The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Emerging technologies for the management of Type 1 diabetes in pregnancy

Purpose of Review: The purpose of the study is to discuss emerging technologies available in the management of type 1 diabetes in pregnancy. Recent Findings: The latest evidence suggests that continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) should be offered to all women on intensive insulin therapy in early pregnancy. Studies have additionally demonstrated the ability of CGM to help gain insight into specific glucose profiles as they relate to glycaemic targets and pregnancy outcomes. Despite new studies comparing insulin pump therapy to multiple daily injections, its effectiveness in improving glucose and pregnancy outcomes remains unclear. Sensor-integrated insulin delivery (also called artificial pancreas or closed-loop insulin delivery) in pregnancy has been demonstrated to improve time in target and performs well despite the changing insulin demands of pregnancy. Summary: Emerging technologies show promise in the management of type 1 diabetes in pregnancy; however, research must continue to keep up as technology advances. Further research is needed to clarify the role technology can play in optimising glucose control before and during pregnancy as well as to understand which women are candidates for sensor-integrated insulin delivery

Resolving confusions about jarrah dieback - don’t forget the plants

The name jarrah dieback has been used for two different disorders, leading to considerable confusion. It was coined in the 1940s to describe the sudden death of groups of jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) trees in south western Western Australia, which occurred on poorly drained sites, following exceptionally heavy rainfall. In the 1960s these sites were shown to be infested by Phytophthora cinnamomi and jarrah deaths were attributed to it, even though it was only isolated from 5 % of sampled trees. Also the definition of jarrah dieback was expanded to include deaths of many other plants on infested sites, from which P. cinnamomi was more readily isolated. Jarrah trees die from severe water deficiency, indicating problems with water conduction through roots. Xylem vessel diameters vary along roots, being narrow at the root collar, while distally they are larger, providing water storage. Jarrah transpires vigorously during summer, accessing water at depth on sites with deep soil, but being more dependent on internally stored water when root systems are shallower. Following waterlogging, sapwood vessels become blocked with tyloses, reducing both conductivity and potential water storage; such trees may have insufficient water reserves for summer survival. In jarrah P. cinnamomi is unlikely to cause water deficiency because sapwood invasion is rapidly contained in healthy roots. Recent investigations into P. cinnamomi invasion and host responses in other plants show that it can potentially cause a vascular wilt in Banksia spp. and chronic, symptomless infections in herbaceous plants. Susceptibility to waterlogging damage, and/or mortality resulting from infection by P. cinnamomi can only be clarified by detailed knowledge of the hosts and their vulnerabilities. This is essential for making diagnoses, devising management strategies, and avoiding the confusions of the past

Childhood Predictors of Desistance and Level of Persistence in Offending in Early Onset Offenders

Childhood predictors of adolescent offending careers were studied in 310 boys from the longitudinal Pittsburgh Youth Study who started offending prior to age 12. Three main groups were distinguished: serious persisters (n = 95), moderately serious persisters (n = 117), desisters (n = 63), and an intermittent group (n = 35). Group membership was predicted using risk and promotive factors measured in childhood. Serious and moderately serious persisters could be distinguished well from desisters (29.2% and 32.3% explained variance). Distinction between the two persister groups proved somewhat more difficult (20.9% explained variance). More serious persisters than desisters showed disruptive behavior, while moderately serious persisters fell in between. Further, more moderately serious persisters were marked by social disadvantage. Family involvement, small family and positive peer relationships were promotive of desistance. Concluding, early onset offenders show considerable heterogeneity in their adolescent offending careers which seem to some extent to be predicted by different sets of risk and promotive factors

Sustained Effects of Incredible Years as a Preventive Intervention in Preschool Children with Conduct Problems

The present study evaluated preventive effects of the Incredible Years program for parents of preschool children who were at risk for a chronic pattern of conduct problems, in the Netherlands. In a matched control design, 72 parents of children with conduct problems received the Incredible Years program. These families (intervention group) were compared with 72 families who received care as usual (control group). Two years after termination of the intervention, it appeared that observed and selfrated parenting skills were significantly improved in the intervention group. Likewise, in this group, observed child conduct problems showed sustained intervention effects. The decrease in observed critical parenting mediated the decrease in observed child conduct problems over time. In addition, it appeared that parental influence increased over time

Intergenerational Transmission of Multiple Problem Behaviors: Prospective Relationships between Mothers and Daughters

Much of the research examining intergenerational continuity of problems from mother to offspring has focused on homotypic continuity (e.g., depression), despite the fact that different types of mental health problems tend to cluster in both adults and children. It remains unclear whether mothers with multiple mental health problems compared to mothers with fewer or no problems are more likely to have daughters with multiple mental health problems during middle childhood (ages 7 to 11). Six waves of maternal and child data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 2,451) were used to examine the specificity of effects of maternal psychopathology on child adjustment. Child multiple mental health problems comprised disruptive behavior, ADHD symptoms, depressed mood, anxiety symptoms and somatic complaints, while maternal multiple mental health problems consisted of depression, prior conduct problems and somatic complaints. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) was used to examine the prospective relationships between mother’s single and multiple mental health problems and their daughter’s single and multiple mental health problems across the elementary school-aged period (ages 7–11 years). The results show that multiple mental health problems in the mothers predicted multiple mental health problems in the daughters even when earlier mental health problem of the daughters, demographic factors, and childrearing practices were controlled. Maternal low parental warmth and harsh punishment independently contributed to the prediction of multiple mental health problems in their daughter, but mediation analyses showed that the contribution of parenting behaviors to the explanation of girls’ mental health problems was small

Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: considerations for serosurvey design

Background The CYD-TDV vaccine was unusual in that the recommended target population for vaccination was originally defined not only by age, but also by transmission setting as defined by seroprevalence. WHO originally recommended countries consider vaccination against dengue with CYD-TDV vaccine in geographic settings only where prior infection with any dengue serotype, as measured by seroprevalence, was >170% in the target age group. Vaccine was not recommended in settings where seroprevalence was <50%. Test-and-vaccinate strategies suggested following new analysis by Sanofi will still require age-stratified seroprevalence surveys to optimise age-group targeting. Here we address considerations for serosurvey design in the context of vaccination program planning. Methods To explore how the design of seroprevalence surveys affects estimates of transmission intensity, 100 age-specific seroprevalence surveys were simulated using a beta-binomial distribution and a simple catalytic model for different combinations of age-range, survey size, transmission setting, and test sensitivity/specificity. We then used a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the force of infection from each simulated dataset. Results Sampling from a wide age-range led to more accurate estimates than merely increasing sample size in a narrow age-range. This finding was consistent across all transmission settings. The optimum test sensitivity and specificity given an imperfect test differed by setting with high sensitivity being important in high transmission settings and high specificity important in low transmission settings. Conclusions When assessing vaccination suitability by seroprevalence surveys, countries should ensure an appropriate age-range is sampled, considering epidemiological evidence about the local burden of disease