Global solar irradiation prediction using a multi-gene genetic programming approach

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from AIP Publishing via the DOI in this record.In this paper, a nonlinear symbolic regression technique using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) is applied for a data-driven modelling between the dependent and the independent variables. The technique is applied for modelling the measured global solar irradiation and validated through numerical simulations. The proposed modelling technique shows improved results over the fuzzy logic and artificial neural network (ANN) based approaches as attempted by contemporary researchers. The method proposed here results in nonlinear analytical expressions, unlike those with neural networks which is essentially a black box modelling approach. This additional flexibility is an advantage from the modelling perspective and helps to discern the important variables which affect the prediction. Due to the evolutionary nature of the algorithm, it is able to get out of local minima and converge to a global optimum unlike the back-propagation (BP) algorithm used for training neural networks. This results in a better percentage fit than the ones obtained using neural networks by contemporary researchers. Also a hold-out cross validation is done on the obtained genetic programming (GP) results which show that the results generalize well to new data and do not over-fit the training samples. The multi-gene GP results are compared with those, obtained using its single-gene version and also the same with four classical regression models in order to show the effectiveness of the adopted approach

Intelligent Market-Making in Artificial Financial Markets

This thesis describes and evaluates a market-making algorithm for setting prices in financial markets with asymmetric information, and analyzes the properties of artificial markets in which the algorithm is used. The core of our algorithm is a technique for maintaining an online probability density estimate of the underlying value of a stock. Previous theoretical work on market-making has led to price-setting equations for which solutions cannot be achieved in practice, whereas empirical work on algorithms for market-making has focused on sets of heuristics and rules that lack theoretical justification. The algorithm presented in this thesis is theoretically justified by results in finance, and at the same time flexible enough to be easily extended by incorporating modules for dealing with considerations like portfolio risk and competition from other market-makers. We analyze the performance of our algorithm experimentally in artificial markets with different parameter settings and find that many reasonable real-world properties emerge. For example, the spread increases in response to uncertainty about the true value of a stock, average spreads tend to be higher in more volatile markets, and market-makers with lower average spreads perform better in environments with multiple competitive market-makers. In addition, the time series data generated by simple markets populated with market-makers using our algorithm replicate properties of real-world financial time series, such as volatility clustering and the fat-tailed nature of return distributions, without the need to specify explicit models for opinion propagation and herd behavior in the trading crowd

Bacteria in cancer therapy: a novel experimental strategy

Resistance to conventional anticancer therapies in patients with advanced solid tumors has prompted the need of alternative cancer therapies. Moreover, the success of novel cancer therapies depends on their selectivity for cancer cells with limited toxicity to normal tissues. Several decades after Coley's work a variety of natural and genetically modified non-pathogenic bacterial species are being explored as potential antitumor agents, either to provide direct tumoricidal effects or to deliver tumoricidal molecules. Live, attenuated or genetically modified non-pathogenic bacterial species are capable of multiplying selectively in tumors and inhibiting their growth. Due to their selectivity for tumor tissues, these bacteria and their spores also serve as ideal vectors for delivering therapeutic proteins to tumors. Bacterial toxins too have emerged as promising cancer treatment strategy. The most potential and promising strategy is bacteria based gene-directed enzyme prodrug therapy. Although it has shown successful results in vivo yet further investigation about the targeting mechanisms of the bacteria are required to make it a complete therapeutic approach in cancer treatment

Asymmetric thermodynamic structure of monsoon depression revealed in microwave satellite data

The central parts of India receive 80-90% of rainfall during the monsoon season (June-September). A major portion of rainfall occurring over these parts is associated with monsoon depressions moving across the area

Preface

Preface - The second International Conference on Mathematical Modeling in Physical Sciences (IC-MSQUARE) took place at Prague, Czech Republic, from Sunday 1 September to Thursday 5 September 2013

Chemical and environmental vector control as a contribution to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent: cluster randomized controlled trials in Bangladesh, India and Nepal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Bangladesh, India and Nepal are working towards the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) by 2015. In 2005 the World Health Organization/Training in Tropical Diseases launched an implementation research programme to support integrated vector management for the elimination of VL from Bangladesh, India and Nepal. The programme is conducted in different phases, from proof-of-concept to scaling up intervention. This study was designed in order to evaluate the efficacy of the three different interventions for VL vector management: indoor residual spraying (IRS); long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN); and environmental modification (EVM) through plastering of walls with lime or mud.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a cluster randomized controlled trial we compared three vector control interventions with a control arm in 96 clusters (hamlets or neighbourhoods) in each of the 4 study sites: Bangladesh (one), India (one) and Nepal (two). In each site four villages with high reported VL incidences were included. In each village six clusters and in each cluster five households were randomly selected for sand fly collection on two consecutive nights. Control and intervention clusters were matched with average pre-intervention vector densities.</p> <p>In each site six clusters were randomly assigned to each of the following interventions: indoor residual spraying (IRS); long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN); environmental management (EVM) or control. All the houses (50-100) in each intervention cluster underwent the intervention measures. A reduction of intra-domestic sand fly densities measured in the study households by overnight US Centres for Disease Prevention and Control light trap captures (that is the number of sand flies per trap per night) was the main outcome measure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>IRS, and to a lesser extent EVM and LLINs, significantly reduced sand fly densities for at least 5 months in the study households irrespective of type of walls or whether or not people shared their house with cattle. IRS was effective in all sites but LLINs were only effective in Bangladesh and India. Mud plastering did not reduce sand fly density (Bangladesh study); lime plastering in India and one Nepali site, resulted in a significant reduction of sand fly density but not in the second Nepali site.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Sand fly control can contribute to the regional VL elimination programme; IRS should be strengthened in India and Nepal but in Bangladesh, where vector control has largely been abandoned during the last decades, the insecticide treatment of existing bed nets (coverage above 90% in VL endemic districts) could bring about an immediate reduction of vector populations; operational research to inform policy makers about the efficacious options for VL vector control and programme performance should be strengthened in the three countries.</p

