Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Contributions of high- and low-quality patches to a metapopulation with stochastic disturbance

© The Author(s), 2010. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Ecology 5 (2012): 167-179, doi:10.1007/s12080-010-0106-9.Studies of time-invariant matrix metapopulation models indicate that metapopulation growth rate is usually more sensitive to the vital rates of individuals in high-quality (i.e., good) patches than in low-quality (i.e., bad) patches. This suggests that, given a choice, management efforts should focus on good rather than bad patches. Here, we examine the sensitivity of metapopulation growth rate for a two-patch matrix metapopulation model with and without stochastic disturbance and found cases where managers can more efficiently increase metapopulation growth rate by focusing efforts on the bad patch. In our model, net reproductive rate differs between the two patches so that in the absence of dispersal, one patch is high quality and the other low quality. Disturbance, when present, reduces net reproductive rate with equal frequency and intensity in both patches. The stochastic disturbance model gives qualitatively similar results to the deterministic model. In most cases, metapopulation growth rate was elastic to changes in net reproductive rate of individuals in the good patch than the bad patch. However, when the majority of individuals are located in the bad patch, metapopulation growth rate can be most elastic to net reproductive rate in the bad patch. We expand the model to include two stages and parameterize the patches using data for the softshell clam, Mya arenaria. With a two-stage demographic model, the elasticities of metapopulation growth rate to parameters in the bad patch increase, while elasticities to the same parameters in the good patch decrease. Metapopulation growth rate is most elastic to adult survival in the population of the good patch for all scenarios we examine. If the majority of the metapopulation is located in the bad patch, the elasticity to parameters of that population increase but do not surpass elasticity to parameters in the good patch. This model can be expanded to include additional patches, multiple stages, stochastic dispersal, and complex demography.Financial support was provided by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Academic Programs Office; National Science Foundation grants OCE-0326734, OCE- 0215905, OCE-0349177, DEB-0235692, DEB-0816514, DMS- 0532378, OCE-1031256, and ATM-0428122; and by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Sea Grant College Program Office, Department of Commerce, under Grant No. NA86RG0075 (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Sea Grant Project No. R/0-32), and Grant No. NA16RG2273 (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Sea Grant Project No. R/0-35)

The Association between Mental Health and Violence among a Nationally Representative Sample of College Students from the United States

Objectives Recent violent attacks on college campuses in the United States have sparked discussions regarding the prevalence of psychiatric disorders and the perpetration of violence among college students. While previous studies have examined the potential association between mental health problems and violent behavior, the overall pattern of findings flowing from this literature remain mixed and no previous studies have examined such associations among college students. Methods The current study makes use of a nationally representative sample of 3,929 college students from the National Epidemiologic Study on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) to examine the prevalence of seven violent behaviors and 19 psychiatric disorder diagnoses tapping mood, anxiety, personality, and substance use disorders. Associations between individual and composite psychiatric disorder diagnoses and violent behaviors were also examined. Additional analyses were adjusted for the comorbidity of multiple psychiatric diagnoses. Results The results revealed that college students were less likely to have engaged in violent behavior relative to the non-student sample, but a substantial portion of college students had engaged in violent behavior. Age- and sex-standardized prevalence rates indicated that more than 21% of college students reported at least one violent act. In addition, more than 36% of college students had at least one diagnosable psychiatric disorder. Finally, the prevalence of one or more psychiatric disorders significantly increased the odds of violent behavior within the college student sample. Conclusions These findings indicate that violence and psychiatric disorders are prevalent on college campuses in the United States, though perhaps less so than in the general population. In addition, college students who have diagnosable psychiatric disorders are significantly more likely to engage in various forms of violent behavior

Design and implementation of a generalized laboratory data model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Investigators in the biological sciences continue to exploit laboratory automation methods and have dramatically increased the rates at which they can generate data. In many environments, the methods themselves also evolve in a rapid and fluid manner. These observations point to the importance of robust information management systems in the modern laboratory. Designing and implementing such systems is non-trivial and it appears that in many cases a database project ultimately proves unserviceable.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We describe a general modeling framework for laboratory data and its implementation as an information management system. The model utilizes several abstraction techniques, focusing especially on the concepts of inheritance and meta-data. Traditional approaches commingle event-oriented data with regular entity data in <it>ad hoc </it>ways. Instead, we define distinct regular entity and event schemas, but fully integrate these via a standardized interface. The design allows straightforward definition of a "processing pipeline" as a sequence of events, obviating the need for separate workflow management systems. A layer above the event-oriented schema integrates events into a workflow by defining "processing directives", which act as automated project managers of items in the system. Directives can be added or modified in an almost trivial fashion, i.e., without the need for schema modification or re-certification of applications. Association between regular entities and events is managed via simple "many-to-many" relationships. We describe the programming interface, as well as techniques for handling input/output, process control, and state transitions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The implementation described here has served as the Washington University Genome Sequencing Center's primary information system for several years. It handles all transactions underlying a throughput rate of about 9 million sequencing reactions of various kinds per month and has handily weathered a number of major pipeline reconfigurations. The basic data model can be readily adapted to other high-volume processing environments.</p

