Development and internal validation of a multifactorial risk prediction model for gallbladder cancer in a high-incidence country

Since 2006, Chile has been implementing a gallbladder cancer (GBC) prevention program based on prophylactic cholecystectomy for gallstone patients aged 35 to 49 years. The effectiveness of this prevention program has not yet been comprehensively evaluated. We conducted a retrospective study of 473 Chilean GBC patients and 2137 population-based controls to develop and internally validate three GBC risk prediction models. The Baseline Model accounted for gallstones while adjusting for sex and birth year. Enhanced Model I also included the non-genetic risk factors: body mass index, educational level, Mapuche surnames, number of children and family history of GBC. Enhanced Model II further included Mapuche ancestry and the genotype for rs17209837. Multiple Cox regression was applied to assess the predictive performance, quantified by the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PRC) and the number of cholecystectomies needed (NCN) to prevent one case of GBC at age 70 years. The AUC-PRC for the Baseline Model (0.44%, 95%CI 0.42-0.46) increased by 0.22 (95%CI 0.15-0.29) when non-genetic factors were included, and by 0.25 (95%CI 0.20-0.30) when incorporating non-genetic and genetic factors. The overall NCN for Chileans with gallstones (115, 95%CI 104-131) decreased to 92 (95%CI 60-128) for Chileans with a higher risk than the median according to Enhanced Model I, and to 80 (95%CI 59-110) according to Enhanced Model II. In conclusion, age, sex and gallstones are strong risk factors for GBC, but consideration of other non-genetic factors and individual genotype data improves risk prediction and may optimize allocation of financial resources and surgical capacity.Fil: Boekstegers, Felix. Ruprecht Karls Universitat Heidelberg; AlemaniaFil: Scherer, Dominique. Ruprecht Karls Universitat Heidelberg; AlemaniaFil: Barahona Ponce, Carol. Ruprecht Karls Universitat Heidelberg; AlemaniaFil: Marcelain, Katherine. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Gárate Calderón, Valentina. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Waldenberger, Melanie. No especifíca;Fil: Morales, Erik. Universidad Católica de Maule; ChileFil: Rojas, Armando. Universidad Católica de Maule; ChileFil: Munoz, César. Universidad Católica de Maule; ChileFil: Retamales, Javier. Instituto Nacional del Cáncer; ChileFil: de Toro, Gonzalo. Universidad Austral de Chile; ChileFil: Barajas, Olga. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Rivera, María Teresa. Hospital del Salvador; ChileFil: Cortés, Analía. Hospital del Salvador; ChileFil: Loader, Denisse. Hospital Padre Hurtado; ChileFil: Saavedra, Javiera. Hospital Padre Hurtado; ChileFil: Gutiérrez, Lorena. Hospital San Juan de Dios; ChileFil: Ortega, Alejandro. Hospital Regional; ChileFil: Bertrán, Maria Enriqueta. Hospital Base de Valdivia; ChileFil: Bartolotti, Leonardo. Hospital Base de Valdivia; ChileFil: Gabler, Fernando. Hospital Clínico San Borja Arriarán; ChileFil: Campos, Mónica. Hospital Clínico San Borja Arriarán; ChileFil: Alvarado, Juan. Hospital Regional de Concepción - Dr. Guillermo Grant Benavente; ChileFil: Moisán, Fabricio. Hospital Regional de Concepción - Dr. Guillermo Grant Benavente; ChileFil: Spencer, Loreto. Hospital Regional de Concepción - Dr. Guillermo Grant Benavente; ChileFil: Nervi, Bruno. No especifíca;Fil: Carvajal Hausdorf, Daniel. Universidad del Desarrollo; ChileFil: Losada, Héctor. Universidad de La Frontera; ChileFil: Almau, Mauricio. Hospital de Rancagua; ChileFil: Fernández, Plinio. Hospital de Rancagua; ChileFil: Olloquequi, Jordi. Universidad de Barcelona; EspañaFil: Fuentes Guajardo, Macarena. Universidad de Tarapacá; ChileFil: Gonzalez-Jose, Rolando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Instituto Patagónico de Ciencias Sociales y Humanas; ArgentinaFil: Bortolini, Maria Cátira. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Acuña Alonzo, Victor. No especifíca;Fil: Gallo, Carla. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Ruiz-Linares, Andres. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino UnidoFil: Rothhammer, Francisco. Universidad de Tarapacá; ChileFil: Lorenzo Bermejo, Justo. Ruprecht Karls Universitat Heidelberg; Alemani

Mendelian Randomization Analysis of the Relationship Between Native American Ancestry and Gallbladder Cancer Risk

