Independent Validation of an Existing Model Enables Prediction of Hearing Loss after Childhood Bacterial Meningitis

Objective: This study aimed external validation of a formerly developed prediction model identifying children at risk for hearing loss after bacterial meningitis (BM). Independent risk factors included in the model are: duration of symptoms prior to admission, petechiae, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) glucose level, Streptococcus pneumoniae and ataxia. Validation helps to evaluate whether the model has potential in clinical practice. Study design: 116 Dutch school-age BM survivors were included in the validation cohort and screened for sensorineural hearing loss (>25 dB). Risk factors were obtained from medical records. The model was applied to the validation cohort and its performance was compared with the development cohort. Validation was performed by application of the model on the validation cohort and by assessment of discrimination and goodness of fit. Calibration was evaluated by testing deviations in intercept and slope. Multiple imputation techniques were used to deal with missing values. Results: Risk factors were distributed equally between both cohorts. Discriminative ability (Area Under the Curve, AUC) of the model was 0.84 in the development and 0.78 in the validation cohort. Hosmer-Lemeshow test for goodness of fit was not significant in the validation cohort, implying good fit concerning the similarity of expected and observed cases. There were no significant differences in calibration slope and intercept. Sensitivity and negative predicted value were high, while specificity and positive predicted value were low which is comparable with findings in the development cohort. Conclusions: Performance of the model remained good in the validation cohort. This prediction model might be used as a screening tool and can help to identify those children that need special attention and a long follow-up period or more frequent auditory testing

Tuna Longline Fishing around West and Central Pacific Seamounts

BACKGROUND: Seamounts have been identified as aggregating locations for pelagic biodiversity including tuna; however the topography and prevailing oceanography differ between seamounts and not all are important for tuna. Although a relatively common feature in oceanic ecosystems, little information is available that identifies those that are biologically important. Improved knowledge offers opportunities for unique management of these areas, which may advance the sustainable management of oceanic resources. In this study, we evaluate the existence of an association between seamounts and tuna longline fisheries at the ocean basin scale, identify significant seamounts for tuna in the western and central Pacific Ocean, and quantify the seamount contribution to the tuna longline catch. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use data collected for the Western and Central Pacific Ocean for bigeye, yellowfin, and albacore tuna at the ocean basin scale. GLMs were applied to a coupled dataset of longline fisheries catch and effort, and seamount location information. The analyses show that seamounts may be associated with an annual longline combined catch of 35 thousand tonnes, with higher catch apparent for yellowfin, bigeye, and albacore tuna on 17%, 14%, and 14% of seamounts respectively. In contrast 14%, 18%, and 20% of seamounts had significantly lower catches for yellowfin, bigeye and albacore tuna respectively. Studying catch data in relation to seamount positions presents several challenges such as bias in location of seamounts, or lack of spatial resolution of fisheries data. Whilst we recognize these limitations the criteria used for detecting significant seamounts were conservative and the error in identification is likely to be low albeit unknown. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Seamounts throughout the study area were found to either enhance or reduce tuna catch. This indicates that management of seamounts is important Pacific-wide, but management approaches must take account of local conditions. Management of tuna and biodiversity resources in the region would benefit from considering such effects

Evidence of discrete yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) populations demands rethink of management for this globally important resource

Tropical tuna fisheries are central to food security and economic development of many regions of the world. Contemporary population assessment and management generally assume these fisheries exploit a single mixed spawning population, within ocean basins. To date population genetics has lacked the required power to conclusively test this assumption. Here we demonstrate heterogeneous population structure among yellowfin tuna sampled at three locations across the Pacific Ocean (western, central, and eastern) via analysis of double digest restriction-site associated DNA using Next Generation Sequencing technology. The differences among locations are such that individuals sampled from one of the three regions examined can be assigned with close to 100% accuracy demonstrating the power of this approach for providing practical markers for fishery independent verification of catch provenance in a way not achieved by previous techniques. Given these results, an extended pan-tropical survey of yellowfin tuna using this approach will not only help combat the largest threat to sustainable fisheries (i.e. illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing) but will also provide a basis to transform current monitoring, assessment, and management approaches for this globally significant species