Association of Simulated COVID-19 Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality

IMPORTANCE Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood. OBJECTIVE To assess the association of simulated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without NPIs with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS An established agent-based decision analytical model was used to simulate COVID-19 transmission and progression from March 24, 2020, to September 23, 2021. The model simulated COVID-19 spread in North Carolina, a US state of 10.5 million people. A network of 1 017 720 agents was constructed from US Census data to represent the statewide population. EXPOSURES Scenarios of vaccine efficacy (50% and 90%), vaccine coverage (25%, 50%, and 75% at the end of a 6-month distribution period), and NPIs (reduced mobility, school closings, and use of face masks) maintained and removed during vaccine distribution. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Risks of infection from the start of vaccine distribution and risk differences comparing scenarios. Outcome means and SDs were calculated across replications. RESULTS In the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy, 25%coverage), a mean (SD) of 2 231 134 (117 867) new infections occurred after vaccination began with NPIs removed, and a mean (SD) of 799 949 (60 279) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained during 11 months. In contrast, in the best-case scenario (90% efficacy, 75%coverage), a mean (SD) of 527 409 (40 637) new infections occurred with NPIs removed and a mean (SD) of 450 575 (32 716) new infections occurred with NPIs maintained. With NPIs removed, lower efficacy (50%) and higher coverage (75%) reduced infection risk by a greater magnitude than higher efficacy (90%) and lower coverage (25%) compared with theworst-case scenario (mean [SD] absolute risk reduction, 13%[1%] and 8%[1%], respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Simulation outcomes suggest that removing NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. These findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before many prepandemic activities can be resumed

Calculations of double cylinder implosions at OMEGA

Foam-filled double cylinder targets have been imploded by the OMEGA laser at the University of Rochester. A marker layer of heavier material is placed between the foam and the outside ablator. The marker layer is hydrodynamically unstable when a strong shock passes through both these interfaces and the marker layer material mixes into the foam and the ablator. These experiments thus measure mix in the compressible, convergent, miscible, strong-shock regime. With double cylinder targets, the initial shock converges on the central cylinder and then rebounds and expands. The shock is predicted to create even more mixing of the marker layer as it traverses the previously mixed region. The strength of the reflected shock can be varied by changing the materials in the inner cylinder. Calculations of these implosions using the AMR code, RAGE, are presented for the several target designs. The 2-d calculations give the hydrodynamic evolution of the implosion, shock timings, and the growth of the mix width. The calculations include the effects of surface roughness in the marker layer. Simulated radiographs of the cylindrical implosions are also shown

Can vaccine prioritization reduce disparities in COVID-19 burden for historically marginalized populations?

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategies were designed to reduce COVID-19 mortality, morbidity, and health inequities. To assess the impact of vaccination strategies on disparities in COVID-19 burden among historically marginalized populations (HMPs), e.g. Black race and Hispanic ethnicity, we used an agent-based simulation model, populated with census-tract data from North Carolina. We projected COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations, and cases from 2020 July 1 to 2021 December 31, and estimated racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes. We modeled 2-stage vaccination prioritization scenarios applied to sub-groups including essential workers, older adults (65+), adults with high-risk health conditions, HMPs, or people in low-income tracts. Additionally, we estimated the effects of maximal uptake (100% for HMP vs. 100% for everyone), and distribution to only susceptible people. We found strategies prioritizing essential workers, then older adults led to the largest mortality and case reductions compared to no prioritization. Under baseline uptake scenarios, the age-adjusted mortality for HMPs was higher (e.g. 33.3%-34.1% higher for the Black population and 13.3%-17.0% for the Hispanic population) compared to the White population. The burden on HMPs decreased only when uptake was increased to 100% in HMPs; however, the Black population still had the highest relative mortality rate even when targeted distribution strategies were employed. If prioritization schemes were not paired with increased uptake in HMPs, disparities did not improve. The vaccination strategies publicly outlined were insufficient, exacerbating disparities between racial and ethnic groups. Strategies targeted to increase vaccine uptake among HMPs are needed to ensure equitable distribution and minimize disparities in outcomes

Early Markers of Glycaemic Control in Children with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus

Background: Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) may lead to severe long-term health consequences. In a longitudinal study, we aimed to identify factors present at diagnosis and 6 months later that were associated with glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA 1c) levels at 24 months after T1DM diagnosis, so that diabetic children at risk of poor glycaemic control may be identified. Methods: 229 children,15 years of age diagnosed with T1DM in the Auckland region were studied. Data collected at diagnosis were: age, sex, weight, height, ethnicity, family living arrangement, socio-economic status (SES), T1DM antibody titre, venous pH and bicarbonate. At 6 and 24 months after diagnosis we collected data on weight, height, HbA 1c level, and insulin dose. Results: Factors at diagnosis that were associated with higher HbA1c levels at 6 months: female sex (p,0.05), lower SES (p,0.01), non-European ethnicity (p,0.01) and younger age (p,0.05). At 24 months, higher HbA1c was associated with lower SES (p,0.001), Pacific Island ethnicity (p,0.001), not living with both biological parents (p,0.05), and greater BMI SDS (p,0.05). A regression equation to predict HbA1c at 24 months was consequently developed. Conclusions: Deterioration in glycaemic control shortly after diagnosis in diabetic children is particularly marked in Pacific Island children and in those not living with both biological parents. Clinicians need to be aware of factors associated wit

