Poverty and the rural non-farm economy in Armenia, Georgia and Romania: a synthesis of findings (NRI report no. 2773)

The focus of this paper is on rural non-farm livelihoods in economies in transition. It looks at key factors affecting the ability and motivation of rural dwellers to become involved in the non-farm economy. The intended outputs of this study are: (i) to improve understanding of the dynamics of the RNFE in providing employment and income diversification opportunities in Armenia, Georgia and Romania; and (ii) to promote mechanisms for integrating research results into relevant policy processes

Slavery, statehood, and economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Although Africa's indigenous systems of slavery have been extensively described in the historical literature, comparatively little attention has been paid to analyzing its long term impact on economic and political development. Based on data collected from anthropological records we conduct an econometric analysis. We find that indigenous slavery is robustly and negatively associated with current income levels, but not with income levels immediately after independence. We explore one channel of transmission from indigenous slavery to income growth consistent with this changing effect over time and find evidence that indigenous slavery impeded the development of capable and accountable states in Africa. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

A new graph and scoring system simplified analysis of changing states: disease remissions in a rheumatoid arthritis clinical trial

Background: In the setting of multiple remission and relapse periods of a chronic disease, simple endpoint analysis does not fully capture all relevant information, and we need methods to additionally describe both the duration of remission as well as the interruptions in this desired state. Probably the two-state continuous Markov process model comprises the best mathematical approach to data analysis. However, this approach is complex and not intuitive to clinicians. In this paper we propose a simple scoring system and a graph that can enhance the information about the remission experience in a trial or cohort study. Methods: The continuity rewarded ('ConRew') score sums up periods in remission, and rewards extended periods by placing more value on uninterrupted periods than on interrupted periods. The 'patient vector graph' attempts to plot each patient's remission experience over time as a horizontal line (the 'vector') that is visible when the patient is in remission, but interrupted whenever relapse occurs. In this way a pattern is formed that conveys the number of patients experiencing remission, their individual total duration and interruptions, and time when these occur. Results: In a dataset of a randomized trial in early rheumatoid arthritis, the graph clearly showed both early and late benefit of one group over the other. The scoring system demonstrated the main benefit was in the number of remission periods, not in their 'uninterruptedness'. Conclusion: Both approaches proved feasible and added extra information. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Predicting the ‘Global Financial Crisis’: post-Keynesian macroeconomics

The 'Global Financial Crisis' is widely acknowledged to be a tail event for neoclassical economics (Stevens, 2008), but it was an expected outcome for a range of non-neoclassical economists from the Austrian and post-Keynesian schools. This article provides a survey of the post-Keynesian approach for readers who are not familiar with this literature. It will briefly cover the history of how post-Keynesian economics came to diverge so much from the neoclassical mainstream, and focus on post-Keynesian macroeconomics today and its alternative indicators of macroeconomic turbulence