Optimal stated preference choice experiments when all choice sets contain a specific option

Stated preference choice experiments are routinely used in many areas from marketing to medicine. While results on the optimal choice sets to present for the forced choice setting have been determined in a variety of situations, no results have appeared to date on the optimal choice sets to use when either all choice sets are to contain a common base alternative or when all choice sets contain a "none of these" option. These problems are considered in this paper. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Optimal and near-optimal pairs for the estimation of effects in 2-level choice experiments

This paper gives constructions for optimal and near-optimal sets of pairs for the estimation of main effects, and for the estimation of main effects and two factor interactions, in forced choice experiments in which all attributes have two levels. The number of pairs in the sets is much smaller than that in previously constructed optimal 2-level choice experiments. © 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Optimal designs for stated choice experiments that incorporate position effects

Davidson and Beaver (1977) extended the Bradley-Terry model to incorporate the possible effect of position within a choice set on the choices made in paired comparisons experiments. We further extend the Davidson-Beaver result to choice sets of any size and show, under a mild restriction, that designs optimal for the multinomial logit model are still optimal. Designs balanced for carry-over effects of all orders can be used to construct designs with a diagonal information matrix for attribute effects. The theoretical results are derived assuming equal merits and we discuss the possible consequences of assuming unequal merits in an example. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Global environmental drivers of marine fish egg size

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.All data, R packages, and code (data manipulation, analyses, figures andtables) can be downloaded from our GitHub repositories (www.github.com/dbarneche/noaaErddap; www.github.com/dbarneche/envPred;https://github.com/dbarneche/fishEggSize)Aim To test long‐standing theory on the role of environmental conditions (both mean and predictability) in shaping global patterns in the egg sizes of marine fishes. Location Global (50° S to 50° N). Time period 1880 to 2015. Major taxa studied Marine fish. Methods We compiled the largest geo‐located dataset of marine fish egg size (diameter) to date (n = 1,078 observations; 192 studies; 288 species; 242 localities). We decomposed sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll‐a time series into mean and predictability (seasonality and colour of environmental noise – i.e. how predictable the environment is between consecutive time steps), and used these as predictors of egg size in a Bayesian phylogenetic hierarchical model. We test four specific hypotheses based on the classic discussion by Rass (1941), as well as contemporary life‐history theory, and the conceptual model of Winemiller and Rose (1992). Results Both environmental mean and predictability correlated with egg size. Our parsimonious model indicated that egg size decreases by c. 2.0‐fold moving from 1 to 30 °C. Environments that were more seasonal with respect to temperature were associated with larger eggs. Increasing mean chlorophyll‐a, from 0.1 to 1 mg/m3, was associated with a c. 1.3‐fold decrease in egg size. Lower chlorophyll‐a seasonality and reddened noise were also associated with larger egg sizes – aseasonal but more temporally autocorrelated resource regimes favoured larger eggs. Main conclusions Our findings support results from Rass (1941) and some predictions from Winemiller and Rose (1992). The effects of environmental means and predictability on marine fish egg size are largely consistent with those observed in marine invertebrates with feeding larvae, suggesting that there are important commonalities in how ectotherm egg size responds to environmental change. Our results further suggest that anthropogenically mediated changes in the environment will have profound effects on the distribution of marine life histories.Centre for Geometric Biolog

Classifying ecosystem stressor interactions: Theory highlights the data limitations of the additive null model and the difficulty in revealing ecological surprises

Understanding how multiple co-occurring environmental stressors combine to affect biodiversity and ecosystem services is an on-going grand challenge for ecology. Currently, progress has been made through accumulating large numbers of smaller-scale empirical studies that are then investigated by meta-analyses to detect general patterns. There is particular interest in detecting, understanding and predicting ‘ecological surprises’ where stressors interact in a non-additive (e.g. antagonistic or synergistic) manner, but so far few general results have emerged. However, the ability of the statistical tools to recover non-additive interactions in the face of data uncertainty is unstudied, so crucially, we do not know how well the empirical results reflect the true stressor interactions. Here, we investigate the performance of the commonly implemented additive null model. A meta-analysis of a large (545 interactions) empirical dataset for the effects of pairs of stressors on freshwater communities reveals additive interactions dominate individual studies, whereas pooling the data leads to an antagonistic summary interaction class. However, analyses of simulated data from food chain models, where the underlying interactions are known, suggest both sets of results may be due to observation error within the data. Specifically, we show that the additive null model is highly sensitive to observation error, with non-additive interactions being reliably detected at only unrealistically low levels of data uncertainty. Similarly, plausible levels of observation error lead to meta-analyses reporting antagonistic summary interaction classifications even when synergies co-dominate. Therefore, while our empirical results broadly agree with those of previous freshwater meta-analyses, we conclude these patterns may be driven by statistical sampling rather than any ecological mechanisms. Further investigation of candidate null models used to define stressor-pair interactions is essential, and once any artefacts are accounted for, the so-called ‘ecological surprises’ may be more frequent than was previously assumed

