PUTTING THE "ECON" INTO ECONOMETRICS

Should econometricians always incorporate economic theory in their models or only when unrestricted estimators are found to violate an inviolable theory? Using Monte Carlo experiments, we find that econometricians should use economic theory to the fullest extent possible. To paraphrase Leamer's classic article, we should put the "econ" into econometrics.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

ECONOMIC CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTS

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.Commodity prices, Forecast evaluation, Value of information, Consumer/Household Economics,

Properties and Performance of High-Purity Thermal Barrier Coatings

It has been found that reducing the level of impurity oxides (particularly SiO2 and Al2O3) in 7YSZ, from about 0.2 wt% to below 0.1 wt% raises the sintering resistance and the phase stability of plasma-sprayed coatings. The implications for the usage of these coatings at elevated temperatures are examined. It is concluded that using relatively high-purity powder of this type is likely to confer substantial benefits in terms of the thermomechanical stability of the coatings under service conditions

Effect of Heat Treatment on Pore Architecture and Associated Property Charges in Plasma Sprayed TBCs

Plasma sprayed TBCs exhibit many interlamellar pores, voids and microcracks. These microstructural features are primarily responsible for the low global stiffnesses and the low thermal conductivities commonly exhibited by such coatings. The pore architecture thus has an important influence on such thermophysical properties. In the present work, the effect of heat treatment (at temperatures up to 1400C, for times of up to 100 hours) and coating purity on the pore architecture in detached YSZ top coats has been characterised by Mercury Intrusion Porosimetry (MIP) and BJH Analysis. While the overall porosity level (measured by densitometry) remained relatively unaffected (at around 10-12%) after the heat treatments concerned, there were substantial changes in the pore size distribution and the (inter-connected) specific surface area, although these changes occurred less rapidly with coatings produced using high purity powders. Fine pores (<~50 nm) rapidly disappeared, while the specific surface area dropped dramatically, particularly at high treatment temperatures (>~1300C). These changes are thought to be associated with improved inter-splat bonding and increased contact area, leading to disappearance of much of the very fine inter-splat porosity. These microstructural changes are reflected in sharply increased stiffness and thermal conductivity. Measured thermal conductivity data are compared with predictions from a recently-developed analytical model [1], using the deduced inter-splat contact area results as input parameters. Good agreement is obtained, suggesting that the model captures the main geometrical effects and the porosity architecture measurements reflect the most significant microstructural changes. REF.1. Golosnoy, IO, Tsipas, SA and Clyne, TW, An Analytical Model For Simulation Of Heat Flow In Plasma Sprayed Thermal Barrier Coating, J. Thermal Spray Techn., 14 (2005) 205-214

System design of the Pioneer Venus spacecraft. Volume 1: Executive summary

The NASA Ames Research Center Pioneer Venus Project objective is to conduct scientific investigations of the planet Venus using spin stabilized spacecraft. The defined approach to accomplish this goal is to implement a multiprobe spacecraft mission and an orbiter spacecraft mission. Candidate launch vehicles for the Pioneer Venus missions were the Thor/Delta and Atlas/Centaur. The multiprobe spacecraft consists of a probe bus, one large probe, and three small probes. The probes are designed to survive to the surface of Venus, and to make in situ measurements of the Venusian atmosphere; the probe bus enters the atmosphere and makes scientific measurements until it burns out. The orbiter mission uses a spacecraft designed to orbit Venus for 225 days with an orbit period of about 24 hours (h). The probe bus and orbiter designs are to use a common spacecraft bus

Shuttle/spacelab MMAP/electromagnetic environment experiment phase B definition study

Progress made during the first five months of the Phase B definition study for the MMAP/Electromagnetic Environment Experiment (EEE) was described. An antenna/receiver assembly has been defined and sized for stowing in a three pallet bay area in the shuttle. Six scanning modes for the assembly are analyzed and footprints for various antenna sizes are plotted. Mission profiles have been outlined for a 400 km height, 57 deg inclination angle, circular orbit. Viewing time over 7 geographical areas are listed. Shuttle interfaces have been studied to determine what configuration the antenna assembly must have to be shared with other experiments of the Microwave Multi-Applications Payload (MMAP) and to be stowed in the shuttle bay. Other results reported include a frequency plan, a proposed antenna subsystem design, a proposed receiver design, preliminary outlines of the experiment controls and an analysis of on-board and ground data processing schemes

First principles simulations of 2D Cu superlattices on the MgO(001) surface

First principles slab simulations of copper 2D superlattices of different densities on the perfect MgO(0 0 1) surface are performed using the DFT method as implemented into the CRYSTAL98 computer code. In order to clarify the nature of interfacial bonding, we consider regular 1/4, 1/2 and I monolayer (ML) coverages and compare results of our calculations with various experimental and theoretical data. Our general conclusion is that the physical adhesion associated with a Cu polarization and charge redistribution gives the predominant contribution to the bonding of the regular Cu 2D layer on the MgO(0 0 1) surface. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

The kinetic MC modelling of reversible pattern formation in initial stages of thin metallic film growth on crystalline substrates

The results of kinetic MC simulations of the reversible pattern formation during the adsorption of mobile metal atoms on crystalline substrates are discussed. Pattern formation, simulated for submonolayer metal coverage, is characterized in terms of the joint correlation functions for a spatial distribution of adsorbed atoms. A wide range of situations, from the almost irreversible to strongly reversible regimes, is simulated. We demonstrate that the patterns obtained are defined by a key dimensionless parameter: the ratio of the mutual attraction energy between atoms to the substrate temperature. Our ab initio calculations for the nearest Ag-Ag adsorbate atom interaction on an MgO substrate give an attraction energy as large as 1.6 eV, close to that in a free molecule. This is in contrast to the small Ag adhesion and migration energies (0.23 and 0.05 eV, respectively) on a defect-free MgO substrate. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved