Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior

Modeling the time to an initial public offering: When does the fruit ripen?

Credit Unions, Demutualization, Hazard Analysis, IPO, C41, G20, G21, L33,

Role of melatonin in the control of depth distribution of Daphnia magna

Previous studies confirmed the presence of melatonin in Daphnia magna and demonstrated diurnal fluctuations in its concentration. It is also known that in several invertebrate species, melatonin affects locomotor activity. We tested the hypothesis that this hormone is involved in the regulation of Daphnia diel vertical migration (DVM) behaviour that is well recognized as the adaptive response to predation threat. Using 'plankton organs', we studied the effect of three concentrations of exogenous melatonin (10-5, 10-7, 10-9 M) on DVM of both female and male D. magna in the presence or absence of chemical cue (kairomone) of planktivorous fish. Depth distribution was measured six times a day, using infrared-sensitive closed circuit television cameras. Our results showed a significant effect of melatonin on the mean depth of experimental populations, both males and females, but only when melatonin was combined with fish kairomone. Females stayed, on average, closer to the surface than males, both responding to the presence of kairomone by descending to deeper strata. In the presence of exogenous melatonin and with the threat of predation, Daphnia stayed closer to the surface and their distribution was more variable than that of individuals, which were exposed to the kairomone alone. Approaching the surface in the presence of predation threat seems to be maladaptive. We postulate the role of melatonin as a stress signal inhibitor in molecular pathways of response to predation threat in Cladocera