Pre- and post-selected ensembles and time-symmetry in quantum mechanics

An expression is proposed for the quantum mechanical state of a pre- and post-selected ensemble, which is an ensemble determined by the final as well as the initial state of the quantum systems involved. It is shown that the probabilities calculated from the proposed state agree with previous expressions, for cases where they both apply. The same probabilities are found when they are calculated in the forward- or reverse-time directions. This work was prompted by several problems raised by Shimony recently in relation to the state, and time symmetry, of pre- and post-selected ensembles.Comment: RevTex4, 17 pages, no fig

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Analyzing designed experiments in distance sampling

Distance sampling is a survey technique for estimating the abundance or density of wild animal populations. Detection probabilities of animals inherently differ by species, age class, habitats, or sex. By incorporating the change in an observer’s ability to detect a particular class of animals as a function of distance, distance sampling leads to density estimates that are comparable across different species, ages, habitats, sexes, and so on. Increasing interest in evaluating the effects of management practices on animal populations in an experimental context has led to a need for suitable methods of analyzing distance sampling data. We outline a two-stage approach for analyzing distance sampling data from designed experiments, in which a two-step bootstrap is used to quantify precision and identify treatment effects. We illustrate this approach using data from a before—after control-impact experiment designed to assess the effects of large-scale prescribed fire treatments on bird densities in ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States

Analyzing designed experiments in distance sampling

Distance sampling is a survey technique for estimating the abundance or density of wild animal populations. Detection probabilities of animals inherently differ by species, age class, habitats, or sex. By incorporating the change in an observer’s ability to detect a particular class of animals as a function of distance, distance sampling leads to density estimates that are comparable across different species, ages, habitats, sexes, and so on. Increasing interest in evaluating the effects of management practices on animal populations in an experimental context has led to a need for suitable methods of analyzing distance sampling data. We outline a two-stage approach for analyzing distance sampling data from designed experiments, in which a two-step bootstrap is used to quantify precision and identify treatment effects. We illustrate this approach using data from a before—after control-impact experiment designed to assess the effects of large-scale prescribed fire treatments on bird densities in ponderosa pine forests of the southwestern United States