Effect of Village-wide Use of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets on Visceral Leishmaniasis Vectors in India and Nepal: A Cluster Randomized Trial

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a vector-borne disease causing at least 60,000 deaths each year amongst an estimated half million cases, and until recently there have been no significant initiatives to reduce this burden. However, in 2005, the governments of India, Bangladesh and Nepal signed a memorandum of understanding at the World Health Assembly in Geneva for the elimination of the disease by 2015. In the absence of an effective vaccine, the program will rely on the active detection and prompt treatment of cases throughout the endemic region, combined with a recurrent indoor residual spraying (IRS) of all villages at risk. Vector control programs based on IRS are notorious for failing to maintain comprehensive spray coverage over time owing to logistical problems and lack of compliance by householders. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LNs) have been postulated as an alternative or complement to IRS. Here we describe how comprehensive coverage of LN in trial communities reduced the indoor density of sand flies by 25% compared to communities without LNs. This provides an indication that LNs could be usefully deployed as a component of the VL control program in the Indian subcontinent

Backbone and side-chain 1H, 15N and 13C resonance assignments of S18Y mutant of ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1

Ubiquitin carboxy-terminal hydrolase L1 (UCH-L1), also known as PGP9.5, is a protein of 223 amino acids. Although it was originally characterized as a deubiquitinating enzyme, recent studies indicate that it also functions as a ubiquitin (Ub) ligase and a mono-Ub stabilizer. It is highly abundant in brain, constituting up to 2% of total brain proteins. Down-regulation and extensive oxidative modification of UCH-L1 have been observed in the brains of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients. Mutations in the UCH-L1 gene have been reported to be linked to Parkinson’s disease, in particular, the I93 M variant is associated with a higher susceptibility of PD in contrast to a higher protection against PD for the S18Y variant. Hence, the structure of UCH-L1 and the underlying effects of disease associated mutations on the structure and function of UCH-L1 are of considerable interest. Here, we report the NMR spectral assignments of the S18Y human UCH-L1 mutant with the aim to obtain better understanding about the risk of Parkinson’s disease against structural and dynamical changes induced by this mutation on UCH-L1

Solutions of Several Coupled Discrete Models in terms of Lame Polynomials of Order One and Two

Coupled discrete models abound in several areas of physics. Here we provide an extensive set of exact quasiperiodic solutions of a number of coupled discrete models in terms of Lame polynomials of order one and two. Some of the models discussed are (i) coupled Salerno model, (ii) coupled Ablowitz-Ladik model, (iii) coupled saturated discrete nonlinear Schrodinger equation, (iv) coupled phi4 model, and (v) coupled phi6 model. Furthermore, we show that most of these coupled models in fact also possess an even broader class of exact solutions.Comment: 31 pages, to appear in Pramana (Journal of Physics) 201

Comparing the Clinical and Histological Diagnosis of Leprosy and Leprosy Reactions in the INFIR Cohort of Indian Patients with Multibacillary Leprosy

Leprosy affects skin and peripheral nerves. Although we have antibiotics to treat the mycobacterial infection, the accompanying inflammation is a major part of the disease process. This can worsen after starting antibacterial treatment with episodes of immune mediated inflammation, so called reactions. These are associated with worsening of nerve damage. However, diagnosing these reactions is not straightforward. They can be diagnosed clinically by examination or by microscopic examination of the skin biopsies. We studied a cohort of 303 newly diagnosed leprosy patients in India and compared the diagnosis rates by clinical examination and microscopy and found that the microscopic diagnosis has higher rates of diagnosis for both types of reaction. This suggests that clinicians and pathologists have different thresholds for diagnosing reactions. More work is needed to optimise both clinical and pathological diagnosis. In this cohort 43% of patients had Borderline Tuberculoid leprosy, an immunologically active type, and 20% of the biopsies showed only minimal inflammation, perhaps these patients had very early disease or self-healing. The public health implication of this work is that leprosy centres need to be supported by pathologists to help with the clinical management of difficult cases