Eliciting von Neumann-Morgenstern Utilities when Probabilities Are Distorted or Unknown

This paper proposes a new method, the (gamble-)tradeoff method, for eliciting utilities in decision under risk or uncertainty. The elicitation of utilities, to be used in the expected utility criterion, turns out to be possible even if probabilities are ambiguous or unknown. A disadvantage of the tradeoff method is that a few more questions usually must be asked to clients. Also, the lotteries that are needed are somewhat more complex than in the certainty-equivalent method or in the probability-equivalent method. The major advantage of the tradeoff method is its robustness against probability distortions and misconceptions, which constitute a major cause of violations of expected utility and generate inconsistencies in utility elicitation. Thus the tradeoff method retains full validity under prospect theory, rank-dependent utility, and the combination of the two, i.e., cumulative prospect theory. The tradeoff method is tested for monetary outcomes and for outcomes describing life-duration. We find higher risk aversion for life duration, but the tradeoff method elicits similar curvature of utility. Apparently the higher risk aversion for life duration is due to more pronounced deviations from expected utility

Mergers, Strategic Investments and Antitrust Policy

Established firms can diversify into new markets in two distinct modes: through internal development or through conglomerate merger. Building on a dynamic three-stage bargaining model with variable threats, this paper shows that a lenient antitrust position toward horizontal mergers can induce established firms that would otherwise not have entered to enter via conglomerate merger. The vigor of antitrust enforcement toward horizontal mergers also affects the conglomerate acquisition price but it does not influence the choice of entry mode. Finally, the paper brings to light a heretofore neglected avenue through which conglomerate mergers can increase welfare

Proposal for a New Type of Ion-source - Hecrisol

A new type of ISOL source consisting of a He-jet combined with an ECR-source optimized for singly charged ions is proposed. The advantages of HECRISOL compared to existing sources is briefly discussed.Anglai

Second primary lung cancer in Flanders : frequency, clinical presentation, treatment and prognosis

Patient and tumour characteristics of 23 patients presenting with a second primary lung cancer were analysed and compared with 534 patients with radically resected stage 1 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). None of these characteristics is associated with a higher occurrence rate for second primary lung cancer. Prognosis in the latter patients is significantly worse than after resection of a 'solitary' NSCLC: the median survival time (MST) after resection of the first tumour is 50 months; after diagnosis of the second tumour only 14 months. Surgically retreated patients have a prognosis that is similar to that after resection of a 'solitary' NSCLC. No separate independent prognostic factors responsible for this surivival difference could be isolated. Squamous histology and central location are associated with a longer recurrence free survival time. We conclude that the occurrence of a second primary lung cancer can not be predicted based on patient or tumour characteristics and that only surgical retreatment offers a chance of long survival in these patients