Rubidium and Lead Abundances in Giant Stars of the Globular Clusters M4 and M5

We present measurements of the neutron-capture elements Rb and Pb for bright giants in the globular clusters M4 and M5. The clusters are of similar metallicity ([Fe/H] ≃ -1.2), but M4 is decidedly s-process enriched relative to M5: [Ba/Fe] = +0.6 for M

Exomoon simulations

We introduce and describe our newly developed code that simulates light curves and radial velocity curves for arbitrary transiting exoplanets with a satellite. The most important feature of the program is the calculation of radial velocity curves and the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect in such systems. We discuss the possibilities for detecting the exomoons taking the abilities of Extremely Large Telescopes into account. We show that satellites may be detected also by their RM effect in the future, probably using less accurate measurements than promised by the current instrumental developments. Thus, RM effect will be an important observational tool in the exploration of exomoons.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures with 9 figure panels, accepted by EM&

The discontinuous nature of chromospheric activity evolution

Chromospheric activity has been thought to decay smoothly with time and, hence, to be a viable age indicator. Measurements in solar type stars in open clusters seem to point to a different conclusion: chromospheric activity undergoes a fast transition from Hyades level to that of the Sun after about 1 Gyr of main--sequence lifetime and any decaying trend before or after this transition must be much less significant than the short term variations.Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, to be published in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

New Insights into White-Light Flare Emission from Radiative-Hydrodynamic Modeling of a Chromospheric Condensation

(abridged) The heating mechanism at high densities during M dwarf flares is poorly understood. Spectra of M dwarf flares in the optical and near-ultraviolet wavelength regimes have revealed three continuum components during the impulsive phase: 1) an energetically dominant blackbody component with a color temperature of T $\sim$ 10,000 K in the blue-optical, 2) a smaller amount of Balmer continuum emission in the near-ultraviolet at lambda $<$ 3646 Angstroms and 3) an apparent pseudo-continuum of blended high-order Balmer lines. These properties are not reproduced by models that employ a typical "solar-type" flare heating level in nonthermal electrons, and therefore our understanding of these spectra is limited to a phenomenological interpretation. We present a new 1D radiative-hydrodynamic model of an M dwarf flare from precipitating nonthermal electrons with a large energy flux of $10^{13}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. The simulation produces bright continuum emission from a dense, hot chromospheric condensation. For the first time, the observed color temperature and Balmer jump ratio are produced self-consistently in a radiative-hydrodynamic flare model. We find that a T $\sim$ 10,000 K blackbody-like continuum component and a small Balmer jump ratio result from optically thick Balmer and Paschen recombination radiation, and thus the properties of the flux spectrum are caused by blue light escaping over a larger physical depth range compared to red and near-ultraviolet light. To model the near-ultraviolet pseudo-continuum previously attributed to overlapping Balmer lines, we include the extra Balmer continuum opacity from Landau-Zener transitions that result from merged, high order energy levels of hydrogen in a dense, partially ionized atmosphere. This reveals a new diagnostic of ambient charge density in the densest regions of the atmosphere that are heated during dMe and solar flares.Comment: 50 pages, 2 tables, 13 figures. Accepted for publication in the Solar Physics Topical Issue, "Solar and Stellar Flares". Version 2 (June 22, 2015): updated to include comments by Guest Editor. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0708-

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Designing bifunctional alkene isomerization catalysts using predictive modelling

Controlling the isomerization of alkenes is important for the manufacturing of fuel additives, fine-chemicals and pharmaceuticals. But even if isomerization seems to be a simple unimolecular process, the factors that govern catalyst performance are far from clear. Here we present a set of models that describe selectivity and activity, enabling the rational design and synthesis of alkene isomerization catalysts. The models are based on simple molecular descriptors, with a low computational cost, and are tested and validated on a set of eleven known Ru-imidazol-phosphine complexes and two new ones. Despite their simplicity, these models show good predictive power, with R2 values of 0.60–0.85. Using a combination of principal components analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression, we construct a “catalyst map”, that captures trends in reactivity and selectivity as a function of electrostatic charge on the N* atom, EHOMO, polar surface area and the optimal mass substituents on P/distance Ru–P ratio. In addition to indicating “good regions” in the catalyst space, these models also give insight into mechanistic steps. For example, we find that the electrostatic charge on N*, EHOMO and polar surface area are crucial in the rate-limiting step, whereas the optimal mass of substituents on P/distance Ru–P is correlated with the product selectivity

Modular Reasoning in Isabelle

The concept of locales for Isabelle enables local definition and assumption for interactive mechanical proofs. Furthermore, dependent types are constructed in Isabelle/HOL for first class representation of structure. These two concepts are introduced briefly. Although each of them has proved useful in itself, their real power lies in combination. This paper illustrates by examples from abstract algebra how this combination works and argues that it enables modular reasoning