The Endogenous Th17 Response in NO<inf>2</inf>-Promoted Allergic Airway Disease Is Dispensable for Airway Hyperresponsiveness and Distinct from Th17 Adoptive Transfer

Severe, glucocorticoid-resistant asthma comprises 5-7% of patients with asthma. IL-17 is a biomarker of severe asthma, and the adoptive transfer of Th17 cells in mice is sufficient to induce glucocorticoid-resistant allergic airway disease. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an environmental toxin that correlates with asthma severity, exacerbation, and risk of adverse outcomes. Mice that are allergically sensitized to the antigen ovalbumin by exposure to NO2 exhibit a mixed Th2/Th17 adaptive immune response and eosinophil and neutrophil recruitment to the airway following antigen challenge, a phenotype reminiscent of severe clinical asthma. Because IL-1 receptor (IL-1R) signaling is critical in the generation of the Th17 response in vivo, we hypothesized that the IL-1R/Th17 axis contributes to pulmonary inflammation and airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) in NO2-promoted allergic airway disease and manifests in glucocorticoid-resistant cytokine production. IL-17A neutralization at the time of antigen challenge or genetic deficiency in IL-1R resulted in decreased neutrophil recruitment to the airway following antigen challenge but did not protect against the development of AHR. Instead, IL-1R-/- mice developed exacerbated AHR compared to WT mice. Lung cells from NO2-allergically inflamed mice that were treated in vitro with dexamethasone (Dex) during antigen restimulation exhibited reduced Th17 cytokine production, whereas Th17 cytokine production by lung cells from recipient mice of in vitro Th17-polarized OTII T-cells was resistant to Dex. These results demonstrate that the IL-1R/Th17 axis does not contribute to AHR development in NO2-promoted allergic airway disease, that Th17 adoptive transfer does not necessarily reflect an endogenously-generated Th17 response, and that functions of Th17 responses are contingent on the experimental conditions in which they are generated. © 2013 Martin et al

Exploring Doctor–Patient Communication in Immigrant Australians with Type 2 Diabetes: A Qualitative Study

OBJECTIVE: The study explored the perceptions of Australian immigrants about their interactions with doctors regarding the diagnosis, treatment, and management of type 2 diabetes mellitus. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In-depth interviews were conducted with 30 men and women from Greek, Indian, Chinese, and Pacific Island backgrounds living in Melbourne, Australia, to elicit their perceptions of the management of diabetes and its impact. Participants were recruited through a convenience sample of general practitioners and community organizations providing support to people living with diabetes. Topics discussed included initial reaction to diagnosis, patient—health care provider communication, and the influence of message framing on the perception of the quality of the doctor–patient relationship. Transcripts were coded and analyzed by both authors. RESULTS: Numerous issues facilitate or inhibit constructive and positive relationships between doctors and patients with type 2 diabetes. Patients reported difficulty in absorbing all the information provided to them at early consultations, and experienced difficulty comprehending the practical aspects of management. Styles of communication and discourses of normalization and catastrophe influenced participants’ responses. CONCLUSION: Doctors face a complex task in encouraging behavioral change and adherence and establishing and maintaining a supportive relationship with patients. The timing and technical complexity of communication about diabetes, its management, and the prevention of complications require further attention

Altering the Motivational Function of Nicotine through Conditioning Processes

The collection of chapters in this 55th Nebraska Symposium on Motivation Volume clearly highlights that effective strategies for reducing compulsive tobacco use will require a multifaceted approach in which genetic, neurobiological, individual, and cultural factors are considered. It is difficult, if not impossible, to predict where the next important breakthrough will come from (Bevins & Bardo, 2004; Dethier, 1966; Laidler, 1998). Accordingly, further research that extends and challenges current theory and practice at each of these levels of analysis is needed. The continuing focus of our research program, and the topic of the present chapter, is on the role of Pavlovian conditioning processes involving nicotine. Theoretical and empirical approaches to nicotine dependence that include Pavlovian conditioning processes have lead to important advances in our understanding and treatment of chronic tobacco use (e.g., see Rose, Chapter 8 and Tiffany, Warthen, & Goedecker, Chapter 10 in current Volume). These approaches conceptualize the drug as an unconditioned stimulus (US) or reinforcer. That is, the pharmacological effects of the drug (e.g., reward, analgesia, psychomotor stimulation) enter into an association with stimuli that reliably co-occur with these effects (e.g., paraphernalia, situational cues). Later exposure to these conditioned stimuli (CSs) can evoke conditioned responses (CRs) that increase the chances an individual will seek drug. More recently, we have suggested that the interoceptive stimulus effects of nicotine might also serve as a CS for other appetitive non-drug outcomes (i.e., USs) and/or a stimulus that occasions whether other CS-US associations will or will not occur (i.e., an occasion setter or facilitator; see Bevins & Palmatier, 2004). We have further suggested that such an associative learning history could impact the tenacity of nicotine addiction—e.g., shorten the time between experimentation and dependence, increase the difficulty of quitting, make sustaining abstinence more difficult, etc. At the current time these suggestions are speculative. With this in mind, the present chapter will review the research in this area, as well as highlight some of its historical precursors and suggest some possible future directions for research. In doing so, hopefully the reader will gain an appreciation for how this approach might lead to further insight into how Pavlovian conditioning processes can alter the motivational function of nicotine in a manner that contributes to chronic tobacco use

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion