The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 297 (2010): 299-310, doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.08.009.A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16–17 °C between 600 and 950 CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950–1100 CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000–1400 CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000 CE with temperature minima of ~ 8 to 9 °C about 1150, 1350, and 1650–1800 CE, and intervening warm periods (14–15 °C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600 CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200 CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800 CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean–atmosphere processes

Application of a risk-management framework for integration of stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in clinical trials

Stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) are a potential predictive biomarker for immunotherapy response in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). To incorporate sTILs into clinical trials and diagnostics, reliable assessment is essential. In this review, we propose a new concept, namely the implementation of a risk-management framework that enables the use of sTILs as a stratification factor in clinical trials. We present the design of a biomarker risk-mitigation workflow that can be applied to any biomarker incorporation in clinical trials. We demonstrate the implementation of this concept using sTILs as an integral biomarker in a single-center phase II immunotherapy trial for metastatic TNBC (TONIC trial, NCT02499367), using this workflow to mitigate risks of suboptimal inclusion of sTILs in this specific trial. In this review, we demonstrate that a web-based scoring platform can mitigate potential risk factors when including sTILs in clinical trials, and we argue that this framework can be applied for any future biomarker-driven clinical trial setting

Arctic vegetation, temperature, and hydrology during Early Eocene transient global warming events

Early Eocene global climate was warmer than much of the Cenozoic and was punctuated by a series of transient warming events or ‘hyperthermals’ associated with carbon isotope excursions when temperature increased by 4–8 °C. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2, 53.5 Ma) hyperthermals were of short duration (<200 kyr) and dramatically restructured terrestrial vegetation and mammalian faunas at mid-latitudes. Data on the character and magnitude of change in terrestrial vegetation and climate during and after the PETM and ETM2 at high northern latitudes, however, are limited to a small number of stratigraphically restricted records. The Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) marine sediment core from the Lomonosov Ridge in the Arctic Basin provides a stratigraphically expanded early Eocene record of Arctic terrestrial vegetation and climates. Using pollen/spore assemblages, palynofacies data, bioclimatic analyses (Nearest Living Relative, or NLR), and lipid biomarker paleothermometry, we present evidence for expansion of mesothermal (Mean Annual Temperatures 13–20 °C) forests to the Arctic during the PETM and ETM2. Our data indicate that PETM mean annual temperatures were ~2° to 3.5 °C warmer than those of the Late Paleocene. Mean winter temperatures in the PETM reached ≥5 °C (~2 °C warmer than the late Paleocene), based on pollen-based bioclimatic reconstructions and the presence of palm and Bombacoideae pollen. Increased runoff of water and nutrients to the ocean during both hyperthermals resulted in greater salinity stratification and hypoxia/anoxia, based on marked increases in concentration of massive Amorphous Organic Matter (AOM) and dominance of low-salinity dinocysts. During the PETM recovery, taxodioid Cupressaceae-dominated swamp forests were important elements of the landscape, representing intermediate climate conditions between the early Eocene hyperthermals and background conditions of the late Paleocene

Arctic vegetation, temperature, and hydrology during Early Eocene transient global warming events

Early Eocene global climate was warmer than much of the Cenozoic and was punctuated by a series of transient warming events or ‘hyperthermals’ associated with carbon isotope excursions when temperature increased by 4–8 °C. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2, 53.5 Ma) hyperthermals were of short duration (<200 kyr) and dramatically restructured terrestrial vegetation and mammalian faunas at mid-latitudes. Data on the character and magnitude of change in terrestrial vegetation and climate during and after the PETM and ETM2 at high northern latitudes, however, are limited to a small number of stratigraphically restricted records. The Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) marine sediment core from the Lomonosov Ridge in the Arctic Basin provides a stratigraphically expanded early Eocene record of Arctic terrestrial vegetation and climates. Using pollen/spore assemblages, palynofacies data, bioclimatic analyses (Nearest Living Relative, or NLR), and lipid biomarker paleothermometry, we present evidence for expansion of mesothermal (Mean Annual Temperatures 13–20 °C) forests to the Arctic during the PETM and ETM2. Our data indicate that PETM mean annual temperatures were ~2° to 3.5 °C warmer than those of the Late Paleocene. Mean winter temperatures in the PETM reached ≥5 °C (~2 °C warmer than the late Paleocene), based on pollen-based bioclimatic reconstructions and the presence of palm and Bombacoideae pollen. Increased runoff of water and nutrients to the ocean during both hyperthermals resulted in greater salinity stratification and hypoxia/anoxia, based on marked increases in concentration of massive Amorphous Organic Matter (AOM) and dominance of low-salinity dinocysts. During the PETM recovery, taxodioid Cupressaceae-dominated swamp forests were important elements of the landscape, representing intermediate climate conditions between the early Eocene hyperthermals and background conditions of the late Paleocene

Arctic vegetation, temperature, and hydrology during Early Eocene transient global warming events

Early Eocene global climate was warmer than much of the Cenozoic and was punctuated by a series of transient warming events or ‘hyperthermals’ associated with carbon isotope excursions when temperature increased by 4–8 °C. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~55 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2, 53.5 Ma) hyperthermals were of short duration (<200 kyr) and dramatically restructured terrestrial vegetation and mammalian faunas at mid-latitudes. Data on the character and magnitude of change in terrestrial vegetation and climate during and after the PETM and ETM2 at high northern latitudes, however, are limited to a small number of stratigraphically restricted records. The Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) marine sediment core from the Lomonosov Ridge in the Arctic Basin provides a stratigraphically expanded early Eocene record of Arctic terrestrial vegetation and climates. Using pollen/spore assemblages, palynofacies data, bioclimatic analyses (Nearest Living Relative, or NLR), and lipid biomarker paleothermometry, we present evidence for expansion of mesothermal (Mean Annual Temperatures 13–20 °C) forests to the Arctic during the PETM and ETM2. Our data indicate that PETM mean annual temperatures were ~2° to 3.5 °C warmer than those of the Late Paleocene. Mean winter temperatures in the PETM reached ≥5 °C (~2 °C warmer than the late Paleocene), based on pollen-based bioclimatic reconstructions and the presence of palm and Bombacoideae pollen. Increased runoff of water and nutrients to the ocean during both hyperthermals resulted in greater salinity stratification and hypoxia/anoxia, based on marked increases in concentration of massive Amorphous Organic Matter (AOM) and dominance of low-salinity dinocysts. During the PETM recovery, taxodioid Cupressaceae-dominated swamp forests were important elements of the landscape, representing intermediate climate conditions between the early Eocene hyperthermals and background conditions of the late Paleocene