Projecting current and future location, quality, and connectivity of habitat for breeding birds in the Great Basin

We estimated the current location, quality, and connectivity of habitat for 50 species of breeding birds in four mountain ranges in the central Great Basin (Lander, Nye, and Eureka Counties, Nevada) and projected the future location, quality, and connectivity of habitat for these species given different scenarios of climate-induced land-cover change. In the United States, such models are relevant to federally mandated management of wild animals by state-level agencies. We sampled birds during the breeding seasons of 2001–2009 with fixed-radius point counts. For each species, we used boosted regression trees to model incidence (proportion of years a location was surveyed in which the species was present) as a function of topography and current land cover and climate. To assess model fit, we calculated the proportion of binomial deviance explained. We used cross-validation to estimate the predictive accuracy of the models. We applied the conservation planning program Zonation to identify locations where incidences of multiple species were maximized through time given current land cover and two scenarios of land-cover change, expansion of pinyon–juniper woodland into sagebrush shrubsteppe and contraction of riparian woodland. Models based on a set of 13 covariates derived from remotely sensed data had some predictive capacity for 41 of 50 species. Model outputs suggested substantial changes in amount of habitat for many species following projected expansion of pinyon–juniper woodland, but less pronounced changes following projected contraction of riparian woodland. Zonation analyses indicated that the spatial distribution of the highest-quality habitat for the avian assemblage was relatively consistent through time under both scenarios. Breeding birds in the Great Basin commonly are grouped in management plans on the basis of their general association with land-cover classes such as pinyon–juniper woodland, sagebrush shrubsteppe, and riparian woodland. However, even within these groups, the environmental attributes that explained a high proportion of variation in species' incidences and the projected responses to different scenarios of land-cover change varied considerably among species

Rainfall and the interaction of microclimate with larval resources in the population dynamics of checkerspot butterflies (Euphydryas editha) inhabiting serpentine grassland

International audienceThe interaction of host plant phenology and microclimatic heterogeneity was examined to determine its role in the population dynamics of checkerspot butterflies, Euphydryas editha, inhabiting serpentine grassland in California's outer Coast Range. Within the 2–3 hectares inhabited by a population of E. editha (Jasper Ridge Area H), microclimatic differences resulting from topographic heterogeneity largely determine the temporal and spatial pattern of senescence of the larval host plants, Plantago erecta and Orthocarpus densiflorus. Survival of larvae from hatching to diapause is extremely low as a result of unpredictable variation in the timing of larval development relative to the timing of host plant senescence, both of which are mediated by microclimatic patterns. During this study, population H declined to near extinction as a result of two consecutive years of record rainfall that apparently disrupted the tenuous temporal relationship between larval development and plant senescence. Retarded development of post-diapause larvae led to a late and extended flight season and delayed egg production; this in turn resulted in massive mortality of pre-diapause larvae due to starvation because host plant senescence occurred before larvae became large enough to enter diapause. Adult population size the following spring was the smallest in 25 years of study. This work emphasizes the importance of microclimatic heterogeneity for understanding population-level processes in small ectothermic animals and underlines the potential importance of such heterogeneity in the establishment of reserves designed to protect such animal

An Approximation Algorithm for Minimum Convex Cover with Logarithmic Performance Guarantee

The problem Minimum Convex Cover of covering a given polygon with a minimum number of (possibly overlapping) convex polygons is known to be NP-hard, even for polygons without holes [3]. We propose a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for this problem for polygons with or without holes that achieves an approximation ratio of O(log n), where n is the number of vertices in the input polygon. To obtain this result, we first show that an optimum solution of a restricted version of this problem, where the vertices of the convex polygons may only lie on a certain grid, contains at most three times as many convex polygons as the optimum solution of the unrestricted problem. As a second step, we use dynamic programming to obtain a convex polygon which is maximum with respect to the number of "basic triangles" that are not yet covered by another convex polygon. We obtain a solution that is at most a logarithmic factor o# the optimum by iteratively applying our dynamic programming algorithm. Furthermore, we show that Minimum Convex Cover is APX-hard, i.e., there exists a constant #>0 such that no polynomial-time algorithm can achieve an approximation ratio of 1 + #. We obtain this result by analyzing and slightly modifying an already existing reduction [3]