Modeling the Impact of Tuberculosis Control Strategies in Highly Endemic Overcrowded Prisons

International audienceBACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) in prisons is a major health problem in countries of high and intermediate TB endemicity such as Brazil. For operational reasons, TB control strategies in prisons cannot be compared through population based intervention studies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A mathematical model is proposed to simulate the TB dynamics in prison and evaluate the potential impact on active TB prevalence of several intervention strategies. The TB dynamics with the ongoing program was simulated over a 10 year period in a Rio de Janeiro prison (TB prevalence 4.6 %). Then, a simulation of the DOTS strategy reaching the objective of 70 % of bacteriologically-positive cases detected and 85 % of detected cases cured was performed; this strategy reduced only to 2.8% the average predicted TB prevalence after 5 years. Adding TB detection at entry point to DOTS strategy had no major effect on the predicted active TB prevalence. But, adding further a yearly X-ray mass screening of inmates reduced the predicted active TB prevalence below 1%. Furthermore, according to this model, after applying this strategy during 2 years (three annual screenings), the TB burden would be reduced and the active TB prevalence could be kept at a low level by associating X-ray screening at entry point and DOTS. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have shown that X-ray mass screenings should be considered to control TB in highly endemic prison. Prisons with different levels of TB prevalence could be examined thanks to this model which provides a rational tool for public health deciders

Of cattle, sand flies and men : a systematic review of risk factor analyses for South Asian visceral leishmaniasis and implications for elimination

Background: Studies performed over the past decade have identified fairly consistent epidemiological patterns of risk factors for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent. Methods and Principal Findings: To inform the current regional VL elimination effort and identify key gaps in knowledge, we performed a systematic review of the literature, with a special emphasis on data regarding the role of cattle because primary risk factor studies have yielded apparently contradictory results. Because humans form the sole infection reservoir, clustering of kala-azar cases is a prominent epidemiological feature, both at the household level and on a larger scale. Subclinical infection also tends to show clustering around kala-azar cases. Within villages, areas become saturated over a period of several years; kala-azar incidence then decreases while neighboring areas see increases. More recently, post kalaazar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) cases have followed kala-azar peaks. Mud walls, palpable dampness in houses, and peridomestic vegetation may increase infection risk through enhanced density and prolonged survival of the sand fly vector. Bed net use, sleeping on a cot and indoor residual spraying are generally associated with decreased risk. Poor micronutrient status increases the risk of progression to kala-azar. The presence of cattle is associated with increased risk in some studies and decreased risk in others, reflecting the complexity of the effect of bovines on sand fly abundance, aggregation, feeding behavior and leishmanial infection rates. Poverty is an overarching theme, interacting with individual risk factors on multiple levels. Conclusions: Carefully designed demonstration projects, taking into account the complex web of interconnected risk factors, are needed to provide direct proof of principle for elimination and to identify the most effective maintenance activities to prevent a rapid resurgence when interventions are scaled back. More effective, short-course treatment regimens for PKDL are urgently needed to enable the elimination initiative to succeed

Comparative Analysis of Dengue and Zika Outbreaks Reveals Differences by Setting and Virus.

The pacific islands of Micronesia have experienced several outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases over the past decade. In outbreaks on small islands, the susceptible population is usually well defined, and there is no co-circulation of pathogens. Because of this, analysing such outbreaks can be useful for understanding the transmission dynamics of the pathogens involved, and particularly so for yet understudied pathogens such as Zika virus. Here, we compared three outbreaks of dengue and Zika virus in two different island settings in Micronesia, the Yap Main Islands and Fais, using a mathematical model of transmission dynamics and making full use of commonalities in disease and setting between the outbreaks. We found that the estimated reproduction numbers for Zika and dengue were similar when considered in the same setting, but that, conversely, reproduction number for the same disease can vary considerably by setting. On the Yap Main Islands, we estimated a reproduction number of 8.0-16 (95% Credible Interval (CI)) for the dengue outbreak and 4.8-14 (95% CI) for the Zika outbreak, whereas for the dengue outbreak on Fais our estimate was 28-102 (95% CI). We further found that the proportion of cases of Zika reported was smaller (95% CI 1.4%-1.9%) than that of dengue (95% CI: 47%-61%). We confirmed these results in extensive sensitivity analysis. They suggest that models for dengue transmission can be useful for estimating the predicted dynamics of Zika transmission, but care must be taken when extrapolating findings from one setting to another

An Anaerobic-Type α-Ketoglutarate Ferredoxin Oxidoreductase Completes the Oxidative Tricarboxylic Acid Cycle of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Aerobic organisms have a tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle that is functionally distinct from those found in anaerobic organisms. Previous reports indicate that the aerobic pathogen Mycobacterium tuberculosis lacks detectable α-ketoglutarate (KG) dehydrogenase activity and drives a variant TCA cycle in which succinyl-CoA is replaced by succinic semialdehyde. Here, we show that M. tuberculosis expresses a CoA-dependent KG dehydrogenase activity, albeit one that is typically found in anaerobic bacteria. Unlike most enzymes of this family, the M. tuberculosis KG: ferredoxin oxidoreductase (KOR) is extremely stable under aerobic conditions. This activity is absent in a mutant strain deleted for genes encoding a previously uncharacterized oxidoreductase, and this strain is impaired for aerobic growth in the absence of sufficient amounts of CO2. Interestingly, inhibition of the glyoxylate shunt or exclusion of exogenous fatty acids alleviates this growth defect, indicating the presence of an alternate pathway that operates in the absence of β-oxidation. Simultaneous disruption of KOR and the first enzyme of the succinic semialdehyde pathway (KG decarboxylase; KGD) results in strict dependence upon the glyoxylate shunt for growth, demonstrating that KG decarboxylase is also functional in M. tuberculosis intermediary metabolism. These observations demonstrate that unlike most organisms M. tuberculosis utilizes two distinct TCA pathways from KG, one that functions concurrently with β-oxidation (KOR-dependent), and one that functions in the absence of β-oxidation (KGD-dependent). As these pathways are regulated by metabolic cues, we predict that their differential utilization provides an advantage for growth in different environments within the host

CSR, co-optation and resistance: the emergence of new agnostic relations between business and civil society

This article examines the theoretical implications of the changing relationships between NGOs and businesses that have emerged as a response to the evolving agenda around CSR and sustainable development. In particular, it focuses upon examining whether greater engagement from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in this area reflects a process of appropriation and co-optation of protest by the business community. To examine this process, the article considers two forms of appropriation—appropriation of language and appropriation via participation—as a basis for discussion. While co-optation pressures are identified within both areas, the article argues that co-optation is identified almost as an inevitable outcome of engagement without significant consideration of the ability of movements to identify and respond to these processes. In identifying an alternative approach, the article utilises Mouffe’s framework of agonistic pluralism. Mouffe’s framework, it is argued, provides an understanding of the way in which agonistic relationships are emerging between NGOs and businesses while highlighting the continuance of conflict between parties struggling to influence the contested interpretations of responsible business

Man Bites Mosquito: Understanding the Contribution of Human Movement to Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics

In metropolitan areas people travel frequently and extensively but often in highly structured commuting patterns. We investigate the role of this type of human movement in the epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens such as dengue. Analysis is based on a metapopulation model where mobile humans connect static mosquito subpopulations. We find that, due to frequency dependent biting, infection incidence in the human and mosquito populations is almost independent of the duration of contact. If the mosquito population is not uniformly distributed between patches the transmission potential of the pathogen at the metapopulation level, as summarized by the basic reproductive number, is determined by the size of the largest subpopulation and reduced by stronger connectivity. Global extinction of the pathogen is less likely when increased human movement enhances the rescue effect but, in contrast to classical theory, it is not minimized at an intermediate level of connectivity. We conclude that hubs and reservoirs of infection can be places people visit frequently but briefly and the relative importance of human and mosquito populations in maintaining the pathogen depends on the distribution of the mosquito population and the variability in human travel patterns. These results offer an insight in to the paradoxical observation of resurgent urban vector-borne disease despite increased investment in vector control and suggest that successful public health intervention may require a dual approach. Prospective studies can be used to identify areas with large mosquito populations that are also visited by a large fraction of the human population. Retrospective studies can be used to map recent movements of infected people, pinpointing the mosquito subpopulation from which they acquired the infection and others to which they may have transmitted it

Drug coverage in treatment of malaria and the consequences for resistance evolution - evidence from the use of sulphadoxine/pyrimethamine

