Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Genetic polymorphisms of the RAS-cytokine pathway and chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in children is irreversible. It is associated with renal failure progression and atherosclerotic cardiovascular (CV) abnormalities. Nearly 60% of children with CKD are affected since birth with congenital or inherited kidney disorders. Preliminary evidence primarily from adult CKD studies indicates common genetic risk factors for CKD and atherosclerotic CV disease. Although multiple physiologic pathways share common genes for CKD and CV disease, substantial evidence supports our attention to the renin angiotensin system (RAS) and the interlinked inflammatory cascade because they modulate the progressions of renal and CV disease. Gene polymorphisms in the RAS-cytokine pathway, through altered gene expression of inflammatory cytokines, are potential factors that modulate the rate of CKD progression and CV abnormalities in patients with CKD. For studying such hypotheses, the cooperative efforts among scientific groups and the availability of robust and affordable technologies to genotype thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the genome make genome-wide association studies an attractive paradigm for studying polygenic diseases such as CKD. Although attractive, such studies should be interpreted carefully, with a fundamental understanding of their potential weaknesses. Nevertheless, whole-genome association studies for diabetic nephropathy and future studies pertaining to other types of CKD will offer further insight for the development of targeted interventions to treat CKD and associated atherosclerotic CV abnormalities in the pediatric CKD population

Genetic variation and exercise-induced muscle damage: implications for athletic performance, injury and ageing.

Prolonged unaccustomed exercise involving muscle lengthening (eccentric) actions can result in ultrastructural muscle disruption, impaired excitation-contraction coupling, inflammation and muscle protein degradation. This process is associated with delayed onset muscle soreness and is referred to as exercise-induced muscle damage. Although a certain amount of muscle damage may be necessary for adaptation to occur, excessive damage or inadequate recovery from exercise-induced muscle damage can increase injury risk, particularly in older individuals, who experience more damage and require longer to recover from muscle damaging exercise than younger adults. Furthermore, it is apparent that inter-individual variation exists in the response to exercise-induced muscle damage, and there is evidence that genetic variability may play a key role. Although this area of research is in its infancy, certain gene variations, or polymorphisms have been associated with exercise-induced muscle damage (i.e. individuals with certain genotypes experience greater muscle damage, and require longer recovery, following strenuous exercise). These polymorphisms include ACTN3 (R577X, rs1815739), TNF (-308 G>A, rs1800629), IL6 (-174 G>C, rs1800795), and IGF2 (ApaI, 17200 G>A, rs680). Knowing how someone is likely to respond to a particular type of exercise could help coaches/practitioners individualise the exercise training of their athletes/patients, thus maximising recovery and adaptation, while reducing overload-associated injury risk. The purpose of this review is to provide a critical analysis of the literature concerning gene polymorphisms associated with exercise-induced muscle damage, both in young and older individuals, and to highlight the potential mechanisms underpinning these associations, thus providing a better understanding of exercise-induced muscle damage