Why Are There Social Gradients in Preventative Health Behavior? A Perspective from Behavioral Ecology

Background: Within affluent populations, there are marked socioeconomic gradients in health behavior, with people of lower socioeconomic position smoking more, exercising less, having poorer diets, complying less well with therapy, using medical services less, ignoring health and safety advice more, and being less health-conscious overall, than their more affluent peers. Whilst the proximate mechanisms underlying these behavioral differences have been investigated, the ultimate causes have not. Methodology/Principal Findings: This paper presents a theoretical model of why socioeconomic gradients in health behavior might be found. I conjecture that lower socioeconomic position is associated with greater exposure to extrinsic mortality risks (that is, risks that cannot be mitigated through behavior), and that health behavior competes for people’s time and energy against other activities which contribute to their fitness. Under these two assumptions, the model shows that the optimal amount of health behavior to perform is indeed less for people of lower socioeconomic position. Conclusions/Significance: The model predicts an exacerbatory dynamic of poverty, whereby the greater exposure of poor people to unavoidable harms engenders a disinvestment in health behavior, resulting in a final inequality in health outcomes which is greater than the initial inequality in material conditions. I discuss the assumptions of the model, and it

Evaluating the Potential Effectiveness of Compensatory Mitigation Strategies for Marine Bycatch

Conservationists are continually seeking new strategies to reverse population declines and safeguard against species extinctions. Here we evaluate the potential efficacy of a recently proposed approach to offset a major anthropogenic threat to many marine vertebrates: incidental bycatch in commercial fisheries operations. This new approach, compensatory mitigation for marine bycatch (CMMB), is conceived as a way to replace or reduce mandated restrictions on fishing activities with compensatory activities (e.g., removal of introduced predators from islands) funded by levies placed on fishers. While efforts are underway to bring CMMB into policy discussions, to date there has not been a detailed evaluation of CMMB's potential as a conservation tool, and in particular, a list of necessary and sufficient criteria that CMMB must meet to be an effective conservation strategy. Here we present a list of criteria to assess CMMB that are tied to critical ecological aspects of the species targeted for conservation, the range of possible mitigation activities, and the multi-species impact of fisheries bycatch. We conclude that, overall, CMMB has little potential for benefit and a substantial potential for harm if implemented to solve most fisheries bycatch problems. In particular, CMMB is likely to be effective only when applied to short-lived and highly-fecund species (not the characteristics of most bycatch-impacted species) and to fisheries that take few non-target species, and especially few non-seabird species (not the characteristics of most fisheries). Thus, CMMB appears to have limited application and should only be implemented after rigorous appraisal on a case-specific basis; otherwise it has the potential to accelerate declines of marine species currently threatened by fisheries bycatch

Sterility and Gene Expression in Hybrid Males of Xenopus laevis and X. muelleri

BACKGROUND: Reproductive isolation is a defining characteristic of populations that represent unique biological species, yet we know very little about the gene expression basis for reproductive isolation. The advent of powerful molecular biology tools provides the ability to identify genes involved in reproductive isolation and focuses attention on the molecular mechanisms that separate biological species. Herein we quantify the sterility pattern of hybrid males in African Clawed Frogs (Xenopus) and apply microarray analysis of the expression pattern found in testes to identify genes that are misexpressed in hybrid males relative to their two parental species (Xenopus laevis and X. muelleri). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Phenotypic characteristics of spermatogenesis in sterile male hybrids (X. laevis x X. muelleri) were examined using a novel sperm assay that allowed quantification of live, dead, and undifferentiated sperm cells, the number of motile vs. immotile sperm, and sperm morphology. Hybrids exhibited a dramatically lower abundance of mature sperm relative to the parental species. Hybrid spermatozoa were larger in size and accompanied by numerous undifferentiated sperm cells. Microarray analysis of gene expression in testes was combined with a correction for sequence divergence derived from genomic hybridizations to identify candidate genes involved in the sterility phenotype. Analysis of the transcriptome revealed a striking asymmetric pattern of misexpression. There were only about 140 genes misexpressed in hybrids compared to X. laevis but nearly 4,000 genes misexpressed in hybrids compared to X. muelleri. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide an important correlation between phenotypic characteristics of sperm and gene expression in sterile hybrid males. The broad pattern of gene misexpression suggests intriguing mechanisms creating the dominance pattern of the X. laevis genome in hybrids. These findings significantly contribute to growing evidence for allelic dominance in hybrids and have implications for the mechanism of species differentiation at the transcriptome level