Development of a risk assessment framework to predict invasive species establishment for multiple taxonomic groups and vectors of introduction

A thorough assessment of aquatic nonindigenous species’ risk facilitates successful monitoring and prevention activities. However, species- and vector-specific information is often limited and difficult to synthesize across a single risk framework. To address this need, we developed an assessment framework capable of estimating the potential for introduction, establishment, and impact by aquatic nonindigenous species from diverse spatial origins and taxonomic classification, in novel environments. Our model builds on previous approaches, while taking on a new perspective for evaluation across species, vectors and stages to overcome the limitations imposed by single species and single vector assessments. We applied this globally-relevant framework to the Laurentian Great Lakes to determine its ability to evaluate risk across multiple taxa and vectors. This case study included 67 aquatic species, identified as “watchlist species” in NOAA’s Great Lakes Aquatic Nonindigenous Species Information System (GLANSIS). Vectors included shipping, hitchhiking/fouling, unauthorized intentional release, escape from recreational or commercial culture, and natural dispersal. We identified potential invaders from every continent but Africa and Antarctica. Of the 67 species, more than a fifth (21%) had a high potential for introduction and greater than 60% had a moderate potential for introduction. Shipping (72%) was the most common potential vector of introduction, followed by unauthorized intentional release (25%), hitchhiking/fouling (21%), dispersal (19%), stocking/planting/escape from recreational culture (13%), and escape from commercial culture. The ability to assess a variety of aquatic nonindigenous species from an array of potential vectors using a consistent methodology is essential for comparing likelihoods of introduction, establishment, and impact. The straightforward design of this framework will allow its application and modification according to policy priorities by natural resource managers. The ability to use a variety of information sources facilitates completion of assessments despite the paucity of data that often plagues aquatic nonindigenous species management

Understanding acceptable level of risk: Incorporating the economic cost of under-managing invasive species

Management of nonindigenous species includes prevention, early detection and rapid response and control. Early detection and rapid response depend on prioritizing and monitoring sites at risk for arrival or secondary spread of nonindigenous species. Such monitoring efforts require sufficient biosecurity budgets to be effective and meet management or policy directives for reduced risk of introduction. Such consideration of risk reduction is rarely considered, however. Here, we review the concepts of acceptable level of risk (ALOR) and associated costs with respect to nonindigenous species and present a framework for aligning risk reduction priorities with available biosecurity resources. We conclude that available biosecurity resources may be insufficient to attain stated and desired risk reduction. This outcome highlights the need to consider policy and management directives when beginning a biosecurity program to determine the feasibility of risk reduction goals, given available resources

A theoretical framework for the ecological role of three-dimensional structural diversity

The three-dimensional (3D) physical aspects of ecosystems are intrinsically linked to ecological processes. Here, we describe structural diversity as the volumetric capacity, physical arrangement, and identity/traits of biotic components in an ecosystem. Despite being recognized in earlier ecological studies, structural diversity has been largely overlooked due to an absence of not only a theoretical foundation but also effective measurement tools. We present a framework for conceptualizing structural diversity and suggest how to facilitate its broader incorporation into ecological theory and practice. We also discuss how the interplay of genetic and environmental factors underpin structural diversity, allowing for a potentially unique synthetic approach to explain ecosystem function. A practical approach is then proposed in which scientists can test the ecological role of structural diversity at biotic–environmental interfaces, along with examples of structural diversity research and future directions for integrating structural diversity into ecological theory and management across scales

Fire decline in dry tropical ecosystems enhances decadal land carbon sink

The terrestrial carbon sink has significantly increased in the past decades, but the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The current synthesis of process-based estimates of land and ocean sinks requires an additional sink of 0.6 PgC yr⁻¹ in the last decade to explain the observed airborne fraction. A concurrent global fire decline was observed in association with tropical agriculture expansion and landscape fragmentation. Here we show that a decline of 0.2 ± 0.1 PgC yr⁻¹ in fire emissions during 2008–2014 relative to 2001–2007 also induced an additional carbon sink enhancement of 0.4 ± 0.2 PgC yr⁻¹ attributable to carbon cycle feedbacks, amounting to a combined sink increase comparable to the 0.6 PgC yr⁻¹ budget imbalance. Our results suggest that the indirect effects of fire, in addition to the direct emissions, is an overlooked mechanism for explaining decadal-scale changes in the land carbon sink and highlight the importance of fire management in climate mitigation

Initial Public Offerings and the Firm Location

The firm geographic location matters in IPOs because investors have a strong preference for newly issued local stocks and provide abnormal demand in local offerings. Using equity holdings data for more than 53,000 households, we show the probability to participate to the stock market and the proportion of the equity wealth is abnormally increasing with the volume of the IPOs inside the investor region. Upon nearly the universe of the 167,515 going public and private domestic manufacturing firms, we provide consistent evidence that the isolated private firms have higher probability to go public, larger IPO underpricing cross-sectional average and volatility, and less pronounced long-run under-performance. Similar but opposite evidence holds for the local concentration of the investor wealth. These effects are economically relevant and robust to local delistings, IPO market timing, agglomeration economies, firm location endogeneity, self-selection bias, and information asymmetries, among others. Findings suggest IPO waves have a strong geographic component, highlight that underwriters significantly under-estimate the local demand component thus leaving unexpected money on the table, and support state-contingent but constant investor propensity for risk

Understanding Acceptable Level of Risk: Incorporating the Economic Cost of Under-Managing Invasive Species

Management of nonindigenous species includes prevention, early detection and rapid response and control. Early detection and rapid response depend on prioritizing and monitoring sites at risk for arrival or secondary spread of nonindigenous species. Such monitoring efforts require sufficient biosecurity budgets to be effective and meet management or policy directives for reduced risk of introduction. Such consideration of risk reduction is rarely considered, however. Here, we review the concepts of acceptable level of risk (ALOR) and associated costs with respect to nonindigenous species and present a framework for aligning risk reduction priorities with available biosecurity resources. We conclude that available biosecurity resources may be insufficient to attain stated and desired risk reduction. This outcome highlights the need to consider policy and management directives when beginning a biosecurity program to determine the feasibility of risk reduction goals, given available resources

Proposed decision-support framework to incorporate Type II errors and ALOR early in program design.

<p>k’ = ratio between the acceptable Type I error rate (E_I) and acceptable Type II error rate (E_II); and k = ratio between costs of Type II (C_II) and Type I (C_I) errors.</p

Type I and II errors and costs for the monitoring for EDRR case study.

<p><b>Variables to be determined are <i>x</i></b>_{<b><i>1</i></b>}<b>for Scenario 1 and <i>x</i></b>_{<b><i>2</i></b>}<b>for Scenario 2</b>.</p