BACKGROUND\ud \ud It is argued that, the efficacy of anti-malarials could be prolonged through policy-mediated reductions in drug pressure, but gathering evidence of the relationship between policy, treatment practice, drug pressure and the evolution of resistance in the field is challenging. Mathematical models indicate that drug coverage is the primary determinant of drug pressure and the driving force behind the evolution of drug resistance. These models show that where the basis of resistance is multigenic, the effects of selection can be moderated by high recombination rates, which disrupt the associations between co-selected resistance genes.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud To test these predictions, dhfr and dhps frequency changes were measured during 2000-2001 while SP was the second-line treatment and contrasted these with changes during 2001-2002 when SP was used for first-line therapy. Annual cross sectional community surveys carried out before, during and after the policy switch in 2001 were used to collect samples. Genetic analysis of SP resistance genes was carried out on 4,950 Plasmodium falciparum infections and the selection pressure under the two policies compared.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud The influence of policy on the parasite reservoir was profound. The frequency of dhfr and dhps resistance alleles did not change significantly while SP was the recommended second-line treatment, but highly significant changes occurred during the subsequent year after the switch to first line SP. The frequency of the triple mutant dhfr (N51I,C59R,S108N) allele (conferring pyrimethamine resistance) increased by 37% - 63% and the frequency of the double A437G, K540E mutant dhps allele (conferring sulphadoxine resistance) increased 200%-300%. A strong association between these unlinked alleles also emerged, confirming that they are co-selected by SP.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud The national policy change brought about a shift in treatment practice and the resulting increase in coverage had a substantial impact on drug pressure. The selection applied by first-line use is strong enough to overcome recombination pressure and create significant linkage disequilibrium between the unlinked genetic determinants of pyrimethamine and sulphadoxine resistance, showing that recombination is no barrier to the emergence of resistance to combination treatments when they are used as the first-line malaria therapy

Association between Selected Oral Pathogens and Gastric Precancerous Lesions

We examined whether colonization of selected oral pathogens is associated with gastric precancerous lesions in a cross-sectional study. A total of 119 participants were included, of which 37 were cases of chronic atrophic gastritis, intestinal metaplasia, or dysplasia. An oral examination was performed to measure periodontal indices. Plaque and saliva samples were tested with real-time quantitative PCR for DNA levels of pathogens related to periodontal disease (Porphyromonas gingivalis, Tannerella forsythensis, Treponema denticola, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans) and dental caries (Streptococcus mutans and S. sobrinus). There were no consistent associations between DNA levels of selected bacterial species and gastric precancerous lesions, although an elevated but non-significant odds ratio (OR) for gastric precancerous lesions was observed in relation to increasing colonization of A. actinomycetemcomitans (OR = 1.36 for one standard deviation increase, 95% Confidence Interval = 0.87–2.12), P. gingivalis (OR = 1.12, 0.67–1.88) and T. denticola (OR = 1.34, 0.83–2.12) measured in plaque. To assess the influence of specific long-term infection, stratified analyses by levels of periodontal indices were conducted. A. actinomycetemcomitans was significantly associated with gastric precancerous lesions (OR = 2.51, 1.13–5.56) among those with ≥ median of percent tooth sites with PD≥3 mm, compared with no association among those below the median (OR = 0.86, 0.43–1.72). A significantly stronger relationship was observed between the cumulative bacterial burden score of periodontal disease-related pathogens and gastric precancerous lesions among those with higher versus lower levels of periodontal disease indices (p-values for interactions: 0.03–0.06). Among individuals with periodontal disease, high levels of colonization of periodontal pathogens are associated with an increased risk of gastric precancerous lesions

Central Role of the Holliday Junction Helicase RuvAB in vlsE Recombination and Infectivity of Borrelia burgdorferi

Antigenic variation plays a vital role in the pathogenesis of many infectious bacteria and protozoa including Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease. VlsE, a 35 kDa surface-exposed lipoprotein, undergoes antigenic variation during B. burgdorferi infection of mammalian hosts, and is believed to be a critical mechanism by which the spirochetes evade immune clearance. Random, segmental recombination between the expressed vlsE gene and adjacent vls silent cassettes generates a large number of different VlsE variants within the infected host. Although the occurrence and importance of vlsE sequence variation is well established, little is known about the biological mechanism of vlsE recombination. To identify factors important in antigenic variation and vlsE recombination, we screened transposon mutants of genes known to be involved in DNA recombination and repair for their effects on infectivity and vlsE recombination. Several mutants, including those in BB0023 (ruvA), BB0022 (ruvB), BB0797 (mutS), and BB0098 (mutS-II), showed reduced infectivity in immunocompetent C3H/HeN mice. Mutants in ruvA and ruvB exhibited greatly reduced rates of vlsE recombination in C3H/HeN mice, as determined by restriction fragment polymorphism (RFLP) screening and DNA sequence analysis. In severe combined immunodeficiency (C3H/scid) mice, the ruvA mutant retained full infectivity; however, all recovered clones retained the ‘parental’ vlsE sequence, consistent with low rates of vlsE recombination. These results suggest that the reduced infectivity of ruvA and ruvB mutants is the result of ineffective vlsE recombination and underscores the important role that vlsE recombination plays in immune evasion. Based on functional studies in other organisms, the RuvAB complex of B. burgdorferi may promote branch migration of Holliday junctions during vlsE recombination. Our findings are consistent with those in the accompanying article by Dresser et al., and together these studies provide the first examples of trans-acting factors involved in vlsE recombination