Background A strong association between the proportion of Native American ancestry and the risk of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has been reported in observational studies. Chileans show the highest incidence of GBC worldwide, and the Mapuche are the largest Native American people in Chile. We set out to investigate the causal association between Native American Mapuche ancestry and GBC risk, and the possible mediating effects of gallstone disease and body mass index (BMI) on this association. Methods Markers of Mapuche ancestry were selected based on the informativeness for assignment measure and then used as instrumental variables in two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) analyses and complementary sensitivity analyses. Result We found evidence of a causal effect of Mapuche ancestry on GBC risk (inverse variance-weighted (IVW) risk increase of 0.8% for every 1% increase in Mapuche ancestry proportion, 95% CI 0.4% to 1.2%, p = 6.6×10-5). Mapuche ancestry was also causally linked to gallstone disease (IVW risk increase of 3.6% per 1% increase in Mapuche proportion, 95% CI 3.1% to 4.0%, p = 1.0×10-59), suggesting a mediating effect of gallstones in the relationship between Mapuche ancestry and GBC. In contrast, the proportion of Mapuche ancestry showed a negative causal effect on BMI (IVW estimate -0.006 kg/m2 per 1% increase in Mapuche proportion, 95% CI -0.009 to -0.003, p = 4.4×10-5). Conclusions The results presented here may have significant implications for GBC prevention and are important for future admixture mapping studies. Given that the association between Mapuche ancestry and GBC risk previously noted in observational studies appears to be causal, primary and secondary prevention strategies that take into account the individual proportion of Mapuche ancestry could be particularly efficient

ESCAPE pain trial - The effects of Curcumin in pain relief in women diagnosed with primary dysmenorrhea: A triple blinded, placebo-controlled, phase II, randomized clinical trial protocol

ntroduction: Primary dysmenorrhea affects many women, being a major cause of absenteeism and reduced productivity at work and at school. Although non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are a good treatment option, up to 18% of women show no response or present allergic reactions and adverse events. Curcumin has antispasmodic, antinociceptive and both specific and nonspecific anti-inflammatory effects, with good tolerability and safety. To date, no previous trial involving curcumin and dysmenorrhea pain has been performed. Therefore, our main goal is to assess the efficacy of curcumin for pain relief among women with primary dysmenorrhea, along with determining curcumin\u2019s adverse effects and tolerability profile. Methods:A phase II, single-center, randomized, triple-blinded, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, superiority trial to evaluate the effect of curcumin (500 mg/12h) in pain reduction in women (18 to 35-year-old) with primary dysmenorrhea. A first cycle will be used for a passive, observational run-in phase. A sample of 108 participants (54 per group) is necessary to detect a 30% difference in pain sensitivity between groups assessed by visual analogue scale (VAS). Secondary outcomes include side effects, Cox Menstrual Symptom Scale (CMSS), and use of rescue drugs for pain relief. Discussion: Clinical evidence has shown analgesic and anti-inflammatory effects of curcumin and in view of dysmenorrhea\u2019s physiopathology being related to those mechanisms targeted by curcumin, we hypothesize its use could represent an innovative and effective therapy to reduce the severity of this disease and its symptoms.Keywords:primary dysmenorrhea, Curcumin, pain relief, Visual Analogue Scale, Cox Menstrual Sympto

Identification of circulating lncRNAs associated with gallbladder cancer risk by tissue-based preselection, cis-eQTL validation, and analysis of association with genotype-based expression.

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) play key roles in cell processes and are good candi-dates for cancer risk prediction. Few studies have investigated the association between individual genotypes and lncRNA expression. Here we integrate three separate datasets with information on lncRNA expression only, both lncRNA expression and genotype, and genotype information only to identify circulating lncRNAs associated with the risk of gallbladder cancer (GBC) using robust linear and logistic regression techniques. In the first dataset, we preselect lncRNAs based on expression changes along the sequence “gallstones → dysplasia → GBC”. In the second dataset, we validate associations between genetic variants and serum expression levels of the preselected lncR-NAs (cis-lncRNA-eQTLs) and build lncRNA expression prediction models. In the third dataset, we predict serum lncRNA expression based on individual genotypes and assess the association between genotype-based expression and GBC risk. AC084082.3 and LINC00662 showed increasing expression levels (p-value = 0.009), while C22orf34 expression decreased in the sequence from gallstones to GBC (p-value = 0.04). We identified and validated two cis-LINC00662-eQTLs (r2 = 0.26) and three cis-C22orf34-eQTLs (r2 = 0.24). Only LINC00662 showed a genotyped-based serum expression associated with GBC risk (OR = 1.25 per log2 expression unit, 95% CI 1.04–1.52, p-value = 0.02). Our results suggest that preselection of lncRNAs based on tissue samples and exploitation of cis-lncRNA-eQTLs may facilitate the identification of circulating noncoding RNAs linked to cancer risk