189 research outputs found
Data Analysis and Robust Modelling of the Impact of Renewable Generation on Long Term Security of Supply and Demand
This paper studies rigorous statistical techniques for modelling long term reliability of demand and supply of electrical power given uncertain variability in the generation and availability of wind power and conventional generation. In doing so, we take care to validate statistical assumptions, using historical observations, as well as our intuition about the actual underlying real-world statistical process. Where assumptions could not be easily validated, we say so explicitly. In particular, we aim to improve existing statistical models through sensitivity analysis of ill-known parameters: we propose models for wind power and conventional generation, estimate their parameters from historical wind power data and conventional availability data, and finally combine them with historical demand data to build a full robust joint time-dependent model of energy not served. Bounds on some useful indices from this model are then calculated, such as expected energy not served, and expected number of continuous outage periods-the latter cannot be estimated from a purely time collapsed model because time collapsed models necessarily do not model correlations across time. We compare our careful model with a naive model that ignores deviations from normality, and find that this results in substantial differences: in this specific study, the naive model overestimates the risk roughly by a factor 2. This justifies the care and caution by which model assumptions must be verified, and the effort that must be taken to adapt the model accordingly
Fundamental constants and tests of general relativity - Theoretical and cosmological considerations
The tests of the constancy of the fundamental constants are tests of the
local position invariance and thus of the equivalence principle. We summarize
the various constraints that have been obtained and then describe the
connection between varying constants and extensions of general relativity. To
finish, we discuss the link with cosmology, and more particularly with the
acceleration of the Universe. We take the opportunity to summarize various
possibilities to test general relativity (but also the Copernican principle) on
cosmological scales.Comment: Proceedings of the workshop ``The nature of gravity, confronting
theory and experiment in space'', ISSI, Bern, october 200
Dimensionless cosmology
Although it is well known that any consideration of the variations of
fundamental constants should be restricted to their dimensionless combinations,
the literature on variations of the gravitational constant is entirely
dimensionful. To illustrate applications of this to cosmology, we explicitly
give a dimensionless version of the parameters of the standard cosmological
model, and describe the physics of Big Bang Neucleosynthesis and recombination
in a dimensionless manner. The issue that appears to have been missed in many
studies is that in cosmology the strength of gravity is bound up in the
cosmological equations, and the epoch at which we live is a crucial part of the
model. We argue that it is useful to consider the hypothetical situation of
communicating with another civilization (with entirely different units),
comparing only dimensionless constants, in order to decide if we live in a
Universe governed by precisely the same physical laws. In this thought
experiment, we would also have to compare epochs, which can be defined by
giving the value of any {\it one} of the evolving cosmological parameters. By
setting things up carefully in this way one can avoid inconsistent results when
considering variable constants, caused by effectively fixing more than one
parameter today. We show examples of this effect by considering microwave
background anisotropies, being careful to maintain dimensionlessness
throughout. We present Fisher matrix calculations to estimate how well the fine
structure constants for electromagnetism and gravity can be determined with
future microwave background experiments. We highlight how one can be misled by
simply adding to the usual cosmological parameter set
Star Formation and Dynamics in the Galactic Centre
The centre of our Galaxy is one of the most studied and yet enigmatic places
in the Universe. At a distance of about 8 kpc from our Sun, the Galactic centre
(GC) is the ideal environment to study the extreme processes that take place in
the vicinity of a supermassive black hole (SMBH). Despite the hostile
environment, several tens of early-type stars populate the central parsec of
our Galaxy. A fraction of them lie in a thin ring with mild eccentricity and
inner radius ~0.04 pc, while the S-stars, i.e. the ~30 stars closest to the
SMBH (<0.04 pc), have randomly oriented and highly eccentric orbits. The
formation of such early-type stars has been a puzzle for a long time: molecular
clouds should be tidally disrupted by the SMBH before they can fragment into
stars. We review the main scenarios proposed to explain the formation and the
dynamical evolution of the early-type stars in the GC. In particular, we
discuss the most popular in situ scenarios (accretion disc fragmentation and
molecular cloud disruption) and migration scenarios (star cluster inspiral and
Hills mechanism). We focus on the most pressing challenges that must be faced
to shed light on the process of star formation in the vicinity of a SMBH.Comment: 68 pages, 35 figures; invited review chapter, to be published in
expanded form in Haardt, F., Gorini, V., Moschella, U. and Treves, A.,
'Astrophysical Black Holes'. Lecture Notes in Physics. Springer 201
All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO
We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10-500 s in a frequency band of 40-1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10-5 and 9.4×10-4 Mpc-3 yr-1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves. © 2016 American Physical Society
Narrowband Searches for Continuous and Long-duration Transient Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars in the LIGO-Virgo Third Observing Run
Isolated neutron stars that are asymmetric with respect to their spin axis are possible sources of detectable continuous gravitational waves. This paper presents a fully coherent search for such signals from eighteen pulsars in data from LIGO and Virgo's third observing run (O3). For known pulsars, efficient and sensitive matched-filter searches can be carried out if one assumes the gravitational radiation is phase-locked to the electromagnetic emission. In the search presented here, we relax this assumption and allow both the frequency and the time derivative of the frequency of the gravitational waves to vary in a small range around those inferred from electromagnetic observations. We find no evidence for continuous gravitational waves, and set upper limits on the strain amplitude for each target. These limits are more constraining for seven of the targets than the spin-down limit defined by ascribing all rotational energy loss to gravitational radiation. In an additional search, we look in O3 data for long-duration (hours-months) transient gravitational waves in the aftermath of pulsar glitches for six targets with a total of nine glitches. We report two marginal outliers from this search, but find no clear evidence for such emission either. The resulting duration-dependent strain upper limits do not surpass indirect energy constraints for any of these targets. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society
All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO
We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10-500 s in a frequency band of 40-1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10-5 and 9.4×10-4 Mpc-3 yr-1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves. © 2016 American Physical Society
Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO-Virgo Run O3b
We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC-2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: A generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society
- …