Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long-term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Thalassaemia in Vanuatu, South-West Pacific: frequency and haematological phenotypes in young children

The archipelago of Vanuatu situated in the South-West Pacific has a high frequency of ?+ thalassaemia and additionally on some of the islands there is a high frequency of ? thalassaemia. As part of a large cohort study to investigate the clinical effect of thalassaemia on malaria on the islands of Espiritu Santo and Maewo in Vanuatu, the gene frequencies of the thalassaemias were determined and blood counts were performed on a cohort of infants from birth to 3 years. The haematological phenotypes of the different thalassaemic genotypes are compared, providing a detailed description of the clinical manifestations of ?+ thalassaemia during early development. In addition, crosssectional surveys of the population of the two islands were performed to establish the frequency of thalassaemia and other red cell polymorphisms and their geographical distribution.<br/