ART naïve (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.4-16.0) were independently associated with HIV acquisition. There were no seroconversions among participants who reported consistent condom use during the study.The study has identified important risk factors for HIV acquisition among HIV discordant couples. HIV-uninfected partners in discordant couples may be a suitable population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, recent confirmation that ART reduces heterosexual HIV transmission may make it unfeasible to conduct HIV prevention trials in this population

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Change in depressive symptoms over higher education and professional establishment - a longitudinal investigation in a national cohort of Swedish nursing students

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There are indications of a high prevalence of psychological distress among students in higher education and also that distress increases over the course of study. However, not all studies on student distress controlled for sociodemographic differences and few followed development of distress over an extended period through professional establishment. We investigated if there is an independent effect of time in education and the first two years in the profession on depressive symptoms and mapped change over the period in a national cohort of students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data came from LANE, a nation-wide longitudinal panel survey of Swedish nursing students (N = 1700) who responded to annual questionnaires over five years from 2002 to 2007. Depressive symptoms were measured by the Major Depression Inventory and change over time analysed in a linear mixed effects model for repeated measures.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was a significant change in level of depressive symptoms over time: an increase from the first to later years in education and a decrease to levels similar to baseline after graduation and a year in the profession. The change in symptoms remained significant after adjustment for sociodemographic factors (p < 0.01). Symptom levels differed due to age, gender, household composition and prior nurse assistant training but change over time was similar in all groups. The correlation among the repeated measures, representing within individual correlation over time, varied between 0.44-0.60.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The findings indicate an independent but transitional effect of time in education and professional establishment on depressive symptoms. We think heightened distress over education abates as the graduate accommodates to the profession. Nevertheless, within education, the differences in depressive symptoms associated to demographic factors can help identify student groups more vulnerable to distress. Also, as individual differences in distress seem to persist over time, perhaps students highly distressed in the beginning of education can be helped by awareness among educators of the elevated levels of distress in late education.</p

Bone Mineral Density in HIV-Negative Men Participating in a Tenofovir Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Randomized Clinical Trial in San Francisco

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) trials are evaluating regimens containing tenofovir-disoproxil fumarate (TDF) for HIV prevention. We determined the baseline prevalence of low bone mineral density (BMD) and the effect of TDF on BMD in men who have sex with men (MSM) in a PrEP trial in San Francisco.We evaluated 1) the prevalence of low BMD using Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) in a baseline cohort of 210 HIV-uninfected MSM who screened for a randomized clinical trial of daily TDF vs. placebo, and 2) the effects of TDF on BMD in a longitudinal cohort of 184 enrolled men. Half began study drug after a 9-month delay to evaluate changes in risk behavior associated with pill-use. At baseline, 20 participants (10%) had low BMD (Z score≤-2.0 at the L2-L4 spine, total hip, or femoral neck). Low BMD was associated with amphetamine (OR = 5.86, 95% CI 1.70-20.20) and inhalant (OR = 4.57, 95% CI 1.32-15.81) use; men taking multivitamins, calcium, or vitamin D were less likely to have low BMD at baseline (OR = 0.26, 95% CI 0.10-0.71). In the longitudinal analysis, there was a 1.1% net decrease in mean BMD in the TDF vs. the pre-treatment/placebo group at the femoral neck (95% CI 0.4-1.9%), 0.8% net decline at the total hip (95% CI 0.3-1.3%), and 0.7% at the L2-L4 spine (95% CI -0.1-1.5%). At 24 months, 13% vs. 6% of participants experienced >5% BMD loss at the femoral neck in the TDF vs. placebo groups (p = 0.13).Ten percent of HIV-negative MSM had low BMD at baseline. TDF use resulted in a small but statistically significant decline in BMD at the total hip and femoral neck. Larger studies with longer follow-up are needed to determine the trajectory of BMD changes and any association with clinical fractures.ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00131677

FOXO Regulates Organ-Specific Phenotypic Plasticity In Drosophila

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability for a single genotype to generate different phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, is biologically ubiquitous, and yet almost nothing is known of the developmental mechanisms that regulate the extent of a plastic response. In particular, it is unclear why some traits or individuals are highly sensitive to an environmental variable while other traits or individuals are less so. Here we elucidate the developmental mechanisms that regulate the expression of a particularly important form of phenotypic plasticity: the effect of developmental nutrition on organ size. In all animals, developmental nutrition is signaled to growing organs via the insulin-signaling pathway. Drosophila organs differ in their size response to developmental nutrition and this reflects differences in organ-specific insulin-sensitivity. We show that this variation in insulin-sensitivity is regulated at the level of the forkhead transcription factor FOXO, a negative growth regulator that is activated when nutrition and insulin signaling are low. Individual organs appear to attenuate growth suppression in response to low nutrition through an organ-specific reduction in FOXO expression, thereby reducing their nutritional plasticity. We show that FOXO expression is necessary to maintain organ-specific differences in nutritional-plasticity and insulin-sensitivity, while organ-autonomous changes in FOXO expression are sufficient to autonomously alter an organ's nutritional-plasticity and insulin-sensitivity. These data identify a gene (FOXO) that modulates a plastic response through variation in its expression. FOXO is recognized as a key player in the response of size, immunity, and longevity to changes in developmental nutrition, stress, and oxygen levels. FOXO may therefore act as a more general regulator of plasticity. These data indicate that the extent of phenotypic plasticity may be modified by changes in the expression of genes involved in signaling environmental information to developmental processes

Is there a space–time continuum in olfaction?

The coding of olfactory stimuli across a wide range of organisms may rely on fundamentally similar mechanisms in which a complement of specific odorant receptors on olfactory sensory neurons respond differentially to airborne chemicals to initiate the process by which specific odors are perceived. The question that we address in this review is the role of specific neurons in mediating this sensory system—an identity code—relative to the role that temporally specific responses across many neurons play in producing an olfactory perception—a temporal code. While information coded in specific neurons may be converted into a temporal code, it is also possible that temporal codes exist in the absence of response specificity for any particular neuron or subset of neurons. We review the data supporting these ideas, and we discuss the research perspectives that could help to reveal the mechanisms by which odorants become perceptions