COUNTERMOVEMENT JUMP PERFORMANCE IS NOT AFFECTED DURING AN IN-SEASON TRAINING MICROCYCLE IN ELITE YOUTH SOCCER PLAYERS

This study examined the change in countermovement jump (CMJ) performance across a microcycle of training in professional soccer players during the in-season period. Nine elite youth soccer players performed a CMJ test pre and post four consecutive soccer training sessions of an in-season weekly microcycle. Training load was quantified using global positioning systems (GPS), heart rate (HR) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE). Absolute change (pre to post training) in CMJ height across each training session was analysed using one-way repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA). Magnitude of effects was reported with the effect size (ES) statistic. Correlation analyses assessed the relationships between training load measures and the absolute change in CMJ height. Training load remained similar on all training days apart from a significant decrease in training load (all variables except high speed distance) on the last training session (P 0.05). This study revealed no significant change in CMJ performance across the in-season microcycle. This suggests that soccer players are able to maintain CMJ performance across an in-season training microcycle

Lysyl oxidases regulate fibrillar collagen remodelling in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive scarring disease of the lung with few effective therapeutic options. Structural remodelling of the extracellular matrix [i.e. collagen cross-linking mediated by the lysyl oxidase (LO) family of enzymes (LOX, LOXL1-4)] might contribute to disease pathogenesis and represent a therapeutic target. This study aimed to further our understanding of the mechanisms by which LO inhibitors might improve lung fibrosis. Lung tissues from IPF and non-IPF subjects were examined for collagen structure (second harmonic generation imaging) and LO gene (microarray analysis) and protein (immunohistochemistry and western blotting) levels. Functional effects (collagen structure and tissue stiffness using atomic force microscopy) of LO inhibitors on collagen remodelling were examined in two models, collagen hydrogels and decellularized human lung matrices. LOXL1/LOXL2 gene expression and protein levels were increased in IPF versus non-IPF. Increased collagen fibril thickness in IPF versus non-IPF lung tissues correlated with increased LOXL1/LOXL2, and decreased LOX, protein expression. β-Aminoproprionitrile (β-APN; pan-LO inhibitor) but not Compound A (LOXL2-specific inhibitor) interfered with transforming growth factor-β-induced collagen remodelling in both models. The β-APN treatment group was tested further, and β-APN was found to interfere with stiffening in the decellularized matrix model. LOXL1 activity might drive collagen remodelling in IPF lungs. The interrelationship between collagen structural remodelling and LOs is disrupted in IPF lungs. Inhibition of LO activity alleviates fibrosis by limiting fibrillar collagen cross-linking, thereby potentially impeding the formation of a pathological microenvironment in IPF

Cleaning up the cosmological constant

We present a novel idea for screening the vacuum energy contribution to the overall value of the cosmological constant, thereby enabling us to choose the bare value of the vacuum curvature empirically, without any need to worry about the zero-point energy contributions of each particle. The trick is to couple matter to a metric that is really a composite of other fields, with the property that the square-root of its determinant is the integrand of a topological invariant, and/or a total derivative. This ensures that the vacuum energy contribution to the Lagrangian is non-dynamical. We then give an explicit example of a theory with this property that is free from Ostrogradski ghosts, and is consistent with solar system physics and cosmological tests.Comment: 8 pages, typos corrected and more text added, version accepted for publication in JHE

Identification of genomic loci associated with resting heart rate and shared genetic predictors with all-cause mortality

Resting heart rate is a heritable trait correlated with life span. Little is known about the genetic contribution to resting heart rate and its relationship with mortality. We performed a genome-wide association discovery and replication analysis starting with 19.9 million genetic variants and studying up to 265,046 individuals to identify 64 loci associated with resting heart rate (P < 5 × 10$^{-8}$); 46 of these were novel. We then used the genetic variants identified to study the association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality. We observed that a genetically predicted resting heart rate increase of 5 beats per minute was associated with a 20% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.28, P = 8.20 × 10$^{-7}$) translating to a reduction in life expectancy of 2.9 years for males and 2.6 years for females. Our findings provide evidence for shared genetic predictors of resting heart rate and all-cause mortality.This research was conducted using the UK Biobank Resource. This project is supported by the Netherlands organization for health research and development (ZonMw grant 90.700.441). S.B. is supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant 100114). P.B.M. acknowledges support from the NIHR Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit at Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London. N.V. is supported by Netherlands Heart Institute and Marie Sklodowska-Curie Global Fellowship (